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Old 02-28-2017, 02:03 PM   #151
Carl Trooper
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Sounds like a good time to celebrate w a milly GTD!
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Old 02-28-2017, 02:10 PM   #152
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Beware the Ides of March
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Old 02-28-2017, 09:38 PM   #153
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
Assuming that the prize pool selection process is as I've described above, the biggest ones will hit with the following probabilities:

10% of the JP ('mini') - once in ~3467 games;
20% of the JP ('midi') - exactly 12 times less often, once in ~15602 games;
75% of the JP ('maxi') - exactly 54 times less often than the 'mini', once in ~187218 games.

So most (63%) of the money won from the united JP will be won from the 'mini' chunks, 28% - from the 'midi' and only 9% - from the 'maxi'. This is surely good for the 'grindability' of the games (i.e. the risk of ruin of a winning player is small enough). Also, it means that the size of the total JP will be fluctuating smoothly enough, as it will seldom experience big shocks (be reduced by 4 times) and, most of the time, it will only be suffering from small 10-20% 'bites'.

The average JP size will be ~21897 times the total contribution per game. E.g. if, in each $10 game, $5 is put into the JP (so the JP contribution per player is $5/9 ~ $0.56, or ~5.56% of the BI), then the JP will be ~$109.5K on average.

Anyone who's interested in the details of how the math is done may ask me convincingly so that I put the details into a thread in the Probability forum.

Speaking of, I was wrong above - the probability of the minimum prize pool is exactly 50%. Indeed, if we ignore the gold cards altogether, the smallest pool hits if and only if the first non-gold card is red, and there are 26 such cards out of 52 non-gold.

Assuming the paytable of non-JP tiers I've given above, the sum of the rake and the JP contribution will be ~14.5% of the BI, thus the rake itself will be 9% (a quarter of that will be feeding Sit and Crush as usual, while 6.75% of the BI will be earning loyalty points). It's a realistically pessimistic scenario - that's how iPoker's 6-man JP SnGs are raked.

Once again, that's all pure speculation based on the promo video.
After reading this, my first reaction is that fish and rec players are going to get absolutely smashed by these games.

You analyze tournaments. So do I. So do a lot of good players. I have a list of favorite tournaments on my computer where I describe each tournament. Some of the features of the tournaments are in bold red (things that I don't like so much, like turbos, or buy-ins higher than I usually play. Bold black is things that I like about the tournament, like long periods of late registration (lots of small stacks to push around and pick off) or a lot of starting chips.

Fish and recs don't think like you and I do. They don't analyze tournaments. Those of us who can do tournament analysis might love these complicated formats, but wiping out a recreational player's bankroll too quickly is bad for the poker economy. It's a tough line to walk.
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:21 PM   #154
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by lotuspod2 View Post
Hopefully o8 gets included this time, jackpots were a disappointment for me and some others. Only thing jackpots did for us was drag many of the recs away from our games which keeps o8 sng traffic down artificially.

9-mans sound cool, but not so sure about hypers though. I think a fair compromise would be 1500-chip turbos with a few blind levels removed, mainly some of the early ones. This would speed up the games but would still leave plenty of time for the most important stages of the game.
This is a very important point. When I played on PokerStars (back when Americans could do that) they accepted a lot of input. They even had a Players Committee. They added all kinds and types of SNGs. Regular speed, turbo and hypers. Buy-in levels at 10¢, $1, $3, $5, $10, $20, up to $100 and beyond. SNGs from 6-max, to 9, 18, 27, 36, 45, 90, 180 and 360 players. Double or nothings, later replaced by 50/50s.

