Fixed Limit 5 Card Draw Hand evaluation thread

[Huricano]

Why we don't have one?
I don't mind opening a new thread for every hand and ask "should i vbet my 2pair here?"
Post hand, reads/notes/Hud stats and wait for other to blame you

Me first

Hand 1
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1592013
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is CO with A A Q 6 6
UTG calls, MP folds, Hero raises, BTN calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls

First Draw: (9 SB) (4 players)
SB draws 1, UTG draws 1, Hero draws 1, BTN draws 1
Hand: A A 6 6 5
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero ?

UTG 24/8 after 25h so looks passive. Pot is nice but I think someone...something complete here (draw or full house)

Hand 2
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1592014
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BB with A K T 8 6
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls, SB calls, Hero checks

First Draw: (3 SB) (3 players)
SB draws 3, Hero draws 3, BTN draws 1
Hand: A A K K 6
SB checks, Hero?

BU is UTG from first hand

a) I c/c to let BTN bluff his busted draws
b) I go for a c/r/fold...BTN will bet his 2pair and never fold to a raise so I gain 2bb and also let him bluff his busted draw. If he 3bet I can easily fold.
c) He looks like a nit and might check back 2pair so I bet myself and fold to a BTN raise

Hand 3
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1592015
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Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with K K J 4 4
Hero raises, MP folds, CO folds, BTN 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, Hero?

Villain 12/9 after 60h...

a) omg what a fk***g nit...I fold
b) c'mon that's KKup! I call, draw 1 and hope for a free showdown (c/f) against TTup-QQup
c) I call and discard 3 to KK. C/r trips, fold 2pair.
d) call pre and call post unless he stand pat

[Bjornar]

Hand 1 is normally a standard call but fold is also fine, everyone drew 1 after all...
Hand 2 is clearly c to me.
Hand 3, dont know what that stat is supposed to tell me since Ive never ever used any kind of HUD or anything so I play standard call-evaluate. And Im drawing 1 OOP unless I have a sick read Im supposed to draw 3.

[D-d-d-dddrraw]

Hand 3, according to stats, i think fold is better. KK66 or 3322 is the same against such a player.

[bigpooch]

1) Fold.
2) Check and call; you stated that BTN was UTG from 1) so 24/8 means that he likely open raises 2p+ and maybe AA ( 2p+~ 7.63% ), so I'd think BTN has a flush/straight draw here; betting isn't too bad if the SB calls quite often in this situation.
3) You can't fold this predraw, partly because of metagame reasons and as you mentioned, there may be some chance the BTN has two pairs that are slightly weaker; postdraw, folding unimproved is acceptable.

[D-d-d-dddrraw]

To me, someone able to open limp (draw ? very low two pairs ?) utg and making his first 3bet after 60 hands AND vs utg never have less than AAxx here. How many times will he have AAQQ- ? Trips + ?

[Huricano]

The problem is that you both have right

Of course if I fold I'm exploitable, but I really can't imagine 12/9 guy having QQup here...I still feel bad about this call
Adjusting to nits is so hard...

[D-d-d-dddrraw]

You'ne not exploitable by nits. They dont care about your hands, only what they have, take it easy.

I have a question for this thread.
When i 3bet with two pairs, i never fold to a 4bet. Never. With some basics maths (what do i lose if i fold 100% or call 100% and hit full 1/11) i find it a bit ev+ or ev0 but i'm not sure of that.. Any idea ?

[bigpooch]

Originally Posted by D-d-d-dddrraw

You'ne not exploitable by nits. They dont care about your hands, only what they have, take it easy.

I have a question for this thread.
When i 3bet with two pairs, i never fold to a 4bet. Never. With some basics maths (what do i lose if i fold 100% or call 100% and hit full 1/11) i find it a bit ev+ or ev0 but i'm not sure of that.. Any idea ?

In some spots you have to fold two pairs: e.g., in the BB vs SB with 3322, you clearly 3-bet and when you get 4-bet, normally fold.

[LudGlarus]

Originally Posted by bigpooch

1) Fold.
2) Check and call; you stated that BTN was UTG from 1) so 24/8 means that he likely open raises 2p+ and maybe AA ( 2p+~ 7.63% ), so I'd think BTN has a flush/straight draw here; betting isn't too bad if the SB calls quite often in this situation.
3) You can't fold this predraw, partly because of metagame reasons and as you mentioned, there may be some chance the BTN has two pairs that are slightly weaker; postdraw, folding unimproved is acceptable.

+1

One hand from me:

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1596283
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with J J J 6 3
Hero raises, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB 3-bets, BB caps!, Hero calls, SB calls

First Draw: (12 SB) (3 players)
SB draws 1, BB draws 2, Hero draws 2
Hand: J J J 5 5
SB bets, BB calls, Hero ?

SB is 19/15 with 9% 3b predraw. BB is 32/29 and again 9 % 3b.Raise or just call ?

