Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit Hold'em - 5 players

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with T J
2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls

Flop: (9 SB) A 6 Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero ?

3rd hand at the table, no reads on SB or BB.

I get 1:10 for my gutshot + BD Flush Draw, so ill call at least. But is raising better?

Pro raise:
- There's a good chance to get a free river
- I can get SB to fold many hands (KJ, KT, JT, small PP, 6x with a )
- I might even get BB to fold (not likely though)

Pro Call:
- this flop hits BB 3bet range hard, so he might 3bet after a raise
- I have only few value raising hands in my range (A6, 66, maybe AQ), so i should have few bluff raising hands as well

What do you think?

BeXXs

Seems like a great hand to choose as a bluff raise.

I would just peel... we get 3bet a lot which is terrible for such a weak draw. And when we get 3bet, we trap ourselves and end up peeling turn too. It is somewhat close, but I do not much like our chances of sawing through a passive sb (often call stations) and a strong range. I would need a favorable read/image to consider this one.

so you have like no bluff range there?

I feel like my flush draws are plenty in this spot. A .50/1.00 BB's 3bet range is going to be pretty strong here on average.

Getting 3bet and bet into on the turn with our crappy draw is a disaster that will happen quite often... it's actually cheaper to raise air if you want to bluff more because you can just fold to the 3bet instead of getting murdered for 1.5 more big bets with crap equity. We also lose out on the call flop ----> turn goes check check chances if we raise.

I misread it and thought he did have a flush draw... whoops.

Don't lie dude... you're a 20/40-30/60 Bovada spazreg, so you snap raise any gutshot there

If we dont' turn this into a bluff, then we're not turning any non-FDs into bluffs..
Having no non-FD bluffs is a significant exploitative adjustment, IMO.

Are we convinced, at these stakes, given the PF action, that BB's range is always really strong?

Against a good aggressive BB, I'm 4b'ing cap, and as played bluff-raising flop.

Not sure what you mean by a free river. If you raise, it should be with the intention of barreling most of the time, not free-carding.
You should be value raising most of your aces. Even if you are outkicked some of the time, the times you are best, it is huge to price SB out of one pair or GS type hands.

Again, it depends on the range you give BB. If his 3b range is nitty, it will be mostly medium/big PPs, big aces, broadways, suited aces. You should exploit his imbalance and play passively, since, as you point out, this flop smacks his range hard.

Interesting point. I compared free carding and barreling turn on a blank turn with cardrunnersEV with a BB range of
44+,A5s+,KJs+,A8o+,KJo+ (~15%).
Turns out that barreling turn is indeed +EV even if BB takes all of his range to the turn (i.e. no 3bet flop) and only folds his GS and some small PP there.
Interesting what a small fraction BB needs to fold to make the turn bluff profitable.

We only have a BDFD. I'm sure you posted this assuming we have the GSSD + FD, but capping J-hi gutshot is just mondo spew at any stakes, especially $0.50 OL (where I expect these guys to have hit this flop fairly often, incredibly hard when they do, and don't know how to fold like 99).

Anyway, OP, call flop. I'd probably bluff bet or bluff raise if a heart hits on the turn. Yes it sucks to try a bluff raise at this level, but sometimes you have to do it IMO, without a read that the guy's 3B range is totally SD bound on A hi board.