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Old 05-16-2012, 01:24 PM   #1
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2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Didn't seem like a strong player, although probably spewy if anything.



Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 4 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB) Hero is SB with Q 9 8 5 2
CO raises, BTN folds, Hero calls, BB folds

First Draw: (5 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 2, CO draws 1
Hand: Q J 8 5 2
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls

Second Draw: (3.5 BB) (2 players)
Hero draws 2, CO draws 1
Hand: 9 8 7 5 2
Hero checks, CO checks

Third Draw: (3.5 BB) (2 players)
Hero stands pat, CO draws 1
Hand: 9 8 7 5 2
Hero checks


I figure this hand is strong enough to x/r given CO should be betting here always, but once it's checked back, pat the 9 and check as played? Can I find a fold in what's turned into a small pot if I'm bet at?

I think I might bet a stronger 9 here OTR as I would sometimes make this play with a snow after CO checks behind on the turn, but I'm not sure the guys at 1/2 appreciate that I'm trying to balance my range, so maybe I should not be bluffing/always bluff?
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Old 05-16-2012, 01:27 PM   #2
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

given that you'll have lots of J's and T's here, id feel bad about folding a 9.
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Old 05-16-2012, 04:03 PM   #3
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

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Originally Posted by Journeyman_1 View Post
given that you'll have lots of J's and T's here, id feel bad about folding a 9.
Yeah, this so much.
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Old 05-17-2012, 12:33 AM   #4
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Correct to go for the x/r OTT though? Or just x/c?

And what hands might we lead the river after turn checks through?
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:22 AM   #5
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

c/r is ok vs an unknown here imo. id bet some better 98's probably.
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:55 AM   #6
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Journeyman_1 View Post
c/r is ok vs an unknown here imo. id bet some better 98's probably.
Hmm, I always wondered whether it would be better to have a range for betting out here with some hands around 97-98 and then calling down optimally. Interesting that you do this.
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Old 05-17-2012, 10:06 AM   #7
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

I really don't get it, why would you ever bet anything out of position in a 2-1 spot ?! You let him play perfectly, he KNOWS your pat (and if you bet out drawing it's even more of a mistake) and can just call with the hands he wants, and raise the hands he wants.

Just let him bet and raise the hands you want and call the ones you want.

This is assuming we don't know the guy checks back sometimes obviously.
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:41 PM   #8
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Slight derail. I know the issue is turn action but I'd want to fold flop here. Is this wrong, and if so, why?
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Old 05-18-2012, 12:59 AM   #9
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

It's wrong because we're getting 6:1 and we have 30-50% equity if he hasn't improved. It's also wrong because if we fold this, we're folding 43% of the time.
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Old 05-18-2012, 11:50 AM   #10
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Why draw 2 here? With Q98 you can only improve to an 8. Thats 1 rank. If it was Q97 or QT8 I can see a chance for more significant improvement. Is it worth the risk to marginally improve?
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Old 05-18-2012, 12:16 PM   #11
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Are you thinking single draw? In triple draw, 9852 on the first draw is strictly worse than 852 except against pat hands that don't have the 98 drawing dead.
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Old 05-18-2012, 12:48 PM   #12
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Barbegris View Post
Slight derail. I know the issue is turn action but I'd want to fold flop here. Is this wrong, and if so, why?
The first thing that comes to my head is that if I fold UI here every time, villain can safely draw 1 every time after I flat pre, and bet into me every time and make a lot of money from me folding, either now or later in the hand.

IDK, maybe statistically you improve very often here drawing 2 to 852 one time? Sure seems like I don't...
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Old 05-19-2012, 09:38 AM   #13
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

river is not a fold cause as hand is played some ppl will think u went for a x/r and check back but some will think u have something like a T or J and bet a good T or something certainly and maybe bluff u out so i dont like folding this
if u c/r and then c and he bets out its a different story
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Old 05-20-2012, 11:12 PM   #14
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Re: 2-7TD - The x/r OTT goes awry, blessing in disguise?

I love 2-7, wish it was on more sites.
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