Quote:
Originally Posted by offTopic
Can't believe this post is almost two years old...they're doing the same thing (I believe the start date is 3/13) because the reserve is now closing in on $1M.
If anyone needs proof that casinos don't understand math any better than the typical sucker, that big of a reserve is it. The caps on the BBJ are unreasonable for how restrictive the 8888+ rule is.
2222+ gets beaten about once every 100k hands if everyone plays everything and sees the river always. If you assume people VPIP 30% and that captures 50% of the BBJ equity, and partially offset that with a 25% house rake, the cap for the BBJ should be in the $100-$150k range. Anything smaller cap (or a smaller rake) will in the long run build an infinite reserve.
Even with a 25% edge, the long run on the BBJ is super ****ing long. N0 easily runs into the millions of hands - that is, over the course of 10-20 BBJs, it's possible the casino still loses money. And eventually, this happens and some suit gets the bright idea to raise the bar for payout.
8888+ is about half as likely to hit. Which means the cap should be raised to double (or else the reserve naturally trends upward). But it's not. Which is why after the casino takes a few hits, they overcompensate and end up with these gross jackpots.
If any of the casino bean counters is reading this, or any of you are banging one, point this out. 2222+ cap should be $100-150k, 8888+ should be $200-300k, depending on how much the vig is and how tight people usually play. Doubling the jackpot at certain hours only exacerbates the variance problem - the casino ends up stretching out those breakeven stretches if a few jackpots hit during double hours.