Question on 27TD hand reported from $50K FT: is this a good pat? - Draw Poker Forum

betgo · 06-28-2012, 08:07 PM

Shouldn't Israelashvili draw to the 8642 when 2 players draw 1?

Quote:

2-7 Triple Draw

From the cutoff Roland Israelashvili raised all in for just 111,000 and both Andy Bloch and Michael Mizrachi called from the blinds.

Bloch wanted two cards, Mizrachi three and Israelashvili took two. Bloch and Mizrachi opted to check.

On the second draw both blinds took two cards again, while Israelashvili only needed one. Again the action was checked.

On the final draw both blinds took one card and Israelashvili, who was at risk, stood pat. Again the action was checked.

Israelashvili turned over J8642 , but that was no good against Bloch's 87532. Israelashvili shook everyones hand and left the tournament area as we are now down to just four players! This fifth place finish marks Israelashvili biggest career cash

COCKBOAT · 06-28-2012, 10:11 PM

A few quick sims:

Code:

pokenum  -l27 2s 4s 6h 8h jh  - 2d 3d 5c 7c  - 3c 4c 7d 9d 
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 1482 enumerated outcomes
cards              win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 2s  Jh  8h  6h  488  32.93   994  67.07    0  0.00  0.329
7c 5c  3d  2d      589  39.74   893  60.26    0  0.00  0.397
4c 3c  9d  7d      405  27.33  1077  72.67    0  0.00  0.273


pokenum  -l27 2s 4s 6h 8h / jh  - 2d 3d 5c 7c  - 3c 4c 7d 9d 
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 54834 enumerated outcomes
cards            win   %win   lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 2s  8h  6h  17419  31.77  37415  68.23    0  0.00  0.318
7c 5c  3d  2d  22186  40.46  32648  59.54    0  0.00  0.405
4c 3c  9d  7d  15229  27.77  39605  72.23    0  0.00  0.278


pokenum  -l27 2s 4s 6h 8h jh / qh kh ah  - 2d 3d 5c 7c  - 3c 4c 7d 9d 
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 1260 enumerated outcomes
cards              win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 2s  Jh  8h  6h  365  28.97   895  71.03    0  0.00  0.290
7c 5c  3d  2d      535  42.46   725  57.54    0  0.00  0.425
4c 3c  9d  7d      360  28.57   900  71.43    0  0.00  0.286


pokenum  -l27 2s 4s 6h 8h / jh qh kh ah  - 2d 3d 5c 7c  - 3c 4c 7d 9d 
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 42840 enumerated outcomes
cards            win   %win   lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 2s  8h  6h  13595  31.73  29245  68.27    0  0.00  0.317
7c 5c  3d  2d  17534  40.93  25306  59.07    0  0.00  0.409
4c 3c  9d  7d  11711  27.34  31129  72.66    0  0.00  0.273


pokenum  -l27 2s 4s 6h 8h jh / 6s 6d 6c  - 2d 3d 5c 7c  - 3c 4c 7d 9d 
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 1260 enumerated outcomes
cards              win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 2s  Jh  8h  6h  488  38.73   772  61.27    0  0.00  0.387
7c 5c  3d  2d      451  35.79   809  64.21    0  0.00  0.358
4c 3c  9d  7d      321  25.48   939  74.52    0  0.00  0.255


pokenum  -l27 2s 4s 6h 8h / jh 6s 6d 6c  - 2d 3d 5c 7c  - 3c 4c 7d 9d 
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 42840 enumerated outcomes
cards            win   %win   lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 2s  8h  6h  16720  39.03  26120  60.97    0  0.00  0.390
7c 5c  3d  2d  15112  35.28  27728  64.72    0  0.00  0.353
4c 3c  9d  7d  11008  25.70  31832  74.30    0  0.00  0.257

Enjoy.

DeathDonkey · 06-29-2012, 01:18 AM

Ha I read that update a bit ago and it tilted me just reading it. I cannot think of any conditions in which he should pat in that spot, he simply doesn't have enough dead card info to make the equity calculation adjustments and it is highly unlikely he (or anyone really) would be able to do the math that quick anyway.

Very very likely what you saw is something that is super common with inexperienced lowball players, some incorrect magical notion that a "pat hand" is better than a "drawing hand", when they simply don't know the equities. I mean gosh what if he broke and then paired and an ace low won?!? Conveniently forgetting the times he makes an 86 and beats the 87 that busted him this hand.

