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06-16-2012, 12:43 PM   #31
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Doesn't have a leg to stand on.
Posts: 7,456
Re: Stud8 Bet on 7th?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kamikaze baby Make that two people! Really really good article.
TYTY. Very happy you guys enjoyed it.

06-16-2012, 02:58 PM   #32
newbie

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: California
Posts: 47
Re: Stud8 Bet on 7th?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kamikaze baby Make that two people! Really really good article. It's actually not at all likely when you consider how dead all of that player's two pair outs are. I probably botched the math, but once we catch the K on 7th, and if I just pretend we knew exactly what villains' hands are up to 6th, I think we have a 43% chance of having the best hand on 7th (I did it really quick but I think QQ villain has 9 outs and AA villain has 11, including any of the three kings, with 29 unknown cards). I'm not a good enough player to be able to make a value bet here on the end, but if we're getting two calls with a 43% chance of being ahead, it's clearly profitable.
Make it 3 people!
Here is the exact math...

Simulated 100000 7 Card Stud 8/B Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
 Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Win Lo Tie Lo Scoop Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total Range 1 18.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 (268:190)/22100 QQ *; 3h Ts 6d 9d 2 48.3 48.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.3 (46:35)/22100 Ac Tc *; 8h Ad 9c Js 3 33.6 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.6 (1:1)/22100 6s Ah Kc; As 8s 2h Jc

Isn't it possible though that Seat 1 got stubborn, not thinking he was getting into a raising war, on 4th street and has a range (basically all baby card combinations that connect with his door card and have at least a gutshot on 5th street) that looks more like this?

Simulated 100000 7 Card Stud 8/B Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
 Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Win Lo Tie Lo Scoop Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total Range 1 20.3 14.2 0.0 26.3 0.0 14.2 (148:65)/22100 2h34, 2h5h, 4h5h, 4h7h *; 3h Ts 6d 9d 2 45.6 49.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 (46:35)/22100 Ac Tc *; 8h Ad 9c Js 3 34.1 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.4 (1:1)/22100 6s Ah Kc; As 8s 2h Jc

06-16-2012, 03:49 PM   #33
newbie

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: California
Posts: 47
Re: Stud8 Bet on 7th?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin McLain
Here is the exact math...

Simulated 100000 7 Card Stud 8/B Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
 Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Win Lo Tie Lo Scoop Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total Range 1 18.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 (268:190)/22100 QQ *; 3h Ts 6d 9d 2 48.3 48.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.3 (46:35)/22100 Ac Tc *; 8h Ad 9c Js 3 33.6 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.6 (1:1)/22100 6s Ah Kc; As 8s 2h Jc
Noticed I flubbed this . Here is the proper math

Simulated 100000 7 Card Stud 8/B Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
 Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Win Lo Tie Lo Scoop Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total Range 1 23.8 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.8 (268:190)/22100 QQ *; 3h Ts 6d 9d 2 29.8 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 (46:35)/22100 Ac 3c *; 8h Ad 9c Js 3 46.4 46.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.4 (1:1)/22100 6s Ah Kc; As 8s 2h Jc

06-16-2012, 04:45 PM   #34
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Doesn't have a leg to stand on.
Posts: 7,456
Re: Stud8 Bet on 7th?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Kevin McLain Make it 3 people!
TY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin McLain
Here is the exact math...

Simulated 100000 7 Card Stud 8/B Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
 Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Win Lo Tie Lo Scoop Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total Range 1 18.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 (268:190)/22100 QQ *; 3h Ts 6d 9d 2 48.3 48.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.3 (46:35)/22100 Ac Tc *; 8h Ad 9c Js 3 33.6 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.6 (1:1)/22100 6s Ah Kc; As 8s 2h Jc

Isn't it possible though that Seat 1 got stubborn, not thinking he was getting into a raising war, on 4th street and has a range (basically all baby card combinations that connect with his door card and have at least a gutshot on 5th street) that looks more like this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin McLain
Noticed I flubbed this . Here is the proper math

Simulated 100000 7 Card Stud 8/B Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
 Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Win Lo Tie Lo Scoop Combos (Natural:Reduced)/Total Range 1 23.8 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.8 (268:190)/22100 QQ *; 3h Ts 6d 9d 2 29.8 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 (46:35)/22100 Ac 3c *; 8h Ad 9c Js 3 46.4 46.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.4 (1:1)/22100 6s Ah Kc; As 8s 2h Jc
Yeah, seat 3, now knowing his hand, has a ultra wide call range here on third which is bad. His hand just doesn't play well on later streets here.

And I think I ran a sim in the article where it was clear hero should have a plurality of the EQ here but scooping vs. two hands here hero is a dog. Kinda like the one above. But that's what would a made a bet here so great. I mean, whenever you know you have the most equity in a given hand you should be willing to put as much in as you can, barring wacky bubble or satty situations.

06-16-2012, 06:22 PM   #35
newbie

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: California
Posts: 47
Re: Stud8 Bet on 7th?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Go Get It TY Yeah, seat 3, now knowing his hand, has a ultra wide call range here on third which is bad. His hand just doesn't play well on later streets here. And I think I ran a sim in the article where it was clear hero should have a plurality of the EQ here but scooping vs. two hands here hero is a dog. Kinda like the one above. But that's what would a made a bet here so great. I mean, whenever you know you have the most equity in a given hand you should be willing to put as much in as you can, barring wacky bubble or satty situations.
I think whether a check/call, check/fold or value bet is best is very situational. As an example if Seat 1 is capable of folding unless he has Two Pair and/or Seat 3 has a capable enough read on you to raise you when he hits his Two Pair wouldn't the value bet be -EV

Here is your best case where both players just call 100% of the time whether they improve or not
.464 * 2 = .928
.238 * -1 = -.238
.298 * -1 = -.298
.928 - .238 - .298 = .392

Here is the case where Seat 1 folds unless he improves and Seat 3 always calls
.464 * 1 = .464
.238 * -1 = -.238
.298 * -1 = -.298
.464 - .238 - .298 = -.072

Case where Seat 1 folds unless he hits Q's up and Seat 3 raises with Aces Up and you call (even if you don't call its still slight -EV)
.238 * -1 = -.238
.464 * 1 = .464
.298 * -2 = -.596
.464 - .238 - .596 = -.37

Also you have put Seat 1 on a VERY exact range. If you include some cases where he is drawing low with a straight draw (like I postulated above) and is almost sure to fold unless he has you scooped or makes his low then your value bet has even worse EV. I personally think you have to factor in this range at least *some* of the time. There is no way you can pin this player to exactly JJ-KK (actually a competent player would never play these hands like that and would be more likely to have caught some sort of high/low draw on 5th)

Looking at it I think its still an extremely thin value bet and derives its value from