Despite the huge player pool, SNGs became so divided that players who were grinding traditional SNGs were having trouble filling a table quickly. If that can happen to a large international playing pool, it can certainly happen on any site currently available to US players.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." -- George Santayana
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Old 03-06-2017, 08:45 PM   #155
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Only 9 days left I am so excited! Seems like things are really ramping up and WPN is going to make the launch a really big production judging by the amount of promoting going on!
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:51 PM   #156
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by chopsy2 View Post
Only 9 days left I am so excited! Seems like things are really ramping up and WPN is going to make the launch a really big production judging by the amount of promoting going on!
I'm sure it's coming. There's no reason to believe that ACR won't deliver on their expected timeline.
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Old 03-06-2017, 11:28 PM   #157
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

How bad will the rake be? I know I'm being pessimistic from the start.
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Old 03-07-2017, 02:07 PM   #158
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

I went to go purchase Collin Moshmans book online about sng 2.0 because I can't wait to play these games and can't seem to find it. Has anyone seen it for sale?
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Old 03-07-2017, 08:57 PM   #159
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
I'm sure it's coming. There's no reason to believe that ACR won't deliver on their expected timeline.
Ok, but will any of the tournaments freeze or crash? That's what really matters.
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Old 03-08-2017, 07:56 PM   #160
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
There's no reason to believe that ACR won't deliver on their expected timeline.
LOL
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Old 03-08-2017, 08:00 PM   #161
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

hey Winning_TD can we get a confirmation it's on schedule?
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Old 03-08-2017, 09:30 PM   #162
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

I am super excited for these games! Seems oddly quiet on all fronts though. No really noise coming from WPN or Colin Moshman about these games. In fact, other than when these debuted in the live version at Puna Canta I don't recall hearing anything about them other than the delays. I makes me wonder if possibly there is some dispute between the two parties.
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Old 03-08-2017, 11:30 PM   #163
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Im guessing they dont check this thread much, or thats me just being naive and optimistic lol
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Old 03-08-2017, 11:37 PM   #164
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by istack_u5 View Post
Im guessing they dont check this thread much, or thats me just being naive and optimistic lol
they check/respond to what they want to
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Old 03-09-2017, 05:12 PM   #165
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

It's on schedule. Downtime will be on Wed. the 15th at 8:00 am ET.
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Old 03-09-2017, 11:42 PM   #166
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Awesome, can't wait!
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Old 03-11-2017, 10:58 PM   #167
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

so what stakes are these going to run at?
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Old 03-12-2017, 01:07 PM   #168
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

$5 + $0.50
$10 + $1
$25 + $2.50
$50 + $5
$100 + $9
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Old 03-12-2017, 02:56 PM   #169
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Any word on blind structure and level times?
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Old 03-12-2017, 03:55 PM   #170
xnbomb
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Quote:
Originally Posted by WPN Rep View Post
$5 + $0.50
$10 + $1
$25 + $2.50
$50 + $5
$100 + $9
That rake is a joke, right?
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:35 AM   #171
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

If these are regspeed they'll never run because they're regspeeds. If these are hypers, they'll never run because they're unbeatable.

Need more information, though. Curious to see what happens in a couple days.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:48 AM   #172
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

That's the same rake that shows on a non turbo sngs and just slightly higher than their turbo sng rake. The big question is that rake + rake race fees included or does it not include rake race fees.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:47 AM   #173
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Yeah, that's why I said they're unbeatable if they're hypers. If they're regspeed they should still be beatable I would guess, but I wonder if they'll actually fire much. If they are a hyper structure though, it would prob cannibalize spin traffic, so that wouldn't make too much sense.

All the other buyins on the site have snc built into the rake, right? Don't see why these would be different.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:24 AM   #174
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Would love to see a slightly more aggressive turbo structure (something like below).
  • 1000-chip start stack
  • 5-minute levels
  • big blind: 20, 30, 50, 80, 120, 170, 230, 300, ...
  • 10% ante from level 1
  • 5% rake
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:40 AM   #175
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut View Post
Would love to see a slightly more aggressive turbo structure (something like below).
  • 1000-chip start stack
  • 5-minute levels
  • big blind: 20, 30, 50, 80, 120, 170, 230, 300, ...
  • 10% ante from level 1
  • 5% rake
I dislike all of this except antes from start and well 5% rake . Pretty sure we'll see a normal turbo structure which will be a compromise based off of what sngs currently get traffic.
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