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Old 06-15-2012, 09:46 PM   #1
centurion
 
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Thoughts on 3-flushes in 7CS

Disclaimer: Feel free to call me a moron if I am way off base here.

Would it be accurate to say that a 3-flush is weaker in some sense when you are up against a full table compared to, say, playing 5-handed?

My thoughts are that even if you don't see your suit on other upcards, there are 14 downcards dealt to your opponents that might contain 1 or more of your suit.

I know it is possible that none of your cards are in the upcard, but it seems like there is a higher probability of your desired suit being given to others face-down when you have more players.

Of course this is not the only factor to consider, since at a bigger table you are more likely to have a multi-way pot with a 3-flush, which can often be ideal for that type of hand. Another thing that works against my theory is that all types of cards are more likely to be dealt, which could be just as bad for your opponents, so maybe it is a wash.

But the question is (if both of my assumptions are true, and feel free to dispute me), which effect dominates the other in terms of how strong we should view a 3-flush starting hand to be if we are playing at a full table?

I honestly have no clue, any thoughts?

P.S. I guess all of this would apply to 3-card straights or any sort of drawing hand.
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Old 06-15-2012, 10:31 PM   #2
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Re: Thoughts on 3-flushes in 7CS

Quote:
Originally Posted by tuds38 View Post
Disclaimer: Feel free to call me a moron if I am way off base here.
You're a moron.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tuds38 View Post
My thoughts are that even if you don't see your suit on other upcards, there are 14 downcards dealt to your opponents that might contain 1 or more of your suit.
Yes, with more players at the table, more of the cards you want are likely to be in other people's hands, among their downcards. But a commensurately larger number of the cards you don't want are also likely to be among other players' downcards. So the effect you're discussing is irrelevant.

After you account for the influence of the visible upcards, your chances of making a flush will be no different at a 2-player table or at a 7-player table.

Oh, and I was just kidding about the 'moron' part.
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Old 06-15-2012, 10:38 PM   #3
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Re: Thoughts on 3-flushes in 7CS

Oh, and as for the other part of your question, I think you'd much rather have the 3-flush at a bigger table. A low disconnected 3-flush is a pretty big underdog to a big pair, so it's usually a loser in a heads up pot. You'd normally only want it in a multiway pot, which seems more likely at a bigger table.
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Old 06-16-2012, 12:39 AM   #4
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Re: Thoughts on 3-flushes in 7CS

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So the effect you're discussing is irrelevant.
Because you'll still be getting a completely random draw of cards from the deck as long as the other down-cards are still unknown. Yeah I get it now.

After hearing about that that damn "Let's Make a Deal" problem I tend to overthink things.
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Old 06-16-2012, 01:56 AM   #5
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Re: Thoughts on 3-flushes in 7CS

The most dominating factors (beyond how live your flush cards are) are:
  1. Can you make straight?
  2. Can you make two pairs?
  3. Can you make high pairs?

The more you can say yes to the above questions, the 'stronger' your 3-flush is.
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Old 06-16-2012, 02:49 AM   #6
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Re: Thoughts on 3-flushes in 7CS

Generally a low disconnected 3 card flush is unplayable at a tight table (on average 3 players to 4th and typically HU from 5th on). It can be played for 1 bet but should be quickly discarded if it doesn't improve. A low connected (straight, one gapper, etc...) can be played more frequently and to a later street. As for 3 card flushes that can develop into big pairs and two pairs those can be played fairly aggressively.

In a loose game where 4-6 people get to 5th street and 3-4 people get to the river pretty much any 3 card flush is playable.
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