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Old 09-06-2016, 07:22 PM   #26
chopsy2
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Can anyone with some insight into these games say wether these games appear to be more/ less beatable than the jp without hitting a big multiplier. Also, just an idea here but would it make sense for each multiplier also payout one more spot than the next?
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Old 09-06-2016, 09:01 PM   #27
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by chopsy2 View Post
Can anyone with some insight into these games say wether these games appear to be more/ less beatable than the jp without hitting a big multiplier.
I think that a grinder of 3-max jackpots will be less dependent on the top 3 multipliers (than a 9-max grinder on payouts from the prog. JP), as the top 3 payout tiers of Jackpot Poker are 'fed' by merely 1.5% of the buy-in. (Replace the 100-2500 multipliers by 0 in SwongSim and you'll see that the 'rake' will jump from 6% to 7.5%.)

As I pessimistically guesstimated above, there will be 9% rake plus the 5.6% jackpot fee in 9-max adding up to 14.6% (I'd like to turn out wrong, but this follows the logic similar to the one why 3-max JP Poker has twice the rake of HU hypers [and even 2.5 times bigger if we exclude the top 3 multipliers], namely, tons of money will be spent on marketing and there will hopefully be more recreationals per game and more traffic, which will warrant the higher rake). Thus, in order to break even without the help of the progressive JP, one will need to have an edge over the field equivalent to an 11% ROI in a non-JP 9-max hyper.

However, as I said, SNG 2.0 is supposed to have more recs per tourney than a usual 9m hyper, attracted by a larger JP than in 3-man JP Poker*, so that edge might be attainable. For comparison, the ROW 888 poker network has 4-man hyper JP SNGs that are guaranteed to end within 6 minutes except 10x+ multipliers (after that point, the server puts all the players all-in automatically), have 7% rake at the $15 level, but if you had a chance to witness the skill of their players, you wouldn't doubt that the 7% rake is beatable. Well, ACR of course has a tougher field, but otoh, 9-mans last longer and allow for bigger edges and Sit & Crush really helps.

Moreover, as I guesstimated, the 'mini' JPs (10% of the grand JP) will be hit once in 3467 games, which is not that rare in a grinder's career. The 'mini' JPs will add 'bout tree fiddy (no kidding) percent points to the ROI.

Plus of course, $10 grinders will be scoring decently in the Sit & Crush race. With VIP rewards and bonuses, this will add 5-7 more percent points to the ROI.

Assuming that Sit & Crush + VIP + reloads return 6% of the total buy-in, in order to break even with 'mini' JPs included, one will need to have an edge over the field corresponding to being breakeven pre-rakeback in non-JP 9m hypers, which is of course doable.

Overall, I think $10 SNG 2.0 will be beatable by a grinder by at least a few % ROI incl. rake-based rewards. Considering that it will hopefully be possible to put in mass volume there (more than in the current SNG lobby), I think a $50 hourly profit will be doable.

* ACR might have made the JP of its 3-max hypers progressive too, but they'd have to make the contribution rate into it much smaller, not more than 3% of each buy-in, in order for the games to remain 'beatable', and then the JP wouldn't grow as fast as they'd like to. The 9-man structure seems to allow for faster growth of the prog. JP.

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Originally Posted by chopsy2 View Post
Also, just an idea here but would it make sense for each multiplier also payout one more spot than the next?
In the video, only the 2nd, 5th, 8th and 9th non-JP multipliers are shown, i.e. the ones corresponding to 1, 4, 7 and 8 green cards opened. I think all the other (intermediate) multipliers appeared in fact during the prize pool selection process, but those moments were cut out of the video to fit it into the 30-second limit.

As per the table I posted above, the 2nd multiplier pays 3 places, 5th - 6 places, 8th - 9 places, as seen in the video. So I conjectured that indeed, each multiplier until the 8th does pay one more spot than the next. But maybe there's a jump from the 4th paying 3 to the 5th paying 6, so that there are fewer prize distributions to memorize. We can't know that for sure until the game goes live.

Last edited by coon74; 09-06-2016 at 09:30 PM.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:05 PM   #28
zoogenhiem
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

These sound really fun, coming from a winning player who is currently a rec. Never been much of a fan of hyper 9max, seems like they'd run more with 6max and be more fun. I do like that this will increase SNG traffic. Also seems kinda similar to the new 4max timed games on 888. I wonder if there will be deal making capabilities at any stage in the high multiplier games like there are in the spinners.

