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Originally Posted by lawdude
We don't determine truth through uncontrolled personal observation. We use math, and scientific rigor, and methodologies that weed confirmation biases and post hoc fallacies out of the process.
You are a very analytical and math-minded person. I respect that, as I am, too. I minored in math in college, even. I'm there with you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
Poker, specifically, is a mathematical game
This is only one part of the equation. Poker is also a psychological game. And at the higher limits, it's a game of networking (which could be seen as part of the psychology). Somebody who only looks at the math is leaving money on the table.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
You see what you want to see. That doesn't mean it is true. It just means it is what you believe to be true. But any person at a poker table who goes into the game believing that this is what fish do will interpret any fish leaving in that manner.
Yes, confirmation bias does exist. And I do have a vested interest in games staying active. Over many years, I've gotten pretty good at guessing which tables will have more action, which tables will tip better, and which tables will break the soonest. Contributing to that is more than a few instances of people actually complaining about strat talk at the table, and picking up chips and leaving, citing that as the reason.
No, I do not have an air-tight study on this. But I do have my observations, as well as the observations of many who have been where I have, as well as the observations of many winning players. At some point you just need to step back and say, "Y'know, maybe there is something to this. At the very least, I'm not going to reject it out-of-hand."
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
Further, have you considered that some fish may stay because they like strat talk and like to beat the "experts" with "bad" hands? You don't talk to those people, because you don't notice them. They just stay in the games and play.
Sure, some of this exists. I've never said it doesn't. All I'm saying is that I see a variety of table temperatures throughout the day, and I have opinions about what tends to break a table.
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Originally Posted by lawdude
You haven't done a controlled study.
Nor have you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
But you don't care about data-- you have a bias, you some data that you think confirms it, and that's the end of the matter for you.
FFS, this is not a scientific study. This is an observation, borne out through years of seeing it play out time and time again. I'm not claiming anything is 100% one direction or another. Stop making it so rigid, and stop being so insufferable about it. You're a smart dude, this much is clear. So why can't you step back and see?