Bjornar · 06-29-2012, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

Ha I read that update a bit ago and it tilted me just reading it. I cannot think of any conditions in which he should pat in that spot, he simply doesn't have enough dead card info to make the equity calculation adjustments and it is highly unlikely he (or anyone really) would be able to do the math that quick anyway.

Very very likely what you saw is something that is super common with inexperienced lowball players, some incorrect magical notion that a "pat hand" is better than a "drawing hand", when they simply don't know the equities. I mean gosh what if he broke and then paired and an ace low won?!? Conveniently forgetting the times he makes an 86 and beats the 87 that busted him this hand.

The example you bring up is perfect for lifetilt problems. But in an all in hand it really shouldnt be an issue. I think he messed up equities vs one player drawing rather then 2 or the most probable he has no clue?

SGspecial · 06-29-2012, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bjornar

The example you bring up is perfect for lifetilt problems. But in an all in hand it really shouldnt be an issue. I think he messed up equities vs one player drawing rather then 2 or the most probable he has no clue?

I'm all for bashing pros who pretend to play mixed games, but given the sims the reactions seem a bit harsh. He may have given up a couple % in equity by not breaking J8, whereas if he had broken a T8 instead it would have been an epic fail. And btw, why aren't aces low in this game??

str8 or better · 06-29-2012, 12:43 PM

Negreanu from SSII:

"So what hand becomes a favorite over two other people drawing? The answer is a nine"

Vempele · 06-29-2012, 04:47 PM

T9875 is 34% against 7432 and 7432, so epic fail indeed.

SGspecial · 06-29-2012, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vempele

T9875 is 34% against 7432 and 7432, so epic fail indeed.

Those weren't the hands cockboat was simming with. I dunno if his reads on what grinder and bloch were drawing to are accurate, but you'll have to take that up with him or someone else who has a clue about this game

Vempele · 06-29-2012, 05:50 PM

I was referring to a hypothetical Negreanu breaking a ten. He may not break T9875 specifically, reasoning that 9875 fares even worse (because it's a straight draw), but he'd certainly break T7432...

Um, my point is somewhat undermined by the fact that if both villains turned over 7432, the correct play would be to break T7432 because no one is holding anyone's outs. Then again, if you start with A23 in Razz and the board reads AA2233, you're almost guaranteed to brick the next two streets (on a sample of one), so maybe it's better to pat and drive them to tilt as their nut draws brick once more.

betgo · 06-29-2012, 08:52 PM

The probabilities may be fairly close actually. I think the pat was a mistake though because the two players checking it down could be drawing pretty rough, but they are almost never drawing to worse than the J8, so I think Israelasvilli had good equity if he drew with often the best draw.

snowboard789 · 07-03-2012, 08:07 PM

one thing that has gone unmentioned.
ok Isra is obv inexperienced,
but Bloch's blunder is bigger when he doesn't bet a 23578 against this check all streets /open pat line!

tringlomane · 07-03-2012, 09:12 PM

Yeah this is a bad pat. COCKBOAT's numbers also ignore the effects of previous draws which actually favors the draws by a point or two usually.

Bloch checking the river is definitely way worse though.

DeathDonkey · 07-03-2012, 09:30 PM

Um Bloch's river check is fine, the guy with the pat hand is already all in, the other guys drew, there is a dry side pot, no chance the third guy calls without a pretty strong hand, and once in a blue moon he's checkraising

Bjornar · 07-03-2012, 10:57 PM

Id call it a blunder if Bloch has like number 5 or better and maybe we have to make that number 3 or better. As DD says there is no sidepot here and there are ICM considerations to be made(assuming this is in the money which I believe it is).

DjSkyy · 07-03-2012, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

Ha I read that update a bit ago and it tilted me just reading it. I cannot think of any conditions in which he should pat in that spot, he simply doesn't have enough dead card info to make the equity calculation adjustments and it is highly unlikely he (or anyone really) would be able to do the math that quick anyway.

Very very likely what you saw is something that is super common with inexperienced lowball players, some incorrect magical notion that a "pat hand" is better than a "drawing hand", when they simply don't know the equities. I mean gosh what if he broke and then paired and an ace low won?!? Conveniently forgetting the times he makes an 86 and beats the 87 that busted him this hand.

i see this all the time, although not too often with pat jacks pre-draw lol