Seems like a solid lineup. Good luck.

i'd swap orton and CJ
I think you'll get better results spending 15k at QB and 8k at WR.

good point, probably like Rivers and Gaffney.. Im a huge Lions fan and can tell everybody Gates has sick value at only 11k this week he will blow up against us

Will the best fantasy bettors be running player simulations through computer models like sports bettors?

i hope so, **** simulations

For those of you playing multiple leagues per week, are you using the same lineup in each league or switching up lineups?
It seems to me that most EV would be playing the same lineup.
If you have two lineups, one must be better than the other, its just a matter of which one. Obviously this does not apply to snake drafts.

I guess the other option would be if you have certain players you are damn sure are locks, say 2-3 players. Then you could take these 2-3 in a couple of different leagues and switch up the other positions.

say you have 1 RB 1 WR 1 TE you think are huge values and must plays. But on the other hand, you think rodgers, brady, brees are pretty even in value. Enter three leagues, in all 3 take your 1 RB 1 WR 1 TE, then take rodgers in one, brady in one, brees in one. kind of hedges your must play locks against a QB having a bad week if you took one for every league.
Just like some thoughts here...

Seems like most people just rotate in small pieces.

e.g.

Lineup 1:

Brees
Foster
MJD
Cruz
Colston

Lineup 2:

Brees
Peterson
Foster
Nicks
Jennings

I think it varies though on the size of the game. For the big guarantees, there is probably a bit more variation.

Alright screw it, its the end of the season, I'm going to lay out my general strategy.

Obviously the name of the game is value and your job is to find players that have the greatest chance of exceeding their price. Something that can work is picking players who are getting a larger workload due to an injury from a starter (think Felix Jones last week), or players who didn't do much early in the season but are now on a hot streak (think Victor Cruz or Percy Harvin before the price caught up to them). Obviously you need to be paying close attention to the NFL to know these things. A players price is all-important. Even though Rogers is great, he has gotten too expensive imo.

When actually selecting the lineup, I go in a methodical order. First, I like to pick DEF and kicker, usually going really cheap here looking for good matchups. Then I like to pick QB, usually either picking one of the top guys or going cheap again, trying to find a great value play. After this I pick TE, usually picking one of the top 6 guys. Lower-end TEs are too much of a crapshoot imo. After this you can look at the "average price remaining" and play off of this to select your 2 RB and 3 WR. For RB I normally like at least one elite guy who catches a lot of passes and has a good mathcup (Foster, Rice, MJD, McCoy) and another guy who will get a large workload whose price I think is too low for some reason (see first paragraph). I don't like to reach for lower-end RBs, they are too likely to put up a really low number imo. Regarding WRs, I usually like one elite-ish guy, one medium-range guy whose price is too low (like Cruz and Harvin the past few weeks), and then some lower-end guy who is on a hot streak (like Demariuys Thomas). For WRs I value consistency and how many passes they catch. For example, I wont select Steve Smith or even Megatron for that matter due to their inconsistency and lack of value for PPR.

The other thing that you probably know intuitively from poker is that you need to change your lineup based on the game you are playing. For example, I like to play the double-up games where 50% of the field gets paid and I pretty much choose the highest expected value lineup possible, but if you are playing the other games where the payouts are top-heavy you should maximize your variance by choosing high risk/high reward players since your upside helps you more than your downside hurts you.

good post Biester, another important thing with DraftDay, is that QB passing TD's are worth 6 instead of 4 (the industry standard) which is very important in my opinion. I always scrape the bottom of the barrel for QBs in fantasy drafts getting one in the later rounds, have never taken a Rodgers, Manning, Brady type guy. But with 6 points for a TD instead of 4 it really changes the value of an elite QB.. on the other hand Rodgers at 22k - 24k is crazy

Yeah I mean getting bad production from your QB can really ruin you which why I usually lean toward the consistently good Brees of the world, but as I said, if there is a compelling value play I wont pass it up since it will save so much money you can put to work in the RB/WR slots.

I just basically go entirely on matchups on the assumption that they aren't accounted for in the prices. Is this wrong?

no i think this is basically the point.. i nearly got burned tho taking grossman vs the vikings.. and i know a few got burned taking yates vs carolina

my usual strat is spend the most on running backs, even the best receivers are not consistent. Instead of picking an "elite" defense i look for a good defense playing against a terrible offense or one with key injuries (Indy or arizona)

Curious as to whether others try and spend all the way up to the cap or are willing to leave some money on the table if they like their lineup for the particular game they are playing. Say you are playing in the $5 frenzy (and you are super happy at every other position), and you really like Lance Moore for $8,250. However, you have justtt enough ($$8,750) to get Santonio Holmes at $8,740, who you also like in that price range. I feel like I always go with Holmes in this spot, even though I (hypothetically) like Moore more, because I feel bad about leaving money on the table. Like, if I set my lineup and somehow left >$1000 I'd level myself into making a lineup I like less because something must be wrong if I'm not getting super close to the cap.