Both villains are regulars, more towards the Lag/Tag - Laggy side preflop. I don't expect either villain to spew postflop in this situation.

First, do we like a flop 3-bet? As played, I think the turn decision is close as well?

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with 2 A
2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB caps!, Hero calls, SB calls

Flop: (12 SB) 2 K A (3 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets?, SB calls, BB caps!, Hero calls, SB calls

Turn: (12 BB) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls?, SB calls

River: (15 BB) 7 (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls

I think the flop 3! is good. There are 6 combos of AK versus 3 combos of KK and 1 combo of AA. Furthermore, there are some flush draws out there. Once SB coldcalls 2, he is on a flush draw most of the time and maybe a donkishly played AQ or something the rest of the time. Turn should be a raise because BB's play is still consistent with AK (and occasionally a weaker ace) and SB is probably drawing dead. As played the river raise is mandatory because SB has a flush and BB doesn't have a full house.

Turn is a raise. BB should definitely be capping AQ on the flop. Once he has that or worse, you're way ahead on the turn. If he 3b, call down. You should have the nuts on the river every time with that action.

noob question:

How far "ahead" do we have to be to raise. can it be quantified exactly?

eg Vs AA, KK, AK we have 58% equity on turn.

Vs AA, KK, AK, AQs we have 65% equity on turn.
Vs AA, KK, AK, AQs AQo we have 76% equity on turn.

Im assuming it cant just be >50%, because we will have to call down Vs a turn 3-Bet. we need a minimum equity advantage that is higher than 50%

That can't be answered without making assumptions about the 3rd player and what BB would 3b the turn with. Your best bet is to calculate the ev of raising and the ev of calling then compare.

Actually, BB shouldn't be capping AQ on the flop. Against a range of all Ax & broadway flush draws from SB & Btn, he only has 30% equity, and I think that's an optimistic assumption for BB. However, that doesn't mean he won't cap AQ on the flop.

If we assume BB's range is only AK+ (this was my assumption at the time), I have about 50% equity on the turn; however, all the overlay is coming from the SB drawing dead. Obviously we want SB to continue in the hand, so do we think a turn raise gets him to fold anything in his range? If so, what do you think he might fold in this spot? I'm torn between raising and just calling because I want him to continue, but not sure how often he'll continue facing 2 cold.

Nemesis, I don't think these stoves are accurate because your not consider the range SB has in this spot. SB's range is almost entirely Ax, with a few combos of KQhh, QJhh (maybe). Given this, BB's range shifts more towards KK and away from AK because SB often holds an Ace. Add in the 3rd player and you'll notice our equity drops to about 50%, even though the 3rd player has basically no equity in the pot.

I disagree with those ranges. I believe the situation more closely resembles:

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AhKc2h
Equity Win Tie
BU 32.30% 28.22% 4.08% { AdAs, AdAc, AsAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KhQh, AdJd, AsJs, AcJc, KhJh, QhJh, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ad9d, As9s, Ac9c, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ad7d, As7s, Ac7c, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ad6d, As6s, Ac6c, Kh6h, Qh6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Ad5d, As5s, Ac5c, Kh5h, Qh5h, 6h5h, Ad4d, As4s, Ac4c, Kh4h, 5h4h, Ad3d, As3s, Ac3c, Kh3h, 4h3h, Ad2d, As2s, Ac2c, Kd2d, Ks2s, AdKh, AdKs, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, As9d, As9h, As9c, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad8c, As8d, As8h, As8c, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, As7d, As7h, As7c, Ac7d, Ac7h, Ac7s, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad6c, As6d, As6h, As6c, Ac6d, Ac6h, Ac6s, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad5c, As5d, As5h, As5c, Ac5d, Ac5h, Ac5s, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad4c, As4d, As4h, As4c, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ac4s, Ad3h, Ad3s, Ad3c, As3d, As3h, As3c, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ac3s, Ad2s, Ad2c, As2d, As2c, Ac2d, Ac2s }
SB 27.13% 23.24% 3.88% { AdAs, AdAc, AsAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c, QTs+, JTs, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KhQh, AdJd, AsJs, AcJc, KhJh, AdTd, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, Ad9d, As9s, Ac9c, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Kh8h, 9h8h, Ad7d, As7s, Ac7c, 8h7h, Ad6d, As6s, Ac6c, 7h6h, Ad5d, As5s, Ac5c, Ad4d, As4s, Ac4c, Ad3d, As3s, Ac3c, Ad2d, As2s, Ac2c, QJo, AdKh, AdKs, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, As9d, As9h, As9c, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad8c, As8d, As8h, As8c, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, As7d, As7h, As7c, Ac7d, Ac7h, Ac7s, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad6c, As6d, As6h, As6c, Ac6d, Ac6h, Ac6s, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad5c, As5d, As5h, As5c, Ac5d, Ac5h, Ac5s }
BB 40.58% 34.33% 6.25% { AQs, AQo }

There's quite a bit of uncertainty about sb's range without some analysis of his play, but I believe it's a good deal wider on average then Ax+/superdraw. My experience with Lagtags as well as my own play leads me to expect bt's range to be a lot wider as well. In any case, calling with AQ has the additional disadvantage of missing significant value when ahead. AQ clearly beats sb almost always after his flop call, however this same call is likely to cause bb to check through a FD on the turn in addition to checking through many rivers with a weak Ax. I would be capping more then AQ in BB spot. My line would be about AT.

My assumption would be that someone that donk/calls the flop is unable to fold any FD on the turn. I doubt he folds a strong Ax either. Perhaps A9ish.

I can't see why 3-betting weak flush draws is a good play for btn after both SB and BB have shown strength preflop and on a board like this. What's it trying to achieve? It's very unlikely that BTN can knock them both out of the hand at any point and the risk of getting capped has got to be high after all this aggro.

Leader, just because there is uncertainty in SB's play, doesn't mean we should assume his range contains all possible hands he may play this way. You've included hands like QJo, JTs, which while he may play this way, I think we need to consider/estimate how often he will actually play these hands this way and adjust accordingly. Leading QJo/JTs 100% of the time in this spot seems clear to me as a bad play. I would guess most regs feel the same. Given we believe SB is a regular as well, we should assume there is a good chance he has the same view and at least reduce the chances he leads a hand like QJo by removing some combos.

Same thing can be said for hands like A5o or 9h8h for same/other player(s) in this hand.

I will admit I forgot that SB's range is generally capped at about AQ/A2s when he just calls the flop 3-bet and BB is almost always ahead of SB with AQ at that point.

I agree that's why I didn't include QTo and JTo. The only way to truly assess this spot is empirically. I have the code, but I'm going to guess that even with tens of millions of hands the sample size for tags donking this kind of board in a 3w capped pot is extremely small. Barring that it's just a guessing game. If your guess is different, you should trust your own judgement of course.

Donking any hand in SB's spot is a bad play as the flop will be bet nearly 100% and splitting your range leaks information unnecessarily.

I don't agree esp wrt 98.

Anyone else folding A6/A7 and down in btns shoes facing the BB raise on the flop?