[bigpooch]

Originally Posted by LudGlarus

+1

One hand from me:

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1596283
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with J J J 6 3
Hero raises, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB 3-bets, BB caps!, Hero calls, SB calls

First Draw: (12 SB) (3 players)
SB draws 1, BB draws 2, Hero draws 2
Hand: J J J 5 5
SB bets, BB calls, Hero ?

SB is 19/15 with 9% 3b predraw. BB is 32/29 and again 9 % 3b.Raise or just call ?

I would raise and strongly consider folding to the 3-bet from the SB unless the SB was a "beginner"! I would think the SB has something like aces up that improved to a boat; now, if he had made aces full, why didn't he checkraise? It seems pretty clear that you and the BB have trips and it's likely ( but not certain ) someone is going to bet. If the BB can't lay down trips in this spot, it's an easy raise since you only need to be good just over 1/3 of the time.

[Huricano]

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1597690
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BB with J J 8 4 4
UTG folds, MP raises, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP calls

First Draw: (6.4 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 1, MP draws 1
Hand: J J 4 4 3
Hero checks, MP checks

Villain looks normal after 20h (20/18 so far) but few hands ago he pay off my AAA with 9922 so It's likely that he is going to call any 2 pair postdraw.
I put him on KK+, so I 3bet for value predraw but check to him postdraw, since JJup is median to 2 pair and he also has 4 outs to improve. What's the worse hand to value bet here? (assuming that he pay off with 3322x)
QQup? Or maybe JJXXA?
And what to do if he draws 3?
If he's gonna call with UI AA then bet, because (if KK,AA=2) KKup+ will be ~0,58 of his range and AA ui ~0,71, yes?

[Huricano]

#1

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1597793
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is SB with A K Q Q 5
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls, Hero raises, BB folds, BTN calls

First Draw: (5 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 3, BTN draws 3
Hand: A K Q Q 4
Hero checks, BTN checks

Limping pussy 34/16 after 200+ hands. One limp/raise so far.

#2

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1597810
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is SB with A J J 6 5
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls, Hero raises, BB folds, BTN calls

First Draw: (5 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 3, BTN draws 3
Hand: K J J 5 2
Hero checks, BTN checks

Limper 33/10 after 70h

Two similar hands. Well played?
And big questions:
What is the worse pair to iso-raise and discard 3 (pair+flushdraw)?
How to play lower pair+flushdraw in this situation (SB vs limper) e.g. 9938K What to discard?

[bigpooch]

Originally Posted by Huricano

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1597690
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BB with J J 8 4 4
UTG folds, MP raises, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP calls

First Draw: (6.4 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 1, MP draws 1
Hand: J J 4 4 3
Hero checks, MP checks

Villain looks normal after 20h (20/18 so far) but few hands ago he pay off my AAA with 9922 so It's likely that he is going to call any 2 pair postdraw.
I put him on KK+, so I 3bet for value predraw but check to him postdraw, since JJup is median to 2 pair and he also has 4 outs to improve. What's the worse hand to value bet here? (assuming that he pay off with 3322x)
QQup? Or maybe JJXXA?
And what to do if he draws 3?
If he's gonna call with UI AA then bet, because (if KK,AA=2) KKup+ will be ~0,58 of his range and AA ui ~0,71, yes?

Just because a specific hand will show a positive expectation by betting doesn't necessarily mean that strategically, it is optimal in a game-theoretic sense to bet when OOP ( e.g., see some of the "toy games" in MOP, especially Ch. 17 ); when you check, are you willing to call in such a way so as not to be exploitable ( you should have some 3-bet semibluffing hands; otherwise, why should a player call with an unimproved pair of aces? )? OTOH, here in this specific situation, your value betting range is so strong relative to the opponent's range, you could value bet your entire range in the case that the opponent draws three: bet since his calling frequency > twice his improvement probability ( this does mean that there are some hands to semibluff 3-bet with to have some bluffing range on your c-bet postdraw ).

OPENER DRAWS ONE
=============

When the opponent draws one, this depends on how often he doesn't 4-bet with a hand that he could and his range of semibluffs that he continues with, so it comes down to crunching some numbers of combinations. If the opponent will call so as to not be exploited and folds the proper frequency ( since his range will be relatively weaker than your range ), consider that the pot will be $1.55 so take the top (1/2)(1.55)/(1.55+0.5) of the opponent's postdraw effective combinations ( disregarding your cards; it's also possible to work it out including your cards, but that means you'd have to make different computations based on what your hand looks like including kickers and suit distribution ) to see what his median hand is in the calling+ range. Now, this will only give you an approximation because of card removal effects and it's not that important since it's not an exact science to guess what the opponent's range is when he draws one and just calls the 3-bet predraw.

