I've been looking back at some KCL tourney reporting for tidbits. I realize those guys are sometimes playing a "different game" so it won't always be useful, but this is one where I think it is. I tend to read everything on here KCL-related but forgive me if this is old territory - I hadn't seen it. Oh, and hand description courtesy of Card Player.

2010 WSOP $10k 2-7 NL
Level 9 (200/400-100)
Tom Dwan raised to 2,700 from the cutoff and Huck Seed moved all-in for 7,000 from the button and was called by Dwan.

Seed drew one and Dwan stood pat. Seed showed a 10-9-8-6-2 and took the pot against Dwan’s Q-J-9-4-2. Seed doubled up to 15,600 and Dwan dropped to a very healthy 56,000.

We don't tend to think of queens as good pat hands, but when all the chips are bet before the draw pros seem to regularly pat with queens. In Hellmuth's final hand versus Juanda in 2011 his equity was basically the same given Juanda's draw (whether Hellmuth held a J or a Q) but that's not true in this case. Whether Seed was drawing to a ten or a 9 he was around a 60% favorite. Had Dwan had a J instead Dwan would be a 58% favorite. However, against Seed's specific hand Dwan would lose about 2% of equity if he throws the queen. In fact, if Seed is drawing to anything better than a Jack, Dwan loses equity by dropping his queen.

it really depends whether a guy is going to turn his jack or even ten into a bluff postdraw.

Kinda bad spot for durrrr there. He has a nice stack and probably ok tight blinds so his hand is a steal that has decent equity vs a draw. He can bet-fold it pre here though. I pat queens when I play HU SNG because I have a similar draw to what durrrr had here. My equity doesnt improve enough if I hit a perfect draw.

This. My point was that this wasn't intuitive to me and not how I learned the game. After enough hands this was intuitive to you - I had to run the numbers and it surprised me.

#Event30

Dwan had 3 options and happened to make the one with the highest equity (although they are incredibly close) in this situation:

1. Draw 2 to a 9
2. Draw 1 to a J
3. Pat the Q

Assuming that Seed was drawing to an 9862


Simulated 100000 2-7 Lowball Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator

Player	Equity	Win Hi	Tie Hi	Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total	Range
1	41.7	41.7	0.0	(1:1)/2598960	Qs Js 9s 4s 2c
2	58.3	58.3	0.0	(48:43)/2598960	9c 8c 6c 2s

Simulated 100000 2-7 Lowball Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator

Player	Equity	Win Hi	Tie Hi	Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total	Range
1	39.0	39.0	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	Js 9s 4s 2c
2	61.0	61.0	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	9c 8c 6c 2s

Simulated 100000 2-7 Lowball Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator

Player	Equity	Win Hi	Tie Hi	Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total	Range
1	39.4	39.4	0.1	(1176:990)/2598960	9s 4s 2c
2	60.6	60.5	0.1	(48:45)/2598960	9c 8c 6c 2s

Pretty much anytime your opponent is drawing 1 better then you and your option is to break a Q and draw to a rough J or 10 you are better off standing pat (at least in an all-in situation like this). But in cases where you are pretty confident you have the same or a better draw than your opponent its better to break the Q and draw.

Simulated 100000 2-7 Lowball Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator

Player	Equity	Win Hi	Tie Hi	Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total	Range
1	57.7	57.7	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	7s 5s 3s 2c
2	42.3	42.3	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	9c 8c 6c 2s

Simulated 100000 2-7 Lowball Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator

Player	Equity	Win Hi	Tie Hi	Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total	Range
1	40.8	40.8	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	Js 5s 3s 2c
2	59.2	59.2	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	9c 8c 6c 2s

Simulated 100000 2-7 Lowball Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator

Player	Equity	Win Hi	Tie Hi	Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total	Range
1	43.1	43.1	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	10s 9s 3s 2c
2	56.9	56.9	0.0	(48:44)/2598960	9c 8c 6c 2s

Goes to show how powerful position is in this game as his hand would play as a huge loser if the positions were swapped.

They were all in though

if the hand description is correct, Dwan opens for 7 BBs!!?? I imagine it could be that he wants to show everyone behind him that he isn't folding pre but even so this is just ridiculous sizing.

wait a minute:

is that data showing that drawing two to a 942 is almost exactly the same as drawing one to a J942? Like, it would result in the same average hand after a draw? Or does it only suggest that it's about equal in equity against a one card draw to a 9862?

i guess i'm surprised because i usually think of a two card draw as a fairly hopeless endeavor, whereas i think of a draw to a jack as a relatively high (around 50/50) percentage draw.