Think about a near the bubble spot. No limit holdem tourney. Three players left, two spots pay. You have 10 big blinds on the button. Small blind has 5 big blinds. Big blind has 25 big blinds.
What's a good shoving range look like there? I think it would be rather tight because folding will be profitable due to the 5 big blind stack that will shove quite wide and the big blind who will call quite wide.
So in order for shoving to be correct, the ev of shoving a particular hand must be higher than the ev of folding, which will be positive.
three left, three spots pay in this $5 no limit holdem tourney. I have 14 big blinds, small blind has 5 big blinds, big blind has 20 big blinds.
I get A8o on the button. I think shoving is +ev chip wise, but the chance of the small blind getting eliminated this hand is quite high. I fold. Small blind shoves, big blind calls. Small blind gets knocked out and I move up the pay table.
Then of course I got all in with A5o and lost to KTs. gg.
Everyone folds -- did everyone gain EV?
Or maybe blinds are exempt. 7 folds to the blinds. SB calls, checks to a showdown. You're saying the SB and BB lost EV on that hand?
Or is EV not zero sum?
Also, there's a distinct difference between chip ev and $ ev. If there's a chance that someone will go broke, and if someone going broke equates to profit for us, then folding will always be + $ ev. This is always true in tourneys despite folding being 0 chip ev.
Everyone folds -- did everyone gain EV?
Or maybe blinds are exempt. 7 folds to the blinds. SB calls, checks to a showdown. You're saying the SB and BB lost EV on that hand?
Or is EV not zero sum?
My current understand is that the ones who are near the bubble with a poor stack are -EV when they fold as their options turn from bad to worse.