I'm trying to start more original threads, and thought this hand interesting.

Live 5 handed 40 mix in Badugi round. We have a walker and are waiting for a player. A high stakes full time player who plays as high as 200 or 400 in Vegas/CA has just joined the game from an aborted 75 that never got going. Fold, and he opens, button/SB fold, and I have 764 in BB.

He's usually very active in Badugi, considers it one of his better games, and I believe because he feels it's a good game to exploit bad players by snowing or thinly value betting. He's in good humor, not stuck yet and so I have no reason to believe he'll play worse than usual. He likely views me as somewhat nitty/predicable, exploitable in that I cannot hand-read as well as him and will sometimes make bad calls or folds.

I know he opens 2 card hands widely, even in MP/EP in weak games, and so should have a bunch in his range here, but I'm not really happy 3 betting a bad 7 draw OOP so I just call.

1-2. I don't improve but bet, and he calls.

1-2. I don't improve but bet, and he calls.

1-1. I don't improve and check.

One would think his 2 card should be at least a 2 card 5 or better, and if he spikes a 3 card 4 (or even 5) or any pat hand I expect him to 100% raise after first or second draw, or bet the river.

1) Is my line optimal given his aggressive tendencies?

2) If he raises any street or bets the river, can I/should I call?

3) If not, how exploitable is that? It seems like we are both playing face up poker in that spot, and while he's aggressive and can be creative I can't imagine I'm ever being raised by worse.

Later I can run some equity calcs but first wanted to write up the hand while it was fresh in my mind.

Pre can go either way but listening to his tendencies and I think I prefer to 3 bet this.

On the second draw, I think I would draw 1/stay pat and lead the river. Put the ball in his court. If you had a better three-card(all the way up to a good 6) you can probably make a much better/standard case for drawing a card on the last round because your hand would have pretty good value even unimproved. But, if he happens to improve on the second draw(as he did), then you'll have no way of knowing that til its too late, thus, being OOP with an unimproved rough 7 is going to put you in a very difficult spot, which is why I prefer to just stay pat when I can see that he's still taking 2. It should give him more reason to fold a lot of his middle of the road three cards, too, unless he's really just splashing around.

As played, I would check the river. I would expect a real good reader of cards to put the pieces of the puzzle together and read you for a hand just like the one you had/ look you up if he has a three card 7, because, if you had a better three card, then why didn't you reraise coming in? Which, may be the reason your hand looks a ~little face up.

+1

I think you played the hand fine. He's not folding anything that beats you to a bet on the river. Eh, maybe another bad 3-card Seven? Nah. When you check the river you expect him to bet all his badugis and his better 3-card hands, but would he bet with something like 92A as a bluff? If not you can't beat anything he bets the river with and his calling range wallops 764 so there's nothing to win in a bet.

thanks agree with all of this

I like a flat v 3 bet pre. you don't KNOW he's got a 2 draw, your 7 is rough, you're out of position, and you admit he might have a bit better feel than you in this game. For a lot of these same reasons (except now you know he's drawing 2) I greatly prefer checking rather than leading into him after first draw. he's never folding, you haven't improved, and you can only get raised and again, you're out of position. this seems -ev to me.
after it goes 1-2 on second draw and you don't improve I DEFINITELY like a lead/pat line here. if you get raised i would call/pat repping a middling badugi. I would check fold if he pats behind and obv lead again if he draws.

as played i'm check folding if he bets on the end.

I think that a pre flop 3b greatly increases the perceived strength of hand, and makes barreling off a snow more effective. Otherwise you are playing face up and he's going to exploit you very effectively headsup.

Also consider the number of combinations of 2 card hands vs. 3 card hands and pat hands. If someone liberally opens 2 card hands (not just A2/A3/23 but A7, 26, etc) I haven't done the math but am very confident that there are more combos of 2 card hands than 3 cards/pat hands combined, even if they open 3 card Jacks.

And I think I did a good job of describing Villain's perception of me, but I don't think his read is accurate, or at least it's dated, my hand reading skills have improved significantly in Badugi as well as the other games. I was reluctant to describe my read on him, which I can summarize in that he plays too loosely. I think he focuses on exploiting bad players by playing too many hands to use his hand reading skills to snow heavily and value bet thinly, but against strong players his hands are fairly face up and his ranges too weak.

And as played I agree, calling a bet on the river would be bad.

It's perfect that villain has the wrong perception of you, cause he thinks you're a nitty, weak/tight predictable player. Use that in your favor, which, is probably one of the more key reasons for patting after the 2nd draw and then leading the river.

Making a Badugi is great and we all want to hit strong ones, but heads up, and this hand in particular, when you know that your 3-card is very vulnerable to wind up being the best 3-card by the river, it's important to think about how you can sell your hand as a Badugi vs. actually making one.