In your defense micro, they probably thought you were a cop

I'd choose the one that doesn't result in the murder of innocent people. Innocent black kids getting gunned down because a cop is afraid isn't honorable or acceptable. Yes, all of the black people gunned down are innocent, or are black people not innocent until proven guilty?

It's just not that dangerous. Other things I do are way more. If women, old people, little children can walk around somewhere, so can I, and people don't just rush you because you're white.

Bbq in the hood is on me if you're ever in LA. Or Chicken and Waffles if you prefer.

... Lol this forum is incredible

My bad. Ok, so you believe the cause of Chicago's high murder rate is BLM.

Alright, now take a shot at this:
*Fire away dude, I'll try to avoid acting childish. Scout's honour.

FWIW, if there were a negative correlation than you would expect to see crime decreasing with prison pop increasing and crime increasing with prison pop decreasing, so I don't think your example is so good. It's the periods from mid 80s to mid 90s and after 2000 where they appear to move independently, and only the mid-90s where the correlation is strongly significant. That's more or less what the statistical analyses show. I'm fairly sure I've seen analyses that go back further in time as well but I can't find them at the moment.

I'm taking you up on this if I go to Cali again. There's a few of you California politards I'd like to have beers with actually.

CC roulette bro. I'm not buying dinner for everyone on 2p2.

the graph is pretty easily explained IMO. the dramatic liberalization (in the non-political use of the word) and gradual breakdown of family structure coincides the increase in crime from 1960-1980. obviously the introduction and growth of street gangs massively impacts the number as well (which of course were formed largely as a result of the huge migration of african-americans from the south to the north and west and the subsequent racism/segregation/poverty they faced)

but yeah... then there's a crackdown on crime and the prison population increases. We see less crime. sure there's a bunch of factors. I'm sure the gradual increase in availability of information + increase in intelligence has downward pressures on crime. But to deny the correlation here is something else

"i don't think your example is so good" would be the charitable way to phrase it

Correlation has a statistical definition, and it's not "squint at the graph". I don't think anyone has denied that there is a correlation, especially over specific periods of time, but research that investigates the strength and the significance of it has been posted.

well, considering I was quoting a post that denied a correlation (you also quoted the post), I think we can safely say that someone denied there's a correlation

I thought the word "clear" was doing some work in his post (referring to significance), even though his example was wrong. Maybe I was over-interpreting.

So your counterpoint is to immediately assume that factors other than incarceration drove the increase in crime?

My brother's out there, Van Nuys, stranger things have happened.

Touche.

Seems to me these kind of stats have very little to do with BLM, or unjustified police killings, or Trump, or Hillary, or gun control. Those issues are all related to the root of the cycle of violence, but they are all secondary. (or tertiary)

What it boils down to is: the war on drugs. Since the illegal drug market is insanely lucrative (enormous profit margins) and has an insatiable demand (much of the clientele becomes addicted), various groups will battle viciously for control of the black market until it becomes legal (and therefore less lucrative). The present day death toll during these turf wars between rival gangs and is fundamentally not much different from the violence in Chicago during the Al Capone era of alcohol prohibition, except it is now on a larger scale, with a larger population and more money at stake.

I would be willing to bet that the violence taking place in 2016 around the alcohol market in Chicago was practically 0. Why? Because legal brewers, distillers, bartenders, distributors, restaurant owners, etc don't typically have to resort to violence as a way to maintain a competitive advantage in the alcohol market. They can compete for market share in a fair way within a set of acceptable rules, in a free market. The fact that a legal market has a more modest/realistic profit margins than the black market, tends to not attract the criminal element of those looking to unscrupulously make a quick buck by any means necessary. (ie murdering the competition)

But yeah, lets keep blaming the cycle of senseless violence in this country on the Ferguson effect, and people not having enough respect for the police, and guns 'going off' because there's just too darn many of them, and too many guns that were potentially bought at an out-of-state gun show, and republicans, and liberals, and the skin color of the shooter and the race of the victim, and the skin color of the police. Yep. That should fix the problem.

Add to that a for-profit prison industry (seriously WTF) with a strong lobbying presence

and finally someone else has made the correlation to the mafia.

sir i am not afraid to walk down certain streets at night. i just refrain from it due to the violent things that happen onthose streets at night. i once again name a specific street and say come on down and take a walk down blue hills ave, in bloomfield ct at 2am sometime. then you will be able to judge for yourself if us conservaives are too irrational. once again this has been brought to you by HIM

@Mr. Muckit - if it is the drug war that is causing a problem, why do you think Chicago is disproportionately affected? I have no idea why Chicago is so high in the number of homicides other than it is a tough town. So this is isn't a trap on my part. But if it is the drug war as the main cause, then it sure seems like Chicago is disproportionately affected.

During prohibition my understanding is that mass murders in Chicagoland were very high. It was a pretty bad scene.

Nighttime probably a lot more risky. Back in the day I worked in some really awful neighborhoods in the city of Cleveland. Hung out some after work too in those neiborhoods. I side stepped a few potentially troublesome incidents but nothing really bad ever happened to me either.

Maybe the mafia still lives in Chicago. I hear they sell drugs. Turf wars probably a big part of the current violence spike. This isn't to discount the Ferguson effect. Both causes seem to go fit together pretty well. And don't forget about the goat!

It's been pointed out already, but here's my top 3 reasons this happened.

1. War on drugs (duh). This is is like 99% of the bulk of the problem.

2. Welfare state. Welfare has done more harm to black people than any racist white cops can dream of. Perpetuates poverty and social degradation in the black community.

3. Gangsta thug culture which has permeated black culture, transmitted by poor whites in the antebellum south.