For example, suppose the opponent caps with 222+ but trap calls with quads and calls the 3-bet with any two pairs and only calls with any draw he would play and say his draws will only be 12- or 15-out draws ( without a pair of aces or kings ) and any AK-high or AQ-high flush draw that doesn't include a pair of kings/aces ( so it's a very tight semibluffing range ).

Quads: 624 ( easy number to remember )
Two pairs: 123552 ( remember this one if you don't already )
15-out draws without KK: 4x9x3x11-4x3 = 1176
12-out draws without AA/KK: 4x32x3x12-4(8+6)x3 = 4440
AK-high flush draw without AA/KK: 4[C(11,2)-3]x3x11 = 6864
AQ-high flush draw without AA: 4[C(10,2)-1]x3x12 = 6336

total: 142992 combinations

Now, the median calling+ hand will be at the bottom of the best (1/2)(1.55/2.05) of these or about the 54058th best combination postdraw ( the actual number is ~54057.95 ).

Subtracting off quads (624), boats ( 123552 x 4/47 ), made draws ( 1176(15/47)+4440(12/47)+(6864+6336)(9/47) ) from 54057.95 gives the number of 38882.29 which represents the effective number of combinations of two pairs in the upper half of the calling+ range. Dividing this by 1584(43/47) ( there are 1584 combinations of each specific two pairs of the type XXYYx and these two pairs did not improve to a boat ), we get 26.83 where aces-up is 12 of these and kings-up is 11 of these, so the median hand for the opener to at least call with postdraw looks like QQ883.

If your opponent has a wider semibluffing range, then you could value bet wider; conversely, if your opponent would have folded to the 3-bet with some of his very weakest two pairs and trap calls with some high trips as well, you likely need a better hand. All the above doesn't take into consideration card removal effects and the cards you've seen, so if you had started with QQ99T and end up with QQ99J, you're better off checking since it's now less likely than normal for the opponent to have hands like tens-up or jacks-up to call with. Suit distribution matters too: suppose you have QQJJ and don't improve but altogether you've seen 3 spades and 3 hearts; if the opponent has a fairly wide range of flush draws, you would have to think your suit distibution makes it a bit more likely than normal that the opponent has a flush draw, so you should probably use this hand as a bluff-catcher, even though in general, QQ99+ is worth a value bet.

Of course, if your opponent is a calling station, you can value bet quite a bit lighter; then, just consider those hands in the 3322+ range ( or if he is calling with some high pairs on his semibluffs that paired up, you might consider those combinations too ).

[bigpooch]

Originally Posted by Huricano

#1

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1597793
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is SB with A K Q Q 5
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls, Hero raises, BB folds, BTN calls

First Draw: (5 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 3, BTN draws 3
Hand: A K Q Q 4
Hero checks, BTN checks

Limping pussy 34/16 after 200+ hands. One limp/raise so far.

#2

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit 5 Card Draw - 6 players - View hand 1597810
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is SB with A J J 6 5
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls, Hero raises, BB folds, BTN calls

First Draw: (5 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 3, BTN draws 3
Hand: K J J 5 2
Hero checks, BTN checks

Limper 33/10 after 70h

Two similar hands. Well played?
And big questions:
What is the worse pair to iso-raise and discard 3 (pair+flushdraw)?
How to play lower pair+flushdraw in this situation (SB vs limper) e.g. 9938K What to discard?

Normal hands.

The worst hands to isoraise from the SB depends on the limper's range, but JJ and a hand like TTAJx should be worth an isolation raise, but of course, we've seen some players limp in with JJ or QQ from the BTN.

With any pair less than 99 and a flush draw that includes an A/K, tend to draw to the flush since you could accidentally win by pairing up on the highest card. With 99, it's a bit closer, but I'd still think that you have some implied odds when making a flush; OTOH, it's not impossible that the BTN limper ( or BB ) can't even beat 99, so there is some danger in breaking off the best hand predraw.

[Huricano]

when you check, are you willing to call in such a way so as not to be exploitable

1.55/(0.5+1.55)*100%=75,6% but I wonder if it should be the top 75,6%...
I mean maybe c/f TT993 with (1-1-1-2) suit distribution and c/c 5544A (3-2) ?
His likely not going to bet anything between those 2 hands so maybe second is better to bluff catch? If so then It will be fine homework to find out those 3/4 pay-off hands including suit distribution and fifth card

OTOH, here in this specific situation, your value betting range is so strong relative to the opponent's range, you could value bet your entire range in the case that the opponent draws three: bet since his calling frequency > twice his improvement probability ( this does mean that there are some hands to semibluff 3-bet with to have some bluffing range on your c-bet postdraw ).

calling frequency > twice his improvement probability

Not sure if I get it...he need to call with 75,6% frequency so if his range=2 he need to pay off with 0,756*2=1,51 and KKup+ is ~0,58... Twice because he need to call at least other 0,58+ worse to make a value bet.
1,51 > 2*0,58 ???
Did I understand it correctly?