Still, I gotta ask, so this is what ACR was working on instead of fixing the many bugs still in the Mac client, the quantity of which keep me from grinding HSMTTs on a regular base?
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:25 PM   #29
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by coon74 View Post

Overall, I think $10 SNG 2.0 will be beatable by a grinder by at least a few % ROI incl. rake-based rewards. Considering that it will hopefully be possible to put in mass volume there (more than in the current SNG lobby), I think a $50 hourly profit will be doable.
Interesting speculative analysis done thus far in thread. However, think these two ideas are mutually exclusive. Let's say that after all rewards these games (at $10 bi) are beatable for 5% -- 50c/game, which seems reasonable all things considered. You'd need over 1.5 games/minute to pop for a $50 hourly, and even with that traffic you'd need the ability to handle 8 or 10 tables at a time while maintaining this roi, keeping track of icm, various payouts, and gamestates while you do. I think this would be an extremely hard ask. Average gametime will be long enough that just maintaining 4 or 5 tables shouldn't be enough to hit the gamecount required to come close to a $50 hourly.

Haven't done a bunch of math to back this up, but I'd guess that a realistic hourly is closer to half of your initial suggestion (~$25/hr), if that.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:27 PM   #30
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by zoogenhiem View Post
I wonder if there will be deal making capabilities at any stage in the high multiplier games like there are in the spinners.
You can see the prize structures in high multipliers if you take a closer look at the video on the promo page linked by Max Cut. All the 9 players are paid in this case, and the payout structure is so flat already (the winner gets only 25% of the prize pool) that there's no need in a pre-game deal like there is in 3-man jackpots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoogenhiem View Post
Also seems kinda similar to the new 4max timed games on 888.
Exactly. The games on 888 are a good example of how it's possible to make the table size as small as 4-man but still enable a prize pool split in almost half of the games (making bad players' overall ITMs ~35%, good players' ~40%) while still keeping the game fun (unlike the 50%/50% prize pool split between top-2 finishers used in the first version of WSOP jackpots*) and making all the payouts >=1.5 BIs, which feels somewhat more rewarding than mini-cashes like 1.2 BIs awarded to bottom places in high multipliers of SNG 2.0 - if a player makes two 1.5 BI cashes, he then has an extra whole BI available.

Here's my copy of the rules of those games from 888's website, for those US readers who'd like to know what on earth I and zoogenhiem are talking about.

* Speaking of, I've checked the prize structure of the SNG 2.0 14x multiplier** (the one that pays to the top 6 in the video) with an ICM calculator. If the stacks are equal on the bubble, then it's going to be an even bigger snoozefest than those 2015 WSOP JPs. One will need a 70% equity in order to play for the whole stacks profitably, will need to wait for a starting hand like JJ or better, until the blinds grow to the extreme.

**
PlacePrize
145
228
324
420
514
610

(The numbers shown in the video add up to $141 instead of $140, so the exact payouts in fact contain fractional dollars and are mostly rounded up in the visual presentation.)

Last edited by coon74; 09-06-2016 at 11:54 PM.
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Old 09-07-2016, 12:01 AM   #31
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by Duncelanas View Post
Interesting speculative analysis done thus far in thread. However, think these two ideas are mutually exclusive. Let's say that after all rewards these games (at $10 bi) are beatable for 5% -- 50c/game, which seems reasonable all things considered. You'd need over 1.5 games/minute to pop for a $50 hourly, and even with that traffic you'd need the ability to handle 8 or 10 tables at a time while maintaining this roi, keeping track of icm, various payouts, and gamestates while you do. I think this would be an extremely hard ask. Average gametime will be long enough that just maintaining 4 or 5 tables shouldn't be enough to hit the gamecount required to come close to a $50 hourly.

Haven't done a bunch of math to back this up, but I'd guess that a realistic hourly is closer to half of your initial suggestion (~$25/hr), if that.
Yes, I'm too optimistic, initially wanted to talk about $30/hr but felt that it wouldn't be inspiring enough

I think I can, if necessary, train myself to play 10 tables of this stuff at a time on autopilot, though The main problem is that I won't be able to get that many games running.
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Old 09-07-2016, 11:01 AM   #32
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Having 10 games at once seems like a stretch. Sometimes even at pretty peak times, it's hard to get 4 $10 spinners to go off on ACR.
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Old 09-07-2016, 11:49 AM   #33
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

The thing is that JPP has some proprietary seating algorithm which is not 'first come, first sat'. I.e. it prevents one from being sat in a significant percentage of the games that are about to start. Hopefully, the seating algorithm for SNG 2.0 is 'first come, first served' (bar pairs of players who're 'associated' and disallowed to be sat together in SNGs and cash games, like the family of Collin and Katie) to stimulate the traffic, which is not that bad because repetitiveness of opponent lineups is a usual thing in 9-mans anyway.
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Old 09-07-2016, 01:23 PM   #34
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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Originally Posted by zoogenhiem View Post
Having 10 games at once seems like a stretch. Sometimes even at pretty peak times, it's hard to get 4 $10 spinners to go off on ACR.
No its not?
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Old 09-07-2016, 01:41 PM   #35
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

With varying payout structures would this not be an ICM nightmare?
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Old 09-07-2016, 02:24 PM   #36
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

I think the color of the tables will be different for different multipliers like in JPP, so this won't be a nightmare. Being comfortable with a mix of SNGs with different payout structures is a matter of habit, as long as you're experienced in all these structures, which is not necessarily true for new US regs who have never had a chance to grind a mix of 18, 27, 45 and 180-man MTSNGs all at once.

