Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
Like boc has already mentioned, there is a massive difference in hands/hr in live PLO vs. live LHE. I have never played live PLO, but half as many hands/hr as LHE sounds about right.
Like boc also mentioned, survivorship is huge. In my very limited experience playing live at Commerce, I def noticed that in less than a year, a huge chunk of the live pros vanished. I would ask about them and they were all basically out of the game. I also noticed that most live players were brutally ignorant about variance. There is simply no ****ing way all the live pros who claim to make 1 BB/hr are making anywhere near 1 BB/hr. They play too poorly. And while the games are soft, they are not so soft that the average reg is pulling over 3 BB/100 out of the games while excellent online players were only pulling 1 BB/100 on Stars. Live LHE players can run very hot for 2 years or more and think they are much better than they really are.
What has not been mentioned so far is the fact that many high stakes live PLO games play very deep and have a lot of weird straddles. Both of these factors send variance through the roof. Also, excellent PLO players are usually LAGTAGs. Playing LAGTAG has a much more dramatic effect on PLO variance than it does in LHE.
All you have to do is play around in pokerdope a bit to see that PLO requires 4-5x the sample size as LHE to reach the same confidence in winrate.
In conclusion... I do not think that "good" live LHE pros make 1 BB/hr. Something like .6-.7 is more reasonable. PLO = way less hands/hr. Live high stakes PLO = playing very deep + weird straddles. Live LHE pros can obviously go on horrible stretches for a year or more. And PLO variance is about 5x worse than LHE. That is why I estimated that it is possible to get completely ****ed over in live PLO for 5 years straight. If this is incorrect, please back it up with some numbers and I will check it out. I honestly do not know what the standard deviation in live high stakes PLO looks like. I am sure being 9-handed helps reduce the variance compared to online 6-max, but it seems like playing super deep + straddling has the potential to make the variance even more absurd than online.
If you actually played a yearish of live limit holdem and don't think there was a comically drastic skill gap difference between those games and one game running with 5 world beaters and 8suppoke or whatever ran online I guess maybe you ran bad with the state of the games or the games you played in. I wish I had more data for me to utilize from my own results but I don't. So I don't really know if people can reach that 1/hr winrate people so often claim. My guess would be with some relatively nitty game selection it could be done, but yes if you are playing in most 60 120- 200-400 lineups a lot of "good" players will fall in the .4-.8 range long term.
The plo vs lhe argument I actually have zero insight other than that the fun players in these plo games are going to be making massive massive mistakes that will increase winrates drastically on a per 100 basis. I never disagreed about the variance of plo being higher or , my contention was only that per/100 winrates just have to be higher live than online.