40-80 Stud8 -8 handed- $10 ante/$10 bring-in:

Reads:

1) Although I do not remember the exact dead cards, I believe Aces were live and there was a mix of hi and low cards dead.

2) Villain is a solid, winning player.

3rd Street: Villain completes MP with a 4s, I defend the bring-in with (A7)2r. i think that there may have been 2 other higher low cards behind Villain.

4th street: I catch a Ks, Villain catches a Qh. I check, Villain bets, I call.

5th street: I catch a Qs, Villain catches a 2c. I check, Villain bets...

(A27)KQ vs. (xx)4Q2

My question is what is the worst type of 3 to a low hand, if any, you would call here. Are you calling A56JT 3flush? If Villains board were 7Q8 and you had A45KJ would that change your decision drastically because 4s and 5s aren't as likely good for high anymore? Etc, etc, etc.

I feel a lot of strong players snap fold in this spot but when I run a sim on ProPokerTools with two random low hands I appear to have 42.42% equity and I have 31.8% equity against a pocket pair or trips. In this exact scenario I feel Villain is weighted more toward three to a low to start or split 4s so I will estimate that I have roughly 38% equity (I also know I could create a more exact range for Villain but I am not amazing with ProPokerTools).

{$L$L 4Q}2 57.58%
A72KQ 42.42%

AA-22 | 4sQh2c 68.20%
A27KQ 31.80%

Note: I'm getting 4:1 on a call here

i'd still call. i expect villain to c/ back 6th at a pretty high frequency even if he picks up good with a pair+4 lo. i'm still learning this game tho, so my advice is likely ****.

Auto fold 5th street IMO. I put villain on a range of 44A -234- 456-346 etc. On 4th street I would test him by raising, you called, so the choice on 5th street is either raise or fold. Raising on 5th would get him to release a pair, but not 4 card low. But as played you whiffed 4th street, why get tricky and send good money after bad on the later streets. Yes he may be bluffing on 4th but you are still guessing the rest of the way. Steve is the man why call 5th? So V checks back 6th...whoopee! Your showdown value is Ace high. Terrible play, its a raise on 5th, so if you catch scary on 6th you can semi bluff and get either a crying call, and bet river again to get small pair to fold. Just my opinion.

Thank you for responses so far. Yes I am leaning toward folding 5th in short handed, lower ante games but in full ring, high ante I think its close.

you stated you have 38% equity and there's 3 bets in the pot on 5th...

assuming villain pots it and the game ends on 5th. should you call?

also, where is this game?

wow

So you're HU against a strong opponent with a clearly inferior hand with no real scoop cards on Sixth while the pot is still relatively small...

I know what I would do here.

Also, you're likely going to be out of position on Sixth unless your opponent catches an Ace or pairs up...

i guess the shortcut i used is kinda bad since hero is going to be winning smaller pots while losing bigger pots naturally.

let's assume worst case scenario:

hero wins 38% of the time where he invests 2 bets to win a 7 BB pot, and
hero loses 62% of the time where he invests 3 bets.

(0.38 * (7 - 2)) - (0.62 * 3) = 0.04

It seems like 38% happens to be the breakeven point with this method. Also I think this method is too conservative, so the real breakeven point is somewhere between 33% and 38% equity.

This is just a typical poker spot. I guess it is harder to play defensively when ur under 40% equity with 3 big streets left.

There are times where villain checks back the best hand on 6th (we gain).
There's also times we brick and villain binks. 6th is an easy fold since our equity is <20%.
There are also times we bink and villain bricks.

I guess the hardest spot to play is when both sides bink. I probably will showdown ace high UI against many low boards.

Here is a decently wide-range for your opponent: any pair plus any two low that includes any pair plus ANY three suited (might be a bit wide):

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
22-AA, LL, *s*s, 4sQ2	63.15%	320,548	393,302	140	85,841	132
A72KQ	36.85%	162,745	206,558	140	83,852	132

So effectively you are good to call. It's a bit late for me and I've had some wine, but figure out what you make implicitly and that's where it's at. It's close.

theres 1275 combos on 3rd

$L$L makes up 465 (336 are distinct)
*s[9s-ks] makes up 45
4[9-K] makes up another 60
99-KK makes up the last 30

by 5th, $L$L 42q consists of more non-pairs than pairs. also if villain opens a tight range, their range is now deuce heavy or ace heavy (we aren't afraid of an ace since we have K kicker...)

the only hands ur drawing thin against are sets, KK, and AA.
ur 34% vs. jj
36% vs. an open ender,
36% vs. 4 + bd low draw,
38% vs. an ace + gutshot,
39% vs. 2 + bd low draw (common)
41% vs. 4 w/o bd low draw,
43% vs. low draw + ace (common),
46% vs. a razz hand (most common)

Anyways, just run numbers and play accordingly on 6th. if you suck at 6th then folding 5th is fine.

the breakeven point against a villain who can handread/never miss value IMO is still somewhere in the 33-38% margin.

im hoping someone proves me wrong or right. or correct me if i arrived at the right answer but using the wrong methods.

Great math Tiger! I'm a bit on the nittier side with not a lot of higher limit experience, but sometimes I think that players over think marginal hands and go to levels that are not realistic, but your breakdown of the hand brings realistic views on how to continue in hands where I may auto fold, but it seems like folding in this particular hand is a great option instead of being out of position for the rest of the hand and educated guessing my chips away.

