Is it possible anymore for players to make a middle-class or better income playing poker solely in brick & mortar casinos?

If so, what locations and games/stakes is this occurring at and is it the norm or more on the rare side?

Sure, it's possible. It's also possible to make a middle-class living off of being a musician.

1. Basically it comes down to how good you really are. People generally overestimate their abilities.

2. Some people make a LOT of money. These are the exceptions rather than the rule. For every Jay Z, there are hundreds of people putting together a modest living and thousands of people who tried and failed.

3. Recreational play does not scale up to pro play. Sure, you may be the best poker player at your local 1/2 NL or 6/12 LHE or the best guitarist in your town. That's a really long way from "making it."

4. Poker winnings are worth less than equivalent salary. It's called Certainty Equivalent, or the amount of guaranteed money you'd be equally happy in taking in lieu of gambling for more. Mathemativally, CE is about half of EV.

2/5 NL and 15/30 LHE is big enough to support a meh living. You probably want 5/10 NL or 40/80 LHE for any sort of middle class living, with the option of a 10/20 NL or 100/200-ish LHE game consistently running in order to be comeptitive with a typical college graduate desk job.

In my room, we have about 2000 recurring customers. Probably 200 of them would really be "regulars" as in they visit us 8+ times a month.

Of those, we probably have 40 or so who are trying to make a living off of this game. I'd say three of them might succeed in making $30K+ a year. Maybe. I have access to the records and despite what people might say, NOBODY had more than $20K in profit at my place last year.

Now, my room is tournament-only and has a ridiculously modest rake, so those are considerations. I suppose it might be possible playing bigger stakes cash games with a reasonable rake. But I tell you what, as a poker room manager, nothing makes me sadder than one of my regulars qutting their job to "go pro" as 95% of the time that means I will be losing a good customer in a few months.

There's a huge difference between "can you" and "will you." It is certainly possible to earn $80k to $100k/yr playing 2/5. However, you need to play at the very top of the game at that level. Beyond that, it is so easy to fall into other traps that will cost you money, the least of which is that when you are a winning player, poker is the most boring way to earn money on the planet. If it is at all appealing to you, you are going to gamble and lose money. The most telling statistic is from Michael Craig's book on the big game. The only three players that were regulars in the big game at the Mirage in the late 1980s that were still there in the late 1990s when it moved to the Bellagio were Doyle Brunson, Chip Reese and David Grey.

Even for Doyle, his wife provided the stability of successfully running businesses. Doyle readily admits that he blew through lots of money on stupid investments.

I work 3 jobs. it's better than to be depending on Cards. (words of advice)

Anything's "possible". But, it's not very probable for most.

More on the rare side, like a nice and thick juicy ribeye.

The last part is very interesting. Can you please link me to the mathematical explanation?

I always thought CE was highly dependant on your personal circumstances. For example, person A who is 21, single, lives in his own house and runs under his parents health insurance compared to person B who has to pay rent, has to provide for 3 small children and has a medical condition that requires him to get some medicine each month that is not covered by his insurance.

"Middle class" is also highly dependant on where you live.

Even if you ignore mental benefits of a dependable source of income, employer paid benefits typically run 1/4 to 1/3 of someone salary. So you will need to make much more at poker (or commit tax fraud) to have a similar lifestyle.

That's interesting. Would you mind sharing what region/state you're in if you don't mind? You don't have to be super specific if you can't (feel free to ignore this completely if you don't wish to get that specific), but I was just curious about regions.

My general assumption is that:

a.) Being in an overly small region will make it tough to make a decent living (not enough games or limits for people in those places).
b.) Being in an overly crowded region (Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Atlantic City) would bring greater prospects, but at the expense of greater competition as well (since everyone would want to be there).

The math itself is beyond me - it's posted on the bjmath forums, and I think I first read about it in Don Schlessinger's Blackjack Attack.

The principle is that you want your bankroll to grow the most over time. Your expenses are modeled as a zero-variance loss rate.

If your loss rate has variance, you can add it in to the variance to lump it together.

I understand that. I was just under the impression the CE was highly dependant on the fact that some people don't need any money to live and others will die if they don't make amount x over the time frame y.

It is. It just shows up in an indirect way.

This is open to different opinions. I'd never trade in my poker life for a college graduate desk job of even 150% of what I make. 200% is about where I'd have to start thinking about it.

Many of my friends have those jobs and make more than me. I have so much more flexibility in day to day life. To me it's worth it. I go to sleep when I want, I wake up when I want, I work when I want, I take a day off when I want, I take a month off when I want, I go travelling for a year when I want. I could go on and on. I shave when I want and wear my hair how I want. I do recreational drugs when I want. I travel to whatever climate I want to be in, and I travel about half the year just because I like to, and I can play either online poker or live poker just about anywhere and I like to play both and mix it up. I have no boss. I have no jerk clients. When the powder is good I snowboard. When the sun is out I hike in the mountains or go to the beach. I'm not stuck working when I'd rather be doing something else, ever. I never know what tomorrow will bring and I like it that way. And while I may average X $ per month, there is always a chance any week that I'll finally bink a big MTT (I never have) or a JP (I never have) and all of sudden have a years money or more in one day.

CE vs EV is only part of the equation.

I agree with your broader point, which is that CE or EV doesn't include intangibles. Ultimately, people maximize on Utility, not CE, and not EV. Your personal utility can include schedules or religion or personal relationships.

But the "CE vs EV" argument has nothing to do with that. It's about straight money. And while you are free to add any intangibles you wish, the mahematical equivalent of $100,000 poker winnings is less than $100,000 salary. Your freedom may be worth the difference, but to argue you're making more money than your peers would be incorrect.

Ok I get it.

I quit my 80k/yr job working 40-55 hrs a week to make 35k/ yr with more flexibility in my schedule... Although I do miss the money, nothing can replace time and freedom in life

it is.

the mathematical explanation has to do with utility function (imagine a function where money is on the x-axis and the value of that money is on the y-axis)

both player's have concave utility functions, but person a's utility is more concave (especially towards the left side)--variance is more damaging to him.

another way to look at it: suppose your employer said they'd give you a raise, but only if you were willing to flip a coin for $50,000 at the end of the year. how big would that raise have to be for you to accept?

true, but games tend to be bigger in pricier areas

F***ING BRILLIANT! If you don't know it already, you are a GENIUS!

This is also open to different opinions. A lot of the people who embrace the philosophy you just mentioned have a definition of "go to sleep when I want" that equates to being up until 7am, sleeping until 5pm and being zombie-like when they're awake.

I doubt many people attempting to play 1/2 NL or 2/5 NL for a living can "take a month off" whenever they want, nor can they or do they travel as much as you do.

The "jerk clients" line is a cop-out. For starters, regular work does not involve constant involvement with terrible co-workers or clients that you hate, like some sitcom would suggest. And I don't think living life in isolation at a card table because you're in constant fear of interacting with people you might not like isn't the healthiest life choice IMO.

I think I meet quite interesting people at the poker table. Especially when in Vegas, meeting people from all over the world. I'm relatively social at the table and generally never play if I'm not having a good time. People tend to like me. I definitely don't feel "in isolation" And when I play online, I get to be with my dog, and my girlfriend will frequently bring me food or drinks while I play.

Right now I'm playing online from a Hostel in Chile. I was at Lollapalooza all day. Life is ***** good.

True though, I don't play just brick and mortar I guess. If I did and I lived in a few select locations I'm sure I could pull it off. But having online to supplement sure does help. I play about 75/25 online/live but the live has been increasing.