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Old 03-16-2017, 11:39 AM   #1
DMoogle
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20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Playing a 20-40 mix game (hurray for low stakes mixed games), games are LHE, O8, S8, and 2-7. Table doesn't seem that great, but not horrible either. Probably 3-4 pros, but some really bad players as well. I probably have the worst seat position at the table, but I'm mostly playing to get experience in mixed games, since I'm a PLO specialist and I'm trying to change that. I only have a few hours of TD experience (although I've started watching some videos and I'm reading Super/System 2's section on it).

Anyway, the hand:
Folds to cutoff who opens, who I think is a pro or semi-pro, but I've definitely seen him splash around some, so I think he's new to mixed games as well. Button 3-bets. Button is a NLHE pro who was playing 10/25 NL earlier, but I'm pretty sure he's experienced in mixed games. I'm pretty sure he's 3-betting his entire playable range here (i.e. he's never flatting).

I have a tight image and I'm in the small blind with 96532. Big blind is a very loose/bad player. What's my play, and what's my plan for the hand?

I ended up folding because I'm a nit and didn't know what to do, but I'm thinking that I could 4-bet, stand pat, and keep betting until I meet resistance. If someone else stands pat or raises me on a later street, then I could call and break the nine. This seems like very "vulnerable" play though. Thoughts?

Last edited by DMoogle; 03-16-2017 at 12:07 PM. Reason: 4-bet, not cap
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Old 03-16-2017, 11:57 AM   #2
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

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Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
I have a tight image and I'm in the small blind with 96532. Big blind is a very loose/bad player. What's my play, and what's my plan for the hand?
4bet. And hope to sweet Jesus that they don't get there.
If the bb also calls, you can break.
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Old 03-16-2017, 12:09 PM   #3
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Actually, I said "cap," but now that I think about it, I believe 5 bets was actually the cap in this game (unless heads up, in which case no limit).

This might actually make a difference, because if someone 5-bet caps, then there's a strong chance that they have a better pat hand and I should break by 9 immediately, correct?
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Old 03-16-2017, 03:34 PM   #4
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

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Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
Actually, I said "cap," but now that I think about it, I believe 5 bets was actually the cap in this game (unless heads up, in which case no limit).

This might actually make a difference, because if someone 5-bet caps, then there's a strong chance that they have a better pat hand and I should break by 9 immediately, correct?


Yes. But the general point is that you should 4 bet with 2356 in this position regardless. That's almost never gonna be a fold pre.


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Old 03-16-2017, 09:06 PM   #5
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Cap.

Folding is terrible.
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Old 03-16-2017, 09:35 PM   #6
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

This is a draw 1 if both call and pat if we lose a player? Or always draw1
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Old 03-16-2017, 09:38 PM   #7
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Seems like we should cap and break, right?

I just tried one sample matchup

96532 vs 2458 and 237 is 36%

6532 vs those hands is 40%

By breaking you have a higher hot/cold and lop off reverse implied odds
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Old 03-17-2017, 03:36 PM   #8
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Break if multiway, pat and bet streets in position HU. Bet river vs D1 or worse if you have ever been caught without a hand.

Aggro reppy players often try to get early pats to break with c/r turn, pat and lead river line. I would usually show down vs an unknown, vary play based on history after.
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Old 03-17-2017, 04:59 PM   #9
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

You should always 4 bet here, especially if you believe they could both be drawing 2. I guess you got confused by thinking 6s are bad but its still a great draw, and the 9 is an added bonus.

Next, you really need to know if that's the cap or 5 betting is allowed as you will get additional info from the latter possibility here and it could be quite important in general too aha ;-)

As for how to proceed, I would just draw 1 oop unless it gets HU and there's a good chance the button is drawing 2, playing pat 9s oop isn't a lot of fun...

Also, Super System II is quite out of date now and if I recall DNegs wasn't really regarded as an expert in Triple Draw at the time, so some stuff like always 3 betting your range predraw isn't really how most modern pros play.
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Old 03-17-2017, 05:33 PM   #10
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

With three other dealt into the pot I would ask myself and then answer it with "well im such a fish imma call anyway" but without the big blind going into the pot you have something around 1/3 chance of hitting a smooth 8 or a good seven and that third rewards itself with implied odds. If there is a cap then cap it or else just call. If 3 TAGs raises and calls and **** pre-draw when I am in big blind with a str8 draw without a tower (sevens and eights) I usually just fold to a 3bet but will call just one raise and draw 1 in those cases since there is a big chance someone will hit a seven while I maybe only have 1 out left three times. But vs two villain this is just a hand that should go on autopilot, aggro and capping and not spewing if another villain also draws 1.

Also in a strange way you can pat a 9low if you don't have 1/3 hitting equity witch is needed in a threeway. By patting first draw and then discarding it gives you 1/3 equity on first draw (you lend your gun to your buddy and decide to shot with it after first draw if they both has tight 1-card range for example) when you are OOP and then depending on how many VILLAINS are drawing and what their ranges are is shown to you can decide if that 9-low will win the second third or not, it they both draw 2 on first draw you have a lot of % on your side winning the first two thirds of the hand and in the end on third draw if both of them draws one means basically that everyone has 1/3 each. But you have to know your aim on having the best hand during second draw before you pat or decide to break it. Patting on first draw gives also a good chance of one of the villains folding before third draw witch means you ate enough equity (66 to 88% of the coin) for two players vs the last one drawing (but be aware of the tax man).

