@adios

I think (and I'm just speculating here) that the timing of these turf wars is probably cyclical and based on all sorts of different variables. In a nutshell I think that whatever conditions are necessary to facilitate drug turf wars happened to be lined up in such a way that Chicago was fertile ground for a power struggle in 2016. Perhaps it is simply that the food chain was shaken up to the extent where lots of small groups/factions are battling for control until a new order is hashed out, and then things settle down.

Hard to say why specifically Chicago had such a rough year of it, but generally speaking I think this is why we see so much concentrated violence in big cities in the US. Not simply because of race, poor police relations, poverty, poor education, guns, etc, but because the controlling the urban drug markets (or even just a tiny piece) is the primary goal of the aspiring urban criminal. That is where the most $ is to be made the quickest, from the kingpin all the way down to the kid on the corner.

Unfortunately, it seems that eliminating the competition (and anyone else nearby) via homicide is one of the more popular methods to get ahead in the criminal world, but that doesn't seem to be anything new. Again, look back to prohibition and look where the violence was concentrated in those days: large cities, mostly on water (where booze could be easily imported) like NYC, Chicago, Atlantic City, etc.

This is trivially easy to understand. Cops feel as if public sentiment has turned against them and that they are targets. Firstly, we know that police commissioners must have the confidence of their men. If the police don't think that their safety is the top priority that commissioner won't last.

https://thinkprogress.org/baltimore-...e14#.87dcasbtq

The announcement came on the heels of a police union report claiming their leadership had forced a “passive response” to protests over Freddie Gray’s death in police custody. The union squarely placed blame on Batts for leaving “officers in harm’s way, making them vulnerable and susceptible to attack” and causing “full-scale rioting.”

Since the protests over Gray’s death, Baltimore police have claimed that they do not feel comfortable doing their jobs and point to a recent spike in crime as evidence that a “softer, less aggressive police department” does not allow for effective policing. Other experts say abrupt fluctuations in crime tend to respond more to local circumstances like gang activity and other factors.

Police unions under scrutiny for brutal and abusive practices have historically turned on their more politically minded leaders. After Eric Garner’s death by police chokehold and the ensuing protests, New York police officers ceremonially turned their backs on Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) at a murdered officer’s funeral.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/us...ayor.html?_r=0

“I got my guys hurt, and I got to own that, and I stand tall behind that,” Mr. Batts told the union members. “That won’t happen again in this organization.”

It's obvious that commissioners that don't side with their officers face serious problems. The officers will do what is best to ensure their own safety :

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-...831-story.html


The scrutiny, some say, is coming in many forms. The U.S. Justice Department is overseeing the operations of several major police departments across the country; police are being sued, investigated, arrested and indicted; a routine traffic stop may be recorded by dashboard video, body camera or a nearby cellphone; an officer in full uniform can get shot while filling up his vehicle at a gas station. None of these are new, but their frequency and the ongoing national debate over policing have crystallized into a sense of being under siege on all fronts, officers said.

This has also changed their approach :

http://www.khou.com/news/local/houst...ures/276315612

After the Dallas shootings, where five officers were killed, most Houston police officers requested to work in two-man units. Hunt says no requests have been turned down; some stations have even made it mandatory.

"Four hands are better than two hands, four eyes are better than two and two brains are better than one," said Hunt. "It's just common sense."

Of course the behavior of the cops will change:

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/lo...396211791.html

When they call for a sixth and final time, the dispatcher tells the firefighters that police are refusing to come.
"Per supervisor, they said officials advise they’re not coming back to that location," the dispatcher said.

I'm having trouble locating the articles about police commanders changing their tactics, but remember reading quite a few about it.


We don't agree on what is "effective" policing. Cops need things like intimidation in order to do their jobs in some cases. I doubt you'll agree with that, and those sentiments have been heard. They are well aware of the scrutiny they are and have adjusted their tactics accordingly. Therefore, we have a rise in the murder rate. It's not a coincidence.

I think the police should be even more forceful in crime-ridden areas to curb violence. That simply isn't going to happen in the current state, so we will see more people dying. You're OK with that, I'm not. Your side is winning, and the price you pay for that is the body count.

Lol, this is hilarious. While you very likely to survive walking down "those streets" at night, doing it isn't recommended. High crime areas are called high crime areas for a reason. You can simply go on YouTube and type in "detroit streets at night" or "chicago streets at night" and see how bad some of those areas actually are. You're out of your mind if you think it's cool to pull up in those areas and hop out of the car and get some chicken.

I mean, this clip shows just a few of the bad areas in Philly. You're really walking down these streets? Even in broad daylight? Lol. Listen to the woman speak at the 4:00 mark when Anderson asks him if she interacted with the dealers in person.




And of course, the Louis Theroux documentary. You walking by these dudes? Hah, yeah, alright.

Maybe the cops should stop murdering people if they care so much about what people think of them.

You got what you wanted, a more passive police force. Now watch the bodies pile up and enjoy your victory. How's it feel?

Wil, I think you're overestimating the ability the police force has to actively PREVENT a murder by intervening. I seriously doubt many of those 762 murders were scenarios where there was a cop nearby that could have stopped it whether he wanted to or not.

