Hey p4b who are you voting for? I would like to know to what degree I'm supposed to hate you these days.

Hello.

Elo, random jackasses always appear in this thread out of nowhere to correct me if I am even slightly wrong about something. I based the 70-85% likelihood of going busto with a 50 BB bankroll heads up vs. a non-fish on the assumption that your winrate would be 1-2 BB/100 which is quite generous considering that you are on tilt and aren't a huhu specialist. Your standard deviation heads up is around 24 BB/100. You can to to pokerdope.com and plug those numbers in to the cash game variance calculator if you would like to see for yourself. These are not "facts". They are facts. Further, they are facts that even drooling 8/16 livetard wannabe semi-pros know quite well.

Not the 8/16 livetard wannabe semi-pros in my games. The guys in my games don't even know how to masturbate, much less do math.

Doris Roberts is dead? ****.

I'm not sure what level anyone is on...but lol at thinking like any live pros have an understanding of standard deviations and winrates and how it applies.

Few and far in between.

Not knowing how to masterbate seems more likely I agree.

It's not that they don't know how to masturbate, it's that they don't realize they would be better off doing it than playing poker.

Hey I was playing Cepheus and I got kings. The suits not relevant as it was rainbow turn.

I 3 bet oop and bet flop of 893. Turn is 2; 8932 I go for x/r. He checks back. River is 89327 and I bet to at least get in a bet. Call. He has QT.

So getting 5:1 he needs to beat 1/6 of my 3 bet range or at least his perfect 3bet range.

So he loses against any wire, 2 cards 7 or higher, etc.

Well mine and cepheus 3 bet oop range does not have a ton of Q654s J654s 45s 46s.

This does not add up to 16.66% or 1/6 of my range or whatever.

its river call is way better than your turn xr.

strong

That's not how GTO works. You are getting 4:1 on your river bluff so he should have around 4 calls for every fold out of the range of hands that he gets to river with after this action. It's actually a bit more complicated than that since he can raise as well.

Did not say that's how it works. He does not have odds to call against any 3 bet range. Your 4-1 ratio does not hold up because he can not win 20% of the time. So you actually understand gto somewhat.

The checkraise with overpair on turn is standard newall/cepheus line. There are 12 hits and a lot of hidden outs. If cepheus can use it on me why is it terrible to take that line in actual play?

He doesn't have to win 20% of the time vs your range. As an example, what if you only took this line with 99?

I'm not sure what you mean by the second part as this board texture makes xr your hand very bad (you should be barreling a ton of your range on the flop/turn and your hand is perfect to b/3b). "xr the overpair on the turn" is way too simplistic to be a newall/cepheus/equalibrium strategy as you have to consider the board texture and your whole range to decide the best strategy.

As far as the first part goes, nash equalibrium strategies do not take your range (or any opponent range) into account. So it doesn't matter what your range is in this or any other spot. Look at her line. I assume you've played the bot a fairly large amount and so you know her turn betting range is wide here. Of all the hands the bot checks on the end she needs to call 4 times for every 1 time she folds.

So she has a weak range to begin with and from that range she finds that QT is not in the lower bucket. Therefore she calls.

You have to keep in mind you are not playing vs a person and so many of the lines the bot takes will seem "bad". What's really happening though is you've encountered a different way to approach the game. Even the strongest players who rely most on a GTO approach are still people and thus will use many non-bot strategies. When you're playing a bot, however, you will not see these and so the game will seem alien to you. This is why many strong players consider the bot crushable when, at best, a very skilled HUHU player can beat it for a very small amount.

I've also thought the Vegas bot isn't as strong as the strongest HUHU bots I've seen (just IMO based on limited sample), but is still quite good and most of the stuff it does is sound.

We are getting tangled in our different thought processes and you are now looking at my perspective which cepheus does not care about. Let's straighten out the math: On the river cepheus is facing a 5 bet pot which he must call 1 which is 5-1 or 16.67%. Therefore cepheus MUST not fold more than 16.67%. So of his entire possible range he could have in that exact spot he can not fold more than 1 out of 6 the math won't allow it, but he will fold up to 16.67%. So he must fold with some of his range. There's sooo much to call with in the spot like AK KQ and other shows, baby wires like 55, baby matches like 2nd and 3rd pair. All the fold junk is what I wrote in first post like J4-6, Q4-6, 45, 46, 56, and the best foldable overs which is Q10. The problem with folding 45 is that it is the nut low and cepheus classically would
raise the river with 45.

Regarding the xr, I will take your advice into account and I appreciate and respect you. It's just when you have it written as basically a mandatory xr in philips first book and then I see cepheus do it every time I tend to favor their lines. The reason the line works with nearly 100% of the population is because you have top pair with usually 8 good outs if behind and easy for villian to hit the board with 12 hits. Compare this to top pair with 5 weak outs and 11 hits. It's a free checkraise in other words. Only way it would be more correct is if a Q was high card vs 10.

Again like with FF she (I prefer he cause it plays like a he) DOESN'T need to call 4 times for every time she folds. She actually needs to NOT fold 5 times for every time she folds in that spot at 5-1.

As far as cepheus playing bad or seeming bad, I don't feel that way. I play it every day sometimes only 20 hands is all I can take but it's the best player I've ever ever encountered ever. It's the most creative player in the world and actually scary to play. My heart races when I play cepheus but then on bovada 10/20 I'm calm because I at least know my opponents are easy.

I would avoid the vegas machine as there are rumors that could be cepheus. Cepheus comes off as bad to bad players but that's just how gto looks. Also, you mentioned that a strong huhu player could beat cepheus for a small amount. No, that would be completely impossible. There is not a human on this planet who can beat cepheus even for a little. Read brice's article on the cepheus project page for more info on this statement.

