Hi again,

before i start playing poker i just look around at the games and 27TD looked really soft to beat, so i did some math and i am testing the game for weak or two.

The issue i want to discus with you are winrates. I red a thread here at 2+2, where is suggestion that normal winrates are 1BB/100. What is your opinion? Here are my stats so far. Small sample size, but at least something to discus about:

I don't know what site you play on but when I played 2-7 on full tilt right before black friday, I found there was a large difference in competency of my opponents between .25/.5 and .5/1. And at 1/2 to 2/4 were mostly regs with usually 1 spot at the table (other than me lol). I wasn't utilizing a HUD and much of your winratte at low stakes will depend on rake structure. Definately expect your 1/2 winrate to drop. I'd say a very good player whom is well aware of his opponent's tendencies and adjusts well to newcomers and/or fish can win 3bb/100 at that level. Hope this helps.

You're probably running a little good (even your 1/2 sample size is way too small), but winrates at 1/2 or less can definitely be sustainable for more than 1BB/100.

For 3500 hands, this would be the 95% Win Rate Confidence interval for someone with a true winrate of 2BB/100 and an SD of 20BB/100: -4.76BB/100 to 8.76BB/100

It's all about how good your game selection is, and how much/little you're willing to play.

Variance in this game is high - I think your hands need to be well into 5 figures before you have even the slightest clue.

By comparison my win rates are:
25/50c: 4.5 BB/100 (10100 hands)
50c/$1: -2.3 BB/100 (6200 hands)
$1/$2: 3.3 BB/100 (3700 hands).

The other problem is you can't get that much volume (you can't exactly 6-table TD even if there are 6 tables running) and by the time you've played enough hands to get an accurate idea of your true win rate, it's not that accurate any more because your play and your opponents will have changed significantly.

In need of a +1, spot on IMO.

This statement may be even more true since BF. I feel like there are less "regs" at low limit TD now whenever I look at the table lists. Is the action more consistent in the European evenings?

you are on a heater for 6BB/100 for sure

ive run @ 5BB/100 for 10k hands @ 3/6 and that is not my winrate

What program tracks 27 td?