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Originally Posted by 57 On Red
In 1945, Truman didn't strictly know what the weapons would do. Oppenheimer told him that each bomb might kill just 10,000. And the Allies had been conducting unrestricted air warfare on a colossal scale for years. The March fire-raid on Tokyo probably killed more people than either of the atomic bombs, certainly more than Nagasaki. And there was the prospect of the war dragging on into 1946, with a full-scale invasion of Japan, at the cost of untold Allied and enemy lives. Hence the decision.
Well, you're clearly more studied than I am or most people about this, so when it comes to actual facts, I'll defer to you.
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But for the US, nowadays, to start a war, simply in pursuit of a policy, and chuck nuclear weapons around as a mere expedient... it would probably finish the US as a world power. The country would become a pariah, and China would pull the plug on the US economy any way they could.
That's what I don't get... Why isn't it in EVERY country's best interest to prevent NK from becoming fully nuclear capable? Why is it just the US (and SK obviously). It doesn't appear to be a matter of "policy" to me, but more of a matter of the preservation of human civilization. This guy is a madman nutcase, but I'll come to back to that...
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Kim can't actually use nuclear weapons for fear of nuclear retaliation.
He seems to have zero fear of provoking nuclear capable countries now. Perhaps because he knows we/no one will use them?
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He's probably not so mad that he would do that.
Probably? If you were putting me at ease before, this brings me right back to where I was. Probably isn't good enough. We know MAD works with Russia (or at least it has so far). We do NOT know this about NK! He's a nutbox. I've seen videos where their schools teach kids at an early age that he's more divine than Jesus Christ.
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Even 'crazy' dictators still act out of rational self-interest. They don't mind other people getting killed in wars, but the trouble with nuclear weapons is they can destroy the dictator's stuff. His palaces and... stuff. And his reign might end.
Yeah, that could be the case and I hope it is. Maybe he'll be more like China. I just don't want to place civilization's fate in it. There's a reason he's so gun-ho on obtaining nukes.
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The more likely danger is that Kim would try to export nuclear technology -- North Korea doesn't have any high-value exports otherwise. But that will need to be monitored by intelligence and diplomacy and possibly a bit of 'hard power' at the right point at the right time. Although it would have helped if the US had managed to stop the Pakistanis giving Kim nuclear technology in the first place.
Exporting technology isn't good either. I just think the whole situation is more dangerous than you and others, I guess. I'm not a tough guy. I'm a coward man. If I know you wanna kill me then I'm gonna try and kill you first before you have the chance.
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The vulnerability of Seoul is one of the main problems in dealing with North Korea.
Like I said, I put zero thought into Seoul. Maybe that ends my argument right there. But I still don't understand why the rest of the world isn't just as concerned as the United States about him becoming fully nuclear capable.