Collin and especially Katie were doing this on a regular basis when they lived in Mexico, so it's logical that they're OK with such a mosaic.
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Old 09-07-2016, 03:03 PM   #37
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

I'm not a nit! I'm making ICM folds to ladder up in an STT.

beamingpride.jpg


OD players face some of this since payouts can vary with the number of entries. They're mostly nits tho. #shots
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Old 09-07-2016, 03:45 PM   #38
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

But how many $5+ OD tables is it possible to get going at once? Do OD grinders really have enough experience?
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Old 09-07-2016, 03:51 PM   #39
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Is this going to be NLH only? I would love to see PLO or especially PLO8
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Old 09-07-2016, 03:56 PM   #40
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

$2 non-NLH SNG 2.0 are possible but there's no way they can run smoothly at the $10 level. There would be way too few volunteers to start them.
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:10 PM   #41
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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But how many $5+ OD tables is it possible to get going at once? Do OD grinders really have enough experience?
I'm not up on OD traffic and players at the moment. There's still a lot unknown about the SNG2 format, but I can see it possibly being a natural compliment to OD grinding, especially if they come out as turbo.
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Old 09-07-2016, 05:15 PM   #42
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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I originally suggested this format to WPN and I know when I chatted with them we talked about making the bottom prize in such a format $70 (given a $10 buyin). That way the bottom prize could be a pay 2 could be something like $44 1st $26 2nd which is very similar to how the pay 3s currently are $45 1st, $27 2nd. Whether the final version is like that I do not know but maybe that'll give you more to think about c00n (2+2 wants to censor your name).
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Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
I'd love it to be $70, but if the procedure of prize selection is like I've outlined, the probabilities of prize tiers decline roughly like in a geometric progression with a factor of 2, i.e. a 50% chance of 0 green cards, 25% of 1, 13% of 2, and so on. (I'll figure out the exact probabilities later.) If there's a $70 prize pool half the time and a pool of at least $90 the other half, that's already at least $80 on average, the sum of collected BIs is $90, and there's not much room for both the rake (plus the JP contribution) and the surplus money awarded by higher non-JP multipliers.
Both can be correct by doing the rake accounting similar to regular SNGs ($buyin + $fee) and then just applying the prizepool multipliers to the buyin portion. This would facilitate a 7x bottom tier under the numbers seen in the video clip. (The multiplier when considered in Jackpot Poker terms would be something between 6x and 7x, depending on the fee amount.)
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Old 09-07-2016, 05:19 PM   #43
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

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No its not?
I mean, I guess I was exaggerating a bit, but it's not unusual for me to wait a minute or more to get the third and fourth tables, but that could be explained by what people said above about the seating algorithm.

The important question for me is, will these games be on Mac?
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Old 09-11-2016, 07:32 PM   #44
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

JPT1 is getting gang-multied by JPT2 and JPT3!?

obv JPT2 and JPT3 are shills with inside info on progressive spawns
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Old 09-12-2016, 01:07 PM   #45
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Any chance these will run enough to go after SnC leaderboard/general+? Assuming about 250 hours a month in play probably $10-$25ABI if they run
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Old 09-14-2016, 10:40 PM   #46
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

62.5 hours of poker a week eh? niiiiiiiiice

with that many hours and that abi, if u have any kind of mulitabling skills you should be competing for the $500 tier IMO, but I could be way off. all depends on the traffic I guess
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Old 09-17-2016, 11:15 PM   #47
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

when are these supposed to come out?
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Old 09-17-2016, 11:34 PM   #48
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Quote:
Coming October 2016
.
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Old 09-20-2016, 08:49 PM   #49
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

Looks like there is more info here:

http://www.puntacanapokerclassic.com/sit-n-go-2/
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Old 09-20-2016, 09:09 PM   #50
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Re: ACR new SNG 2.0

No, the live version of SnG 2.0 is a bit different. Namely, there are no 'gold cards' in the deck, and the top multiplier is merely 51.3 buy-ins, and the whole paytable is different - the low size of the top multiplier allows to make the lowest multiplier as big as 7x, especially because the paytable for a home game given as an example has zero rake. In the online version, there's a progressive jackpot fee along with the rake so I still don't believe it's possible to make the lowest prize pool 7 BIs.

One curious thing about that paytable, though, is that it confirms Thrash370's hint that the lowest multiplier games will pay for only 2 places.

Last edited by coon74; 09-20-2016 at 09:25 PM.
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