Villain is a 24/17/2.3 He has C/R'd the turn before with the nuts, but thats the only time i've seen him showdown a turn c/r. Here the board gets as bad as it can get for me on the river.
UTG was a total drooler 72/30 so I was isolating from the button against his enormous range pre.
He could have 9 combos of J8 and 1 combo of J4s. That alone makes this an easy river call. The villain betting the river is not as scary as it looks. A lot of aggressive players are gonna bet that river card with J8/J4s.
bottom two pair is a bit too far down in our distribution imo to call down here along with other one pairs pretty much
we also already have a very large range for calling him down with all our Ax with one spade and a few combos of sets as well.
Assume the J helped the villain on the turn. Then count up the combos of the logical hands that beat you and compare them to the logical hands you beat (J8/J4s). Then compare that ratio to the pots odds you're getting to make the crying call on the river. We'll you'll see is that you have a very easy profitable call on the river.
basically by river i broke it down to him having either a flush or j8 as the only two pair as i had it that villain would fold J4 pre-flop. and we do have enough equity to call
so should we conclude to always call with two pair on a turned->rivered 4flush?
At a glance I'll guess that having the J in your hand takes away from the possible two pairs he could have, causing your equity to drop.
I fold the river, but I think it may be wrong since you just called his turn raise you might have induced a bluff so you could be forced to call. Unless you have a history of not 3 betting flushes in this spot your hand is pretty face up as (no flush)
To keep the analysis simple let's just assume the turned J helps the villain, and let's also assume the villain would call preflop out of the BB with any two suited in that spot. So on the river the villain has either a turned spade flush, J4, J8o, or J8, J8, J8.
There are 36 combos of spade flushes, and there are a total of 10 combos of hands you beat (J4s,J8o,J8s). So on the river you are a 3.6:1 underdog and the pot odds you're getting are 9.8:1. So you have a profitable river call.
Maybe I am missing something, but it appears that none of these stoves have slowplayed flop sets or a turned set in them. Those have to be possible I would think and further reduce our equity.
I would eliminate AA and JJ, but I could see 44 and 88 being in his range also. Also, do we really think he would raise the turn with those small pocket pairs with a single spade? I feel like we are overstating his range with the hands we beat and understating it with the hands that beat us.
I will try to run a range later when I get a break at work. This is something I meant to do yesterday after posting the hand for some feedback.
I basically left in every semi-bluff he could have performed on the turn as well as every made hand that he would be likely to raise and I have us at 10.87%.
If the stove is correct this is a very marginal call. I am getting 9% with 10.87% equity.
The main problem I have with all this analysis is that we are running these stoves under the assumption that villain will value bet the river with any 2 pair or better, which imo, is not the case. I think its possible villain will value bet the river with 2 pair, but we should at least discount it some. I've seen many villains check sets on this river.
Antneye, I think there are some problems with your stove. I would remove any 1 pair+FD hands. These don't make sense to C/R as a bluff or for value. I would remove AJ/AQ as he probably 3-bets these preflop and I remove A8/A4 as we should assume he fast plays at least some strong hands in this spot. I would also remove hands like J2s-32s, I don't a 24/17 defends these in the BB 3-ways.
I also think its unlikely BB semi-bluffs every GS+FD on the turn. Maybe a couple, but not a ton.
After playing around with stove some, I think we do have a crying call on the river with A4. Villain only has to bet worse 2 pair about half the time to make it a profitable call.
I basically left in every semi-bluff he could have performed on the turn as well as every made hand that he would be likely to raise and I have us at 10.87%.
If the stove is correct this is a very marginal call. I am getting 9% with 10.87% equity.
For the sake of simplicity, I say throw out all the semi-bluffing hands (including the pocket pairs with a flush draw). With another guy still in the pot, villain is not very likely to be semi-bluffing the turn especially given the fact that your turn bet shows a lot of strength given that you were called in two spots on the flop. Also, throw out all one pair (on the flop) Ax hands since this villain looks like a decent player based on stats, and a decent player is usually gonna check/raise the flop in that spot (and of course hands like AQ,AJs and probably AJo are gonna 3bet preflop).
I left out A8,44,88,84s,A4s cuz I was assuming the J helped villain, plus those hands would also be poorly played and this guy looks decent. However, let's now assume all those hands are possible. Now on the river there's 46 combos of hands that beat you, 11 combos you beat, and one combo you tie. Getting 9.8 to 1 pot odds, this is still a call. And even if we assume the villain is only betting a worse hand than you 50% of the time cuz he's scared of a flush, it's still a profitable call.
Call the river. (notice this analysis assumes no illogically played hands that you beat [always a small % that helps make it a call] and yet it's STILL a call)
I agree that it is imperfect (my stove I mean). I agree that a lot of those hands do not make sense to semi-bluff, I know I wouldn't be raising a lot of them on the turn.
I think regardless of the stoves, this boils down to whether I think this guy would bet into 2 players without a spade and I just didn't feel like he would. We could have a call against his full range that he got to the river with, but what really matters is how we fare against the portion of his range that he would bet on the river and the truth is we just don't know. I see this as very close, and when faced with a close spot we should probably just call and take a note.
Edit: deleted a sentence that was totally wrong. Re-read the hh wrong.
Two Plus Two
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