Hero faces unknown opponents in 2-7 Triple Draw.

Hero opens 257KQ in the cutoff with a raise.
Villain calls on the button.
All others fold.
Hero draws 2.
Villain Draws 2


Hero catches an 8 and bets
Villain raises

/////

Should the Hero call and draw 1?
or
Should the Hero call and draw 2, discarding the 8?

..and why?

Draw 1.

1: HUHU
2: I'm a psychic and he have a 9 pat.

If you catch a 3/4, re-raise him and see if he break the hand. If he caps, draw the 8.

call. draw 1.

Agree with the first two words of this post and nothing after

Yes, I know. I was waiting for someone to correct me. Was almost a question.

But yes, that his the kind of play I make.

Would you call with 87-low 3th Draw in the situation I wrote?

Villains range is 234, 237, 247, 257 here so Id bet 23478 and 23578 for value on third if he stands pat. Bet more 87 hands if you seen many blockers (like two 8s you got on first draw etc). Fold to raise from villain if he is tight nit, you would lose exactly as much if you decide to check/call after third.

Why is villain's range that tight?

Don't have an odds chart handy. 257 and 2 draws to go, the odds of making a 7 are going to be very low. 2578 with 2 draws to go, the odds of making an 8 are going to be significantly higher. 87 is good enough to win enough of the time to draw towards it.

When I wrote that I thought it was full ring. My mistake, was awake for 36 hours...

That shouldn't make too much of a difference. Are people folding stuff like 852 and 642 to a CO raise just because it's full ring? In my games (mostly $0.50/$1) people will call with 764 and 873.

Does TD ever plays full ring? Thought it was always 6-max.

lol^

Full ring Triple Draw = 6 players

Simple way of looking at it.

Galts Motor (v70) - Deuce (2 Draws)
20000 sims in 5.8 seconds

BB - Equity: 40.9%
Range: 752

SB - Equity: 59.1%
Range: 8752

Haha, thanks! Certainly not the last time I look like a fool.

Well not really. Think it's too simplistic because there's some chance we are already drawing dead, and our Reverse implied odds can be/are pretty bad if we keep the 8, so it doesnt truly reflect those above odds. 752 Implied odds also better if we hit.

Even when drawing dead a good amount 8752 has an equity edge, even in the scenario most heavily weighted in 752s favor imaginable.

Galts Motor (v70) - Deuce (2 Draws)
20000 sims in 5.9 seconds

BB - Equity: 68.5%
Range: 86432 (21%), 7432 (71%), 87652 ( 7%)
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98

SB - Equity: 31.5%
Range: 8752
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98


Galts Motor (v70) - Deuce (2 Draws)
20000 sims in 5.9 seconds
Dead Cards: 8

BB - Equity: 72.1%
Range: 86432 (20%), 7432 (80%)
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98

SB - Equity: 27.9%
Range: 752
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98

And though 752 makes it up some in impiied odds, it's raw equity is harder to achieve. it's too easy to get snowed if you brick next street so even the 27% equity is misleading.

Here's the effects of 752 folding to 1 draws/pat hands if unimproved, but it is still underestimating effect since Galts doesn't ever have players snow.

Galts Motor (v70) - Deuce (2 Draws)
20000 sims in 6.1 seconds
Dead Cards: 8

BB - Equity: 73.5%
Range: 86432 (25%), 7432 (75%)
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98

SB - Equity: 26.5%
Range: 752
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98 Fold vs: Pat

Another way to look at it, if you toss this 8 there are only 3 left. Are you really planning to make a 7 drawing 2 over only 2 draws?

Galts Motor (v70) - Deuce (2 Draws)
20000 sims in 4.8 seconds
Dead Cards: 8

BB - Equity: 90.9%
Range: 76542
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98

SB - Equity: 9.1%
Range: 752
Flop - Pat: 98 Break: 98 Fold vs: 1 Draw

Or if you make a 9, what do you do? Always break if draw left, and check/fold if not? That seems problematic, and if you pat/call isn't your RIO even worse?