What % of the murders do you think could have possibly been prevented by the police intervening? (If it wasn't for the Ferguson effect..) More than 10-25%? I'm thinking that number has got to be less than 5%

I'll assume this is a troll, but I've heard it said often enough sincerely. I've also often heard the same thing said by redneck racists about black folk.

Wil,

If I show you two YouTubes of car crashes will you stop driving?

Of course not, but I'd be more careful after I do.

BTW, this is a terrible example.

Probably more than you'd think. I don't think its a coincidence that the police have changed tactics and that violent crime as increased. It'll take a while to look through all the data but the Ferguson effect seems to be real. Yes, I know we can argue whether it is or not, but I can't see how these two just happened to change at the same time.

You could stop murders in those neighborhoods right away, tonight, if you wanted to. We all know that. It just depends on how far people are willing to go. As I've said, the liberal side has won, so the bodies will continue to pile up.

I'd be willing to wager that if nothing drastic happens in police tactics in 2017 the murder rate will go higher. Would anyone be willing to put some money on it?

Trust me, it's quite relevant. That you thoughtlessly drive and are terrified to walk down a street in a black neighborhood is you being irrational.

wil, what do you think professional sports teams should do to stop gang violence?

Mr. Muckit's posts are quite accurate.

In case you were curious about why your notions were not among the 1st few replies, part of the FFKA Unchained culture was to let wil et al just spew and spew before cutting to the heart of the issue.

Lol, I live in a black neighborhood. Wtf are you even talking about? I probably live in a neighborhood that is way worse than what you are describing when you are talking about "BBQ in the hood". I know bad neighborhoods, hell, I ain't even white, and I know better than to drive through some areas at night much less walk through them, you must be out your goddamn mind. You don't know what you are talking about. Zip. Zero.

There are streets where if you walk up them you will 100% be confronted. They will ask who you are and what you are doing there, and if your story don't check out you got a ****ing problem. When people tell you in all seriousness "don't come around here looking for me without calling first" they aren't ****ing joking with you.

This is 2+2 and not the real world so I understand this type of idiocy, but you do people a disservice by saying things like this.

This is literally about the internal politics of one police force. What does that to have to do with murders in Chicago?

OK I left the quote in here because lol the media writing this **** up. WHAT THE **** IS WRONG WITH THE BOLDED? Is the argument here(yes, incredibly, after getting back from lunch and collecting all his links wil never did spit out a point) that police officers need absolute immunity from the law AND absolute immunity from being observed before they'll deign to do their ****ing jobs?

But also, what does that to have to do with murders in Chicago?

What does that to have to do with murders in Chicago?


So there are more murders in Chicago because... police in Houston are doing more two-man cars? TBH that literally does sound like a coincidence, there's no causal relationship between that.

Ok, so one thing, this is a terrifically dishonest false dichotomy. I reject your premise, man, you haven't even advanced a theory yet.

For another, even if it was true, where's that small government "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." and all that, right?

Third and finally, what the **** do you mean "more forceful"? That murders are caused by insufficient brutalization of non-murderers seems pretty ****ing tenuous, but do you have some specific level of forcefulness in mind?

Let them play hockey. Ldo

Post #153 is so beyond incredible.

By "looking through the data" you literally mean you saw a headline about murders in Chicago and then cross-referenced that with if you had recently gotten furiously mad at liberals for complaining about racism online, right?

But like, only in Chicago, right? And only very specifically shootings, for some reason other crime hasn't seen the same spike.

You see how the "gang war" theory fits the facts a little better?

Also,

There are literally murders in prison, where people are under 24/7 supervision, what the **** are you even talking about?

Also you see kioshk and wil's reaction to microbet's anecdote? LOL "who are you going to believe, Fox News or your own lying life?"

Fly, it doesn't take much to understand that police have changed the way they do things due to recent events. They are concerned about their own safety and are aware of increased scrutiny and how their actions will be perceived. While that will get you a much nicer, hands off approach to policing it will also get you a higher body count. Now, I know your argument is like Duh, we can't be sure of the reasons these things happened it's probably just a coincidence, but that doesn't do anything for the people who have to live in those conditions.

Hey man, maybe you're right and I'm wrong. 762 was the number of deaths in 2016. 2017 starting off with a bang (no pun intended). Would you like to bet on it, Barring any significant change in leadership / outside intervention?

I don't know the streets of Chicago, but if they are like Philadelphia then I'd bet quite a bit of money he's wrong. Happens all the time.

What are we betting on, specifically? Because no offense I kinda see this as being a free-roll for you, if whatever stat we bet on(still just murders in Chicago? I'm entirely lost as to why the rest of the country and other crimes don't matter here) goes up you'll say you win, if it goes down you'll say tactics changed.

YEAH! More Wil anecdotes! Woo Woo!

No I won't. Let's have some fun with it, we will go month by month until either the end of 2017 or if there is any change in the police commissioner or federal intervention by the Trump administration. I think there's no chance we go through all of 2017 without Trump stepping in.

Let's bet 100 bucks per month, every month, that murders outpace each corresponding month in 2016. I'm not trying to do it to actually beat you for money, just to prove a point. We can bet 10 or 20 or 50 per month, and if federal intervention happens or the police commissioner changes the bet ends immediately in the month the change happens.

Let me know. It'll be fun.