Hi guys, here is another situation to think about. Villain is a new guy at the table.





I hate to fold, especially on the river, but I believe it was my mistake to call, I win if he is too aggressive A10, could be some other aces, I split AK and lose to anything else.
What do you guys think, what is the bottom hand I shall call with: pair of nines with any kicker?
Shall I fold pairs below 9?

I'd call any pair, since he could (and should?) vbet AK high here.

I cap pf and fold turn

u fold turn with maybe 10 outs?

there is no need to cap preflop. You are focus to go to the showdown most of the time and if you hit you can play for value on the turn. Otherwise you can let the pot small.

I would fold the turn as well. We just beat AT here. We do not have a read that BB is a maniac who bluffs A6 or A7 or even turns 44 into a bluff. Furthemore in villians mind we should have nailed the board with our open raising range compared with the 3bet calling range here.

Thank you guys. I didn't even consider folding turn here, you really made me look at this situation at different angle, but nevertheless I still think calling the turn is pretty reasonable, considering not that small pot and that AK and A10 is a big portion of his 3bet range PF, although if put in his range not all A10, but only A10s, the situation will be about even for me.

I fold turn and river as played.

Why nobody of you didn't even consider calling the turn? I've run the situation through cardrunners ev, made some calculations at paper, even with very tight 3bet range from BB, we still have value to call. Can you give me reasoning to fold the turn? Is that because we are not sure what to do with various river cards, or we just try to lower dispertion in a near zero EV situation, something else?

Can u post ur calculation here

I cap pf, call turn, fold river, against new guy without any info maybe call river too

AA/QQ/JJ - 9 hands - 4 outs - (4*5.2-40)*9/44/55.5 = -0.07076
KK - 3 hands - 7 outs - (7*5.2-37)*3/44/55.5= -0.00074
1010 - 6 hands - 5 outs- (5*5.2-39)*6/44/55.5= -0.03194
AKc - 1 hand - 35 outs for a split- (35*4.2/2-9)*1/44/55.5= 0.02641
AKo/AKsp - 8hands - split- 4.2/2*8/55.5=0.30270
AQc- 1 hand - 5 outs- (5*5.2-39)*1/44/55.5= -0.00532
AQo/AQsp/AJo/AJsp - 16 hands - 7 outs- (7*5.2-37)*16/44/55.5= -0.00391
AJd - 1 hand - 6 outs- (6*5.2-38)*1/44/55.5= -0.00278
With 50% discount
99 - 3/2= 1.5 hands - 4 outs- (4*5.2-40)*1.5/44/55.5= -0.01179
88- 3 hands - 10 outs- (10*5.2-34)*3/44/55.5= 0.02211
A10o - 4.5 hands - 37 outs - (37*5.2-7)*4.5/44/55.5= 0.34164
KQc - 0.5 hands - 5 outs- (5*5.2-39)*0.5/44/55.5= -0.00266
KQh/sp - 1 hand - 7 outs- (7*5.2-37)*1/44/55.5= -0.00024
Total 55.5 hands
Total EV of calling turn = 0.56272 or 3.37$
For some reason cardrunners ev with the same range gives me result 3.91$, probably made mistake somewhere.
More than half of this EV comes from A10o, which I took already with a 50% discount
If we exclude it we still have 2.23$ from CR EV.

I think his range is a bit wider on the turn as he is 3Beting your CO open, maybe you should consider some more hands in your calculation. Lower pocket pairs, some Ax, KT, JQ, Q9s, 9Ts come to mind...

I've rarely seen anyone 3bet those hands BB vs co.