It's 0.25/0.50, most people probably don't fold any 1cd draw here even for 2 bets cold. It's possible he does, but it's unlikely he has a similar draw to us anyway, and more often he'll have a better one if he improved to a 1cd draw.

Shrug I guess I agree that most people don't punish the raise with enough 3 bets but a more important consideration is how often they break the best hand. If they never break a winner I'm confident even if they never bluff you are getting the money in badly. A ten is simply a dog to a 1 card draw twice, so you need them to make some big FTOP mistakes.

DD,

Think about it from our opponents perspective when we raise. To them our range is a ten or better. Against that range we are an equity (possibly 66% equity) favorite. It doesn't matter that this one hand in our range is a dog to his hand, as long as our range is a favorite. We can't just look at this hand discretely and answer whats best, we need to think of every hand we hold in that situation. Ideally we would take this hand out of our raising range and put it in our calling range, but that gives way to much information to our opponent and would be hard to balance when we currently have a very easy way to balance.

No, it's not simple. Assuming the players see each other's cards, T7432 (1 draw left) is 50.1% vs 7xx2, 8www (2 draws left):

7432: 57.31%
7532, 7542: 51.26%
7632, 7642: 50.59%
7652: 48.01%
8432: 50.36%
8532-8543: 48.01%

(calculated by hand).

T8732, on the other hand, is clearly a dog unless the 1cd range is very wide.

Not sure why you did T7432 here, other to point out it's a flip vs. 7ww2? Basically its a flip for any decent draw if you need to spike a 9 or better to win, I would think. If snagging a ten allows you to win, then the draw is definitely the favorite.

What I really want to do is try to answer Brian's point (what is the draw's equity vs the entire turn raising range of pat ten or better?) by effing with a spreadsheet and 2 dimes, which is going to be a PITA. But considering T7432 is a flip here, I would assume the entire range is a favorite, but I may be wrong. Maybe after I wake up later today...we'll see.

Suppose you have a J, particularly with a rough draw or no draw underneath. Wouldn't you call and pat if opponent draws? How do these hands factor into a well balanced strategy?

Ah I understand the argument a lot better now, for some reason I didn't realize this is what you were arguing for until now. My counter points are really just re-hashes of what I've already said though, that I think we need some sort of freezing range in this spot since the times he draws we will have a profitable pat and its a good use of our position to basically have a category of hands that are "flexible" and I think this one exemplifies that. It was also already posted and I agree that the equity gain when we pat the Ten vs his draw cannot be overcome even by optimal river bluffing by villain, so even though it is "hard to balance" it is profitable even face up.

I guess I am arguing that rather than say "this is our range that is 66% favored and we are going to balance by playing all the hands the same" I have two ranges, one that is more than 66% favored (although probably not really since I would just include some more snows in there) and one that is a freezing range that may or may not be breakable if he pats in front of us, but if he draws in front of us will always be favored to make money despite our hand being face up as "weak".

one must do calcs to these things:
the ev of patting was found by tringlo

the ev of raising and patting/breaking accordingly *combined* with the possibility that he is already pat with a rough 9 and he breaks it *combined* with the possibility of he is not pat and we squeeze one more BB as a favorite

VS

paying 3 bets to draw

Like DD, i prefer calling most of the time in spots like this. I think its ok to sometimes raise Ts in this spot, but i would do it with hands that i can comfortably draw to if 3bet or Ts with really bad draws under.

I love when highstakes crushers join in our debates

who is he? blow his cover!

i think its something thats either known or easy to find out, but i wont say anything just in case

thanks for chiming in. I was wondering what your opinion was on this. I was surprised you advocate this play because of the coaching I received from you I suppose things change and people improve though. Or I just misunderstood in our session.

Also the monkey poo doesn't fling as freely at 0.25/0.50 either.

I didn't get around to mass analyzing this today, still want to, but so lazy.

+1 Gotta know your opponent in this spot and with our draw we are putting in money really badly vs some people's range by calling 3 and breaking and against others are punished too often by worse and not breaking nearly enough better hands, ESPECIALLY against good observant opponents who catch on that we are always raising pat tens 2:1 regardless of our draw underneath or opponent. We can capture the equity of patting the ten here after he draws AND still balance well enough to make it harder for our opponent to play river optimally.