Quote:
Originally Posted by powder_8s
Just wondering if there is a good resource for answering questions like. When to break AA and draw to a 4 flush when dealt AAxxx 4 spades?
Cheers
Look in Doyle Brunson's
Super System (not
Super System II). There's an excellent extensive (about 75 pages) section about draw poker written by Mike Caro and co-authored by Doyle.
I think the answer to your question depends on how many players will be drawing cards and might be continuing. If you're talking about a private game where players often draw to trash and then call on the river, then what to do may differ from what to do in a tight game of casino regulars.
The basic idea when you're drawing to a flush, is since you're usually going to miss, you need to be able to collect enough when you make your draw and end up with a winning flush to cover the times you (1) miss your draw, and also the times you (2) make your draw, but have your flush lose to a better hand (most likely a full house).
When you're using a 52 card deck (no joker), you're looking at five cards, and four of the are of the same suit, let's say hearts, then there are 47 unseen cards, of which 9 are hearts and 38 are some other suit. Your odds of getting a heart if you draw one card are thus 38 to 9 against, or roughly 4.2 to 1 against catching a heart. In other words, you should expect to miss 4.2 times for every 1 time you make the heart flush
If it costs you $10 to draw each time, then your expected loss for the 4.2 times you lose is -$42. You want to be able to recover your $42 investment plus have a cushion to cover the times you make your heart flush only to lose anyway. Probably winning $50 when you win will cover your expenses.
In other words, if it costs you $10 to draw, you have to be able to collect $50 when you do make a winning heart flush. Usually you won't be able to do that.
However, in a loose private game, if five opponents also pay $10 to draw, you're covered. Alternatively, if only three opponents also pay $10, but one of them will pay another $20 to see your hand when you successfully make a winning heart flush, then you're also covered. Perhaps you can see there are various other alternatives as well... ways you can collect five times what it costs you to draw.
That's the basic idea when you're drawing to a flush.
The situation is more complicated than just drawing to a flush when you also have a pair of aces... because your pair of aces is probably better than the holdings of your opponents, and you might improve to two pairs or better. A single unimproved pair of aces might be a winning hand and two pairs, aces over, is probably
usually a winning hand in this game.
Bottom line in a tight game against strong opponents is you probably won't be able to recover enough when you do make your flush to cover the times you don't plus the times you do, only to lose to a better hand. In such a game, draw to the aces.
But read what Mike and Doyle had to say about five card draw back in nineteen seventies when draw poker was still the most popular poker game. It's good stuff, in my humble opinion.
Buzz