You are right though about things feeling alien to me and others at first though. That's the best part about playing cepheus. If you play it enough all that alien crap starts to look more par for the course. Just like when Bart Simpson got lost in France and all of a sudden he started speaking French basically thru osmosis that's how it feels lol.

Four simple points:

1) Cepheus checkraises this turn 100% of the time with KK so it's obviously not bad. Doing anything other than that, in fact, will sometimes be bad.

2) You are overestimating the GTO range for the following action: 3bet Pre, Bet flop, check/check turn, bet river

3) We are talking about Cepheus, not the Vegas bot. Cepheus is likely not beatable by any human. If a human spent his entire lifetime playing C and could play perfectly against him (maximally exploitative), he would not beat him for a statistically significant amount (at least according to U of A)

4) Cepheus doesn't always call with QT. His strategy is mixed for that hand.

For some reason I thought you were playing the Vegas bot.

I am shocked that it xr turn 100% w KK. Not the last time I'll be wrong about the bot tho... Also wtf does it plays more like a he mean lol

there seem to be a lot of misconception on what GTo look like for card game. I let you guys in a little secret. There this program call PIO solver it been in the market since march last year. It basically cardrunner ev on steroid. It actually solve unexploitable poker in a way card games should be instead of the old school thinking A-1 which is really awful for a game like poker. Everyone should be striving to play poker like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfMm...SxZqAwlcpSKfbG

I feel like lhe strategy are at least 3-4 years behind the top NL guys due to incentive. why use pio solver/gto rangebuilder+simple post flop to solve lhe when you can do the same for nl and make twice more with less time.

Also the games on bovada are super soft if people just table select better. Sometime I see regs battle against each other when there really no incentive to since you only able to play 4 tables anyway so while not play the best 4 ones?

Last note trying to play true GTO is mix strategy which is impossible unless you have RNG program open and use it every time(some guys does do this for nl which makes more sense). You guys are best playing really exploitable against fish by making sense of there plays. Btw I am not being nice since I know it actually takes +100 hours to play with this kind of program and the simple true is most people are too lazy or give up when something actually takes work to make money.

I mean I use Bovada basically exclusively to battle regs because it's fun.

DonJuan, I am going to spend approximately zero hours working with PIO solver because it is horribly inefficient use of my time to spend 100+ hours to gain .1 BB/100 at LHE. I have been such a magnificent LHE player for so long that I was already playing nearly perfectly as far back as 2010. In 2010, I was already within .1 BB/100 of perfect play. Today, I am still within .1 BB/100 of perfect play. My time is better spent studying PLO or mixed games where I am approximately 10 BB/100 and 3 BB/100 away from perfect play.

Also, I have some very bad news for you. All of your time spent studying LHE in the past 7 years has been nearly a complete waste. Like me, you were also playing within .1 BB/100 of perfect play as far back as 2009. I have not played with you lately, but it is possible that you have gone from playing within .1 BB/100 of perfect play to playing within .05 BB/100 of perfect play since 2009. That's right... you would have been better off working at McDonalds instead of studying LHE for the past 7 years. You thought you were on your way to becoming the LHE end boss, but really you were operating at the McDonalds level all along.

Unfortunately, Stars has essentially devolved into a bunch of McDonalds level players gang raping the occasional fish by playing within .05 BB/100 of perfect play. The high stakes heads up matches where one pro seemed to establish dominance over the other pros were nothing more than variance-induced illusions. When it comes to LHE, there has never been a point to anything at all since Black Friday. Live poker? Have fun reducing your life expectancy by 20 years. Bovada? The McDonalds player invasion is taking place as we speak. Slightly softer Stars games now that the SNE players have left? Stfu already.

LHE was a sinking ship over a decade ago. Today, it is decaying at the bottom of the ocean and even starving algae are wise enough to stay away. LHE winrates can only decline as more and more pros reach the McDonalds level. Even beating up weak tight senior citizens at 7 card stud makes more sense nowadays. At least then you are one step closer to learning mixed games.

If you are reading this post, something is seriously ****ing wrong with you. The fact that you have read this far indicates that you have at least some lingering interest in LHE even though everyone with half a brain has been telling you to learn NL, PLO, or mixed games for over a decade now. The McDonalds level is the best you can ever hope for. Oh well... things that are meant to be broken can never be fixed.

I'm hungry.

UG

Ahh. You plugged it in. Plug and chug. I shoulda thought of that before coming here posting. I'll plug it in tonight but I did suspect there was a mixed strategy with the QT call. Ill bet it leans towards fold or raise which I have no problem with maybe 20% calls.

Was playing it the other day and it limped on the button and my eyes lit up. I raised oop and it 3 bet! Nice. T8o for anyone wondering. So yeah mixed.

By plays like a 'he' I think it just plays like an arrogant a-hole. I guess girls can be that way but I just think of a he.

I think the McDonalds analogy applies even more to the most popular games like plo and nl. Start studying plo now and you will never catch up and make a buck. Plus every hand takes 20 minutes. At least with lhe I can have my fun, click some buttons, play super fast, fling some poo and be confident in my winrate. I can study if I want to increase my winrate but I really don't need to much and prolly only study 15 minutes a day. The reason for the longevity of lhe and why it will always be profitable relates here : http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue136/ in the publishers note by Mason.

If you want to play PLO with worse hourlies do it. Ill continue to play over 300 hands per hour on bovada while watching tv and certainly making much more than McDonalds. Even if I only made 20 bucks an hour on bovada it would still be a fun hobby and worth studying to improve and move up etc. I guess the quarter to 50cent lhe game might pay 7 bucks an hour or McD money but you shouldn't be stuck at quarters for too long right?