Last edited by doylebrunson1337; 03-17-2017 at 05:52 PM.
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:58 PM   #11
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

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Break if multiway, pat and bet streets in position HU. Bet river vs D1 or worse if you have ever been caught without a hand.

Aggro reppy players often try to get early pats to break with c/r turn, pat and lead river line. I would usually show down vs an unknown, vary play based on history after.
We are in the small blind...
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:42 PM   #12
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Oof. My bad.

I 4b and pat if it gets HU, break otherwise. If pat vs draw I bet until raised, then call down without additional info. This is not a great break with only 8 outs to improve. I'd be more inclined to break 97532 and similar.
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Old 03-17-2017, 10:09 PM   #13
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

I feel like people ITT think it will get HU if we 4bet more than it actually will be. Even if we assume that the bb folds, the btn never folds, and the co almost never folds, probably folding at most about 5% of the time realistically.
So I would just assume that this would always be at least 3-way. In fact there's probably a greater chance of it being 4-way than it is HU.
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Old 03-18-2017, 01:43 AM   #14
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

agree, I would still pat this 3 ways. I basically use 96 and 95 as the hands I'm willing to break to action later in the hand.
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Old 03-18-2017, 05:08 AM   #15
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

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agree, I would still pat this 3 ways. I basically use 96 and 95 as the hands I'm willing to break to action later in the hand.
I spent some time on sims with different assumptions for mw here and I've concluded that with heavy action I do better by drawing. The bets saved when we fail to improve vs obv better and the bets gained when we improve decided it for me, not hot-and-cold equity, which does usually show a slight advantage to breaking. You still have to play the hand dynamically and with a third man in the pot you rarely get away with a simple click call strategy. So I usually break and draw one unless I'm playing against special opponents.

On breaking later, eh, 95 I get because it's marginally smoother so when we bink we can raise for value most of the time but I'd rather break a 97ww2 than 96xx2. The 96 will be good stood pat more often and has fewer outs to improve.

We need a few hands to catch villains who try to make us break with worse, and this seems like a good candidate for that.

Last edited by electrical; 03-18-2017 at 05:25 AM. Reason: fkn magnets
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Old 03-18-2017, 05:47 AM   #16
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

I guess I disagree entirely with you. Two separate discussions: pat or not pat early: we have value beyond hot cold equity when pat. The middle guy for instance will not draw two on the end nor will he draw to a smooth 9.
On breaking: well I will never have a 97 to break since I wouldn't pat that pre so this is literally bottom of my pat range. I don't think bottom of our range should ever be our bluffcatcher. It should be a break or fold when raised. Also 95 is only very very slightly better than 96 here. They usually both have the exact same amount of outs.
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Old 03-18-2017, 10:35 AM   #17
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

^ Pretty much agree with all that.
I don't think anyone is disputing that a pat clean 97 is a better break than 96, but we don't have that option here.
So the only relevance of that here is to signify that 96 would theoretically be the bottom of our pat range, when we're definitely breaking 97s.
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Old 03-18-2017, 11:40 AM   #18
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

I can see playing 96543 as literal bottom of pat range, giving up with it later as necessary. If you are seen to pat and fold later sometimes and that range includes Nines containing a Deuce, and presumably rough Eights without a redraw that's a lot of hands. Or are you gutting it out with more Eights?

A) as mentioned most sims I run show 6532 and similar having better equity 3-ways than the pat, which seems like a strong argument when tied to playability and implied odds advantages. For example vs a D2 and D1 we are usually slightly less than 30% equity pat, around 40% equity drawing (not elaborating drawing laws but this holds over a variety). Can you elaborate on how you expect to make up the apparent equity disadvantage? Especially out of position it seems hard to recoup that much.

B) there are Nines you can play as you describe that are only slightly weaker hot-and-cold but don't play well as draws. 96543 and 97543 for example are very similar hot and cold vs ranges but have no break.

C) I think we benefit from having what appears to be a stochastic range to call down with when villains try to make us break, meaning we will sometimes find ourselves folding bad Eights, sometimes not folding strong Nines. This prevents villains from clocking us precisely.

Really love getting to have these discussions by the way. Very hard to find people to talk Deuce with elsewhere. Thanks for taking the time.
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Old 03-18-2017, 08:57 PM   #19
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

Seeing this discussion is great to learn some of the finer points of the game from some of the best. Keep it up!
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Old 03-19-2017, 03:56 PM   #20
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

you're in great shape vs. 3-card hands, which probably make up the majority of both ranges. cap it.

because of the gutshot, I don't think breaking the 9 is an option.
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Old 03-23-2017, 03:50 PM   #21
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Re: 20/40 2-7 TD Predraw Spot

i fold 96543 and 4bet draw 1 here. EV slightly better than call draw 2.
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