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2016 NC/LC THREAD 2016 NC/LC THREAD

05-14-2016 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
There is simply no ****ing way all the live pros who claim to make 1 BB/hr are making anywhere near 1 BB/hr.
I've heard people say they make over $200/hr playing 40/80 though.
05-14-2016 , 03:49 PM
I've now gone through 3 runs at learning plo. Tough game. Definitely didn't try hard enough.

Anyone try ploquickpro? I thought about it but just stopped playing plo instead.
05-14-2016 , 08:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
Like boc has already mentioned, there is a massive difference in hands/hr in live PLO vs. live LHE. I have never played live PLO, but half as many hands/hr as LHE sounds about right.

Like boc also mentioned, survivorship is huge. In my very limited experience playing live at Commerce, I def noticed that in less than a year, a huge chunk of the live pros vanished. I would ask about them and they were all basically out of the game. I also noticed that most live players were brutally ignorant about variance. There is simply no ****ing way all the live pros who claim to make 1 BB/hr are making anywhere near 1 BB/hr. They play too poorly. And while the games are soft, they are not so soft that the average reg is pulling over 3 BB/100 out of the games while excellent online players were only pulling 1 BB/100 on Stars. Live LHE players can run very hot for 2 years or more and think they are much better than they really are.

What has not been mentioned so far is the fact that many high stakes live PLO games play very deep and have a lot of weird straddles. Both of these factors send variance through the roof. Also, excellent PLO players are usually LAGTAGs. Playing LAGTAG has a much more dramatic effect on PLO variance than it does in LHE.

All you have to do is play around in pokerdope a bit to see that PLO requires 4-5x the sample size as LHE to reach the same confidence in winrate.

In conclusion... I do not think that "good" live LHE pros make 1 BB/hr. Something like .6-.7 is more reasonable. PLO = way less hands/hr. Live high stakes PLO = playing very deep + weird straddles. Live LHE pros can obviously go on horrible stretches for a year or more. And PLO variance is about 5x worse than LHE. That is why I estimated that it is possible to get completely ****ed over in live PLO for 5 years straight. If this is incorrect, please back it up with some numbers and I will check it out. I honestly do not know what the standard deviation in live high stakes PLO looks like. I am sure being 9-handed helps reduce the variance compared to online 6-max, but it seems like playing super deep + straddling has the potential to make the variance even more absurd than online.

If you actually played a yearish of live limit holdem and don't think there was a comically drastic skill gap difference between those games and one game running with 5 world beaters and 8suppoke or whatever ran online I guess maybe you ran bad with the state of the games or the games you played in. I wish I had more data for me to utilize from my own results but I don't. So I don't really know if people can reach that 1/hr winrate people so often claim. My guess would be with some relatively nitty game selection it could be done, but yes if you are playing in most 60 120- 200-400 lineups a lot of "good" players will fall in the .4-.8 range long term.

The plo vs lhe argument I actually have zero insight other than that the fun players in these plo games are going to be making massive massive mistakes that will increase winrates drastically on a per 100 basis. I never disagreed about the variance of plo being higher or , my contention was only that per/100 winrates just have to be higher live than online.
05-14-2016 , 10:05 PM
Riddle me this. If your sd/hour in PLO is 3.5x your LHE sd/hour and you get half as many hands an hour, what does your PLO win rate need to be in order to have the same risk or variance adjusted return as LHE?
05-15-2016 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cottonseed1
Riddle me this. If your sd/hour in PLO is 3.5x your LHE sd/hour and you get half as many hands an hour, what does your PLO win rate need to be in order to have the same risk or variance adjusted return as LHE?
Risk adjusted return = return per unit risk

W= PLO winrate
L = LHE winrate
A= PLO STD/hr
B = LHE STD/hr
C = PLO hands/hr
D= LHE Hands/hr

A=3.5B
C=0.5D

Return PLO = WC = 0.5DW
Return LHE = DL = 2CL

Return PLO/STD PLO = Return LHE/STD LHE

(WC)/(3.5B)=(2CL)/B

(3.5B)(2CL)=CWB
7BCL=CWB
7L=W

PLO win rate must be 7 times as great
05-15-2016 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bicyclekick
I've now gone through 3 runs at learning plo. Tough game. Definitely didn't try hard enough.

Anyone try ploquickpro? I thought about it but just stopped playing plo instead.

It is a solid learning tool. I had the pleasure to play some PLO with John at Aria the summer he won his bracelet and since they were still in the early stages he gave me a membership.
I would say it is worth a go if you are willing to commit the time to learning.
05-15-2016 , 02:03 PM
BK, I would probably look elsewhere for PLO training. PLOQuickPro is done by DC's Kasino Krime. His videos on DC were very average imo. The site looks scammy and "I won a bracelet" is certainly not a good indicator of someone's skill at a poker game.

