Quote:
Originally Posted by Rush17
He doesn't need to hit the nuts to continue. I was simply stating that it was possible to. I am never folding example1 after the first draw and that was OP question. What you catch after that, how many your opponent draws and how well he plays is all a part of it, not just what it says on paper.
No one said you have to hit gin, my point is you very rarely hit gin, so the vast majority of the time you are in a tough spot. Any 8 you make is easily dominated, and you are out of position, meaning it's almost impossible to get extra bets in with the best hand, and easy for your opponent to bet the best hand the whole way or check back worse to save a big bet.
For example, on your first draw to 754, roughly 45% of the time you don't improve. 10% of the time you "improve" to a 8754 draw. Another 20% of the time you improve to a 7543 draw. All of them tricky draws with gutters knocking out some of your outs.
So lets say the flop goes the most likely route, on second draw you take 2 and we know almost always the villain draws 1 or is pat. You improve to 7543, and to call another bet you are getting a 4.5-1 (requiring 18% equity). If villain was pat after first draw, 7543 over 1 draw is about 23% vs. a range of pat hands from rough Tens down to #4, none of which you are drawing dead to.
So while that call is nominally profitable, it's gets close to a fold vs. a competent opponent because they will be able to get an extra big bet from their best hands, while we can't. We can't bet/3b or check-raise river unless we make a wheel, if we lead 87543 and are raised we are mostly toast (but still have to call), if we check 87543 most worse hands check behind. And if we check call 97543 we may not be even 20% vs. villains last to act betting range (but still have to call).
So 20% of the time we improve to the 2nd best draw possible, and it's barely profitable.
More than half the time we either don't improve or improve to a gutshot (8754) to dominated hands. 8754 has the same problems as 7543, but to an even worse extent. Against any pat hand, that's a fold for me (we are roughly 18% against a pat range with 70% 9s and Ts). Against a competent opponent who drew 1 previously it's a marginal call. So if I'm folding the turn half the time, I need to average 1 big bet profit the rest of the time just to cover the cost of that one small bet on the flop. And that seems hard given our river calling/betting range is so many marginal and dominated hands.
