Hi, I'm a former internet low stakes NLHE MTT grinder. I was only able to play for about 10 months before Black Friday, but during this time I grinded my bankroll from $37 to around $12000, playing about 20 hours a week. My hourly was around low 20s when Black Friday hit and I was still improving. I believed then and believe now I have the skill to succeed at higher stakes both online and live. Being an American, it seems my only real choices are live play.
For various reasons I'd rather not go into, I don't do well in traditional 9 to 5 day jobs. I love playing poker and improving my game and would have moved to Vegas right after Black Friday if my (ex)-wife would have let me. Now I'm finally sufficiently bankrolled and have no one to stop me. I also have degrees in mathematics and computer science as well as some industry certifications that I can fall back on in the unlikely event I bust out. And yeah, theoretically I could make a lot more money with a tech job but, thinking about having such a job 9 to 5 makes me want to pound my head into a wall until I'm unconscious. So, moving on...
I have read all the older threads about moving to Vegas, but since this is a major life decision and many things are changing in Vegas recently (e.g. parking) I feel warranted me asking about SF vs. Vegas myself, and I thank you in advance for advising me.
Anyway, I have saved roughly $24,000 for estimated yearly living expenses, and about $11000 saved (separate from the 24000) for my bankroll.
Now, I did a lot of initial research about number of card rooms, rake formats, and limits spread in Vegas, LA, and South Florida casinos that led me to form a few conclusions. Please correct me if these conclusions are inaccurate.
- South Florida probably has the softest games at 1/2 and probably okay 2/5
- South Florida has higher cost of living than Vegas but lower than LA.
- Las Vegas probably has the softest games for 2/5 and maybe 5/10
- Las Vegas has much better opportunities for game selection than SF, even if low stakes games on average are tougher, due to the high concentration of casinos.
- Los Angeles 1/2 and 2/5 games are unbeatable due to rake structures.
- Los Angeles is the place to be for anything 10/20 or higher and maybe 5/10
- I am currently rolled to play 1/2 and 1/3 only, but may be able to move up to 2/5 in about a year, and 5/10 likely taking several years. Therefore LA is out for the moment unless I'm overlooking something.
Given my bankroll and cost of living constraints, LA seems out of the picture. And although I've read the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale low stakes games are incredibly soft, I am concerned about upward mobility there. I think there is only one casino in the area that regularly spreads 5/10, so it is probably filled with regs, making the ceiling in this area likely 2/5. I am guessing 2/5 in SF and Vegas are comparable. Players may tend to be worse in SF, but there are far fewer 2/5 games running. I am still inclined to believe that Las Vegas has the best opportunities for a starting player who wants to move up quickly. It seems likely if I moved to SF I would need to move again to Vegas or LA within a few years, and I hate moving, especially cross-country. The distances of the SF casinos also concerns me. Likely I would end up with easy driving access to 2, maybe 3 casinos.
On the other hand, the impression I get from reading here and elsewhere is that Vegas is going downhill. I was particularly dismayed by the decision to charge parking and MGM deciding again to raise parking even more. I'm unclear as to whether locals have to pay parking, but assuming I do, and I'm playing 40 hours a week, 5 to 6 days a week, we're talking 3k to 5k just for parking, which seems insane.
So what do you guys think about Vegas vs. SF? Have I overlooked LA?
Also, I've been planning on playing cash games but truthfully am probably a better tournament player. My concern here is the variance for tournaments I can afford is probably too high. What level tournament could I afford with my bankroll, and what would be a reasonable expected hourly of such tournaments?
I'd also love to hear opinions about the best parts (cities, neighborhoods) of SF. Already asked a similar question for Vegas. I am single with no children, so I don't care about school quality. Minor property crime is not a large concern for me, but I don't want to live anywhere dangerous. Most important to me are the following:
- Access to Casinos - I'd like several within a 30ish minute drive if possible.
- Access to Casinos at Night (11PM - 6AM) as I am a night owl and also consider these prime hours assuming there is enough traffic.
- Neighborhood Livability - Affordable but decent housing, access to quality groceries like Whole Foods, etc.
- Being safe from violent crime
- Being safe from property crimes
- I don't care about going to the beach or clubbing at all.
- I don't care about how good looking the women are, or the men for that matter. Dating is not a priority right now.
Any advice is appreciated, but especially comparisons from those who've lived in Vegas and SF and accounts of what stakes you played and how they have varied from location to location. How comparable are rakes, winrates, game selection, etc.? My main concern in SF aside from cost of living is that 5/10 games are rare and I might have to move again after a couple years to LA, a gazillion mile move.
I know I've brought up a lot of points that have been raised before. For anyone who read this far or intends to respond, I really appreciate it. This is a very important life decision for me and I need to get it right.
Thanks