Thanks again for responses. The game was part of a mix at borgata. I like your point when arguing if villain could hypothetically pot it on 5th. You would technically be getting 2:1 but this is obviously a fold in this spot.

Given more the more precise ranges listed above I still would find a call on 5th as well. People argue that you could be "educated guessing" your chips away being out of position but the pot odds seem to dictate that this strategy, while uncomfortable, may be the best play. From a look at villains perspective I feel like there are many times when I am in his position and am mad when weaker players decide to peel in this spot and we end up chopping the pot quite a fair % of the time. I know that when I am in villains spot with even 4 to a straight I am rooting for my opponent to fold 5th here.

I usually bet fourth here.

How does this mean you are good to call? Sure you aren't that bad if you were allin at this point, but your hand doesn't play well. You have 3 high cards and runner runner 7 low draw.

Interesting and good thread. I think our equity assessment of 36-38% is pretty good and with the pot odds due to high ante structure it appears we have too much overlay to fold. Even though had I been playing this hand in the moment I'm sure I would have folded. The king kicker is key here. Note I also might have folded with a 3 flush and/or backdoor six low and that would have been a mistake.

I think a key here to understand is that our 5th street call does not mean we are going all the way right? If we catch bad and our opponent catches good I think we should fold on 6th. Think Steve is right in that 6th will get checked through a lot.

Think it's close though and to answer the OP's original question I think this is the worst hand I would go with here. Another hand that was mentioned, the A56JT with a two flush may have more equity even though we are out kicked when our opponent has an ace in hole. But I'm not sure.

This hand made me wonder about how different equity and EV are in split pot games. I'm sure there's some gold in the standard PPT output in manipulating the number of scoops, highs, lows, etc. to eliminate the double counted cases. But in my few half hearted attempts, I couldnt get the numbers to line up. If someone has an easy explanation, please send it my way. In the mean time, I came up with this.


ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Stud Hi/Lo, Generic syntax
Dead - 6d8c
PLAYER_1 Ah7c2dKsQs
PLAYER_2 $L$L,*s[9s-Ks],4[9-K],99-KK/4sQh2c
600000 trials (randomized)


How often do(es)
PLAYER_1 scoop
26.5132% (159079)


How often do(es)
( PLAYER_1 win hi AND (NOT PLAYER_1 scoop))
16.5808% (99485)


How often do(es)
( PLAYER_1 win lo AND (NOT PLAYER_1 scoop))
9.3798% (56279)


How often do(es)
PLAYER_2 scoop
47.4732% (284839)


How often do(es)
( PLAYER_2 win hi AND (NOT PLAYER_2 scoop))
9.3925% (56355)


How often do(es)
( PLAYER_2 win lo AND (NOT PLAYER_2 scoop))
16.5600% (99360)



I took the counts and built a little spreadsheet. I assumed that scoop was a +6, high and low were +1.5 each, and losing was -3. I also assumed that each player's scoop/high/low count subtracted from 600000 was their losses. Hero's weighted outcome was +0.55 BB while Villain's was +2.44 BB.

Clearly there's a bunch of simplicity here. Seems safe to ignore quarters in stud8. We're going to miss bets when scooping fairly often, IMO. I doubt we get free cards even half as often as we give them. That's handwaving though.

So I agree with the equity driven approach that this is close. Any feedback on my work would be most welcome.

I think if one was to do a simulation it would have to incorporate the probability that 6th street came down in a manner that would make us fold and thus have to relinquish our equity. I'm assuming that we all agree that since 5th was close that there are 6th street runouts where we are folding, right?

think folding is right

at minimum, to play perfectly we are going to need to sometimes call river with AK hoping to win half

even if calling is barely defensible from an equity standpoint, villain should be able to play close to perfectly against us, folding has to be at worse a very small mistake, maybe for players better than me calling can be tiny +ev

VS a TAG I never donkbet fifth but rather checkraise if im going to continue this hand to 7th street, but I rather checkraise 4th street if we go that line. You are basically repping a busted low-draw so I expect villain to bet out 100% on fifth when checked too. He could also have a busted flushdraw and his good range cards are pair of 4, rolled up or hidden pairs, and those hands that are beating u, still have enough equity for two of those hands and these are the only good he has, a lot of time (mostly) busted draws or even valuebetting AQ-high.

edit: U need to give info on third street and everyone elses positions. If villain completed UTG in 6-8max then fifth is a fold (maybe even fold third vs a UTG-raise),, if he is last to act before the completor its a different game.

"If it aint good enough to raise it aint good enough to play." - Abraham Lincoln

Yeah I like leading 4th... If he has a random Razz hand we just pulled ahead nicely and it seems we are doing fine against any non-monster. If both brick 5th and you lead again you will usually take it down. I don't see what he can raise 4th with other than Kings or better but now he wtill start to question the weaker parts of his range.

If you both hit wheel cards on 5th you can probably still lead and he might even fold a small pair now, otherwise let the scarier board bet 5th. If he hits 5th and you brick (as happened here), he might be less likely to fire with a lot of low draws / low pairs so you might even get a free card, but probably check-fold.

sorry but what does LL mean in propokertools? I searched the site and couldn't find it. Thanks

I lnow the L stands for Low, and a W stands for Wheel.
W is any card Ace-5. Not sure if L is any Ace-8 or just 6-8, but probably the first.