Alternate hypothesis on Bayley: she really was good when this board was saying that she was, but upon call-up she immediately got thrown in with New Day for an episode or two, and it was the kiss of death. She contracted incurable AIDS from that unicorn horn.
I don't know why "I'm happy to be here and like to hug people" not getting over on the main roster is a surprise. That was never a gimmick that had star potential at this level. In NXT, it was the same intimate crowd coming to see her every week.