As of about a year ago, I felt like paying $100/month on runitonce for the premium videos + posting hands on 2p2 and RIO + reviewing your sessions carefully was the best way to go. That being said, I did think that the $10/month videos on RIO were pretty bad. Also, there have been questions as to whether or not the $10/month coaches are even winning players.
05-15-2016 , 04:04 PM
Yeah I paid for 4 months of 100 per month runitonce. I watched most of the videos I wanted to...definitely some good stuff but a bit underwhelming sometimes too. Like tommy angelos stuff on there is pretty bad if you're a seasoned pro/read any tommy before...
05-15-2016 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
"I won a bracelet" is certainly not a good indicator of someone's skill at a poker game.
ZOMG is still on 2p2, you know.

Quote:
As of about a year ago, I felt like paying $100/month on runitonce for the premium videos + posting hands on 2p2 and RIO + reviewing your sessions carefully was the best way to go. That being said, I did think that the $10/month videos on RIO were pretty bad. Also, there have been questions as to whether or not the $10/month coaches are even winning players.
I don't play PLO but I've seen a few Galfond videos before and was impressed. I guess you have to pay up to get Galfond?
05-15-2016 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
PLOQuickPro is done by DC's Kasino Krime. His videos on DC were very average imo.
What's "DC"?
05-15-2016 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
There is simply no ****ing way all the live pros who claim to make 1 BB/hr are making anywhere near 1 BB/hr. They play too poorly. And while the games are soft, they are not so soft that the average reg is pulling over 3 BB/100 out of the games while excellent online players were only pulling 1 BB/100 on Stars. Live LHE players can run very hot for 2 years or more and think they are much better than they really are.

.
The thing is BB/100 is an extremely easy stat to manipulate and it would be relatively easy to make 1-1.5 BB/hour of one wanted, you would just have less money overall.

If the really good players cosmtnstly game changed, seat changed, refused to start tough/bad games...raced people to the cage or other games when bad players bust they could easily crush most mid stakes games for 1BB/hour. The difference is at the end of the year they may have 800-1000 hours of Live play in while some other good player can not do the other stuff and play 2-3k hours at 3/4 BB hour or whatever
05-15-2016 , 08:18 PM
True. I now propos that we all start posting winrates in BBs/year from now on.
05-15-2016 , 11:21 PM
Hoppscott, I definitely agree that 1 BB/hr is possible live and would fully expect to earn at least that much myself. I have probably 8-900 hours of live experience, mostly at Commerce. The 40/80-60/120 games were def light years softer than 8sup games. But the pros were mostly just awful. Like I can see the "good" Commerce pros who would be losers on Stars making .6-.7 BB/hr for sure. The games are that soft. And there were def a few pros who could prolly make 1 BB/hr. But I think the vast majority of live pros are FOS. Remember back when all the 2p2ers were claiming 2-3 BB/100 online winrates? And then PTR came along and exposed all of them as frauds? I think a live PTR would be hilarious.

Pig4bill, Galfond does 1 free video per month for the $10 folks. And ya, his are by far the best imo. There are other beast online pros coaching, but their accents and English are brutal.

Verona, DC = Deuces Cracked... a video training site

Jon_locke, I don't agree with you. I think you mean well, but are too immersed in live culture to accept how FOS and ****ty at poker your live friends are.
05-15-2016 , 11:56 PM
I don't think you're understanding Jon's point, Unguarded
05-16-2016 , 01:53 AM
Ya, my response did not make very much sense. I felt like Jon was making a counterpoint to my quote. Maybe not?

But ya for sure... game selection is huge. I didn't notice very many players who did extreme game/seat selection live compared to online. At least at Commerce, there def seemed to be a lot of social stigma when it came to douche behavior. But I am sure live bumhunters are out there.
05-16-2016 , 09:50 AM
I really don't understand this talk of 0.5-1BB/hr. At live 2/5 FR PLO win rates are easily 40BB/100 ~$75/hr. Plug that in your variance calculator and never worry again.
05-16-2016 , 10:46 AM
unguarded: I'm not disagreeing with you. Just take this example: if you wanted to crossbook whether I could beat 20-40 for say $50-60 hours over a given sample I think I could take the bet and win. Can I play 20-40 every day in any lineup and win $60/ hour, definitely not.

Last edited by Jon_locke; 05-16-2016 at 11:06 AM.
05-16-2016 , 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by networth
I really don't understand this talk of 0.5-1BB/hr. At live 2/5 FR PLO win rates are easily 40BB/100 ~$75/hr. Plug that in your variance calculator and never worry again.
Yes, just like every live FRLHE player is winning 4 BB/100.
05-16-2016 , 03:10 PM
You misunderstood me. I was talking to decent players like UG and elo. But you should be able to squeak out $15/hr.
05-16-2016 , 07:39 PM
ZING!
05-16-2016 , 10:11 PM
Let's all whip out our BB/100 over the last 1mm hand sample. who wants to start
05-17-2016 , 07:05 AM
Scuse me while I whip this out...
05-22-2016 , 10:58 PM
Jllama gonna win the stars 21k buyin HU NL. Go Jllama go!!!
05-22-2016 , 11:37 PM
Congrats Jllama, decent score?

"Jake Abdalla ‏@JLlama99 · 4h4 hours ago

I tried to fool the Baron but the Baron fooled me, got 2nd gg"
05-23-2016 , 02:03 AM
Congrats!

      
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