Fair enough. My mistake.

I'm asking you to name, say, 2 or 3 main causes.

It was a bubble. Banks pulled back credit and it turned into a reinforcing cycle with a massively overleveraged system

The only cycle here is your logic wheel. ... You absolutely refuse to acknowledge the trigger.

The bubble was the fuel.... What was the match? What suddenly changed? ... The level of defaults (especially higher in commuter regions) had absolutely nothing to do with a doubling and tripling of fuel costs inside 18 months?

Which 18 months? Subprime cracked starting in February '07. The housing bubble built while oil prices tripled.

Also, in a hypothetical world where oil was infinitely available at $20 a barrel, what do you think happens?

It would not be good for Bangladesh.

I meant specifically with regards to the pre-crash housing market.

I know. I can't think of much in this thread though other than fossil fuel production damn well better start decreasing.

It's nothing like that. People are pumping less because they are getting less. They haven't run out of "water". It's not complicated.

And along comes the village idiot to misunderstand and misrepresent what others are even saying. It's amazing that 6 years in, some are still straw-manning this discussion as if it's about "running out." But, he wasn't voted the forum's worst for no reason.

Well, no, because the market never assumed oil prices would always go up.

You don't seem to want to address my question. It's as if you don't want to concede the one factor that changed before the avalanche of defaults began.

On the linkage between energy prices and the financial crisis

This theory does not downplay the importance of subprime and ‘predatory’ lending practices as a major factor; rather it complements it and explains why events unfolded as they did. In essence, these subprime mortgages and lending practices provided the fuel for the financial crisis but high gasoline prices (almost doubled between from 2004-2006) was the match that started the fire.

...Energy prices doubled within a short period of time. New buyers thought twice about purchases in these commuter towns and for sure, assuming large debts given rising transportation costs were no longer appealing. Home prices in these commuter locations began to fall, which led to the reversing of the trend of rising home prices in all locations, and thus the housing crisis began.
- David Zilberman, professor of agriculture and resource economics

Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007

"The key word is, 'triggered,'" said JunJie Wu, an OSU economist and one of the authors of the paper. "This theory recognizes the role of subprime mortgages and lax lending practices as inflating the housing bubble, but high gasoline prices provided the trigger that burst the bubble."

... In their study, the authors show how low gas prices during the housing boom, in combination with easy access to credit and new mortgage products, made suburban houses affordable to a new class of homeowners characterized by low incomes, high leverage, low credit worthiness and long work commutes.

"As a result," Wu said, "housing markets were vulnerable."

When oil prices more than doubled between late 2006 and 2008, sending gas prices to $4.15 per gallon, the calculus of suburban living changed, according to the researchers.

You're asking me what I think happens in a world that does not exist. I'll pass.

I did address your question. The financial crisis was coming regardless of what happened with oil prices..

Again, that's great and all, but the façade was already coming down before this happened.

Jigg's theory is that $500-1000 annually caused people to default on their largest asset. This is interesting.

Yes, because energy prices were already rising rapidly, far ahead of normal inflation... The price point started spiking in 2001-2002.

It's unreal how far some will go to never concede an inch on this. But rising energy prices absolutely were the main trigger in popping the housing bubble. This has been shown over and over and over again by anyone other than irrational neoclassic economists.

It's not my theory... And it's far more than an extra $500-1000 per year for these families when oil goes from $20 to $100...

But don't let that stop you from hindering your routinely dishonest strategy here.

Yet during most of that time period house prices rose. But then because, reasons, peak oil caused and popped the housing bubble.

So there's no lag period as the bubble inflates? No inflection point? The relationship is perfectly inverse? As soon as oil prices started to rise, your logic dictates that home prices should have immediately begun to fall?

Do you want more links from economists stating the exact same as the three you're rejecting already? I have plenty of them. Or will you just keep pretending that one paid economist after another has it all wrong, and your strident and loyal allegiance to all things neo-classical is the "one true God?"

Yes more economists please

And your links say that high gas prices triggered the housing bubble to burst. Fine, who cares? If high gas prices didn't trigger the bubble bursting then something else obviously would have.

OK... Something else like what?

The point, troll, is that the ponzi scheme economy that you so fervently worship is still subject to the earth's natural limits ... Bubbles happen because of flawed monetary policy... Flawed monetary policy, ultimately, is the result of desperate attempts to maintain growth.... Growth that was easy when oil returned 50:1 (and more) on its investment... But has become next to impossible when oil now returns closer to 7:1 on it. ... Unfortunately, people like you still insist growth is easy, and net energy has nothing to do with it. ... We're all rapidly learning otherwise... It will get worse.

What would have caused the housing bubble to burst if not oil? I have no idea. It is unknowable. But certainly something would have.

The problem is this: You cannot tell us when it will get bad, how bad it will be, what to do to prevent these things, or even how to profit financially from these things(hence why you were chased from BFI by pretty intelligent regulars).

So wtf are you doing Jiggs?

Actually, that appears to be a problem for YOU. Not me. As I told JJ, I don't need to tell you exactly when or how bad it will be. I also don't need to make you drink if I lead you to water.

It's a slowly worsening condition that has already begun.

And I absolutely don't need to help you profit off of it. That arrogant expectation is a huge part of the overall problem. To be fair, I've sprinkled a half dozen or so companies some might invest in during my time here. Even pointed people in the direction of the Energy & Capital daily newsletter. So **** you.

LOL... cool story, but that never happened. No one chased me from anywhere. I went in, challenged the pervasive false-assumptions, received the expected wrath-addled reaction, while enjoying the fact that my fundamental presmise went unchallenged. I'd call it a successful experiment. I'll go back there whenever I feel like it, likely when I notice another new thread assuming infinite growth to be a given.

Satisfyingly forcing people like you to come face to face with your overwhelming cognitive dissonance. Noticing that you, perhaps instinctually, don't dare challenge the assertion that global net energy is dropping rapidly, and can no longer support the levels of growth that modern industrial societies have become used to.

So yeah Jiggs, still zero evidence presented that peak oil caused the housing bubble and crash.

actually, I presented direct evidence... economists who testify to exactly that cause.

your retort? "ok, but something would have eventually caused it!!!"

so, you kinda conceded... but on further reflection a few days later when you didn't achieve maximum tortured logic needed to maintain your denial? ... you shift back to "still zero evidence." OK guy.

I'm grateful that you could put aside the dishonest douchebaggery act for a few hours and have at least a bit of honest back and forth, though. That's extremely rare from you.