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Old 06-14-2012, 01:41 AM   #1
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wsop 5th st razz spot

i think this was 75/150/25 level although it may have been 100/200/25.

I don't even remember my exact hand or dead cards but it went something like this.

Samenole who has been limping a lot limps a 7...i raise 456 guy to my left with 3 calls. (i played with him a lot last year on day 2, he plays a lot of the razz wsop tourneys so and he's decent). I don't know much about how light he peels at the time.

4th

me-4568
samenole - xx77
guy - xx34

guy leads, samenole calls expectedly and i raise. guy calls and samenole calls.

5th
me-4568Q
guy-345
samenole-xx772

guy bets samenole calls and i dont know wtf to do. I really cant put this guy on a strong hand with his play on 3rd and 4th but his board is damn good and now for all i know i'm in 3rd place with samenole drawing to a 7 and my rough 8 having a lot of outs dead.
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Old 06-14-2012, 02:06 AM   #2
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

Well here are a few assumptions I would make:

1. Samenole - Has two cards 8 or better down. If he is a thinking player in the least he shouldn't be getting to 5th street if this weren't the case (he has to assume that he is in the middle of two very strong hands and might have to call several bets to see 5th)

2. Guy - Has at least one very strong card (I would assume at least an ace or a two) in the hole. For the sake of looking at the best case scenario for your hand let's assume that he doesn't have two

Here is what came up when I ran the simulation

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
4568Q25.25% 151,101781
(2- K 3)4552.05% 311,6391,286
(8- 8- 7)7222.70% 135,918618

However if "Guy" was in the pot on 3rd street with a 3 card hand (very likely) then you are in an awful situation

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
4568Q15.96% 93,7094,091
(8- 8- 3)4570.35% 419,7554,681
(8- 8- 7)7213.69% 81,808685
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Old 06-14-2012, 06:44 AM   #3
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

I won't comment on specific tendencies, but (if these are actually your cards) your problem is that with two sevens dead you're not winding up with a seven at the end of this hand.

You're gonna close the betting the large majority of the time so peeling is pretty tempting, but I'd still fold.
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Old 06-14-2012, 07:01 AM   #4
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

lol @ samenole being decent
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Old 06-14-2012, 09:36 AM   #5
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar View Post
I won't comment on specific tendencies, but (if these are actually your cards) your problem is that with two sevens dead you're not winding up with a seven at the end of this hand.

You're gonna close the betting the large majority of the time so peeling is pretty tempting, but I'd still fold.
i definitely had a rough 8, and i think these were my other 3 cards. Closing the action was real tempting to peel but i just imagined more awful spots nad not good RIO on later streets so I did indeed fold.

When it got to SD i saw i was drawing better than thought so i was kicking myself but given the info i had at the time i think i made a decent laydown.
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Old 06-14-2012, 11:12 AM   #6
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipsAhoya View Post
lol @ samenole being decent
I dunno, seems like he's a lot better than he was 5 years ago. I wouldn't kick yourself for folding camz, it's a marginal spot at best and if the 3rd guy is ever slowplaying 3rd and 4th you're in a heap of it. Given the fact it's so early in the tourney I think there's value in taking randoms to showdown, but samenole will probly do the job for you here.
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Old 06-14-2012, 01:00 PM   #7
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

Given the dead cards, unless you think samenole def has an 8 in his range a lot here, this seems like a good fold in a MTT to me. Your 34 obv make it less likely guy paired as well. Not a great spot, so I'd save those big bets. Seems like a big price to pay for info, SG.
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Old 06-17-2012, 07:53 PM   #8
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

call, hit ace, profit.
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Old 06-21-2012, 04:56 AM   #9
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

marginal spot where other dead cards, reads, and stack sizes sway the decision. if remaining As, 2s and 3s are live AND 345 bets 100% when paired AND hero has healthy stack (taking away ICM considerations), then I probably peel and call down improved.
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Old 06-21-2012, 04:59 AM   #10
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

Also if 345 was decently aggro and had 3bet 3rd in previous hands, makes calling a bit easier as you can probably put him on an 8 or 9 if unpaired.
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:00 AM   #11
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Re: wsop 5th st razz spot

Folding is never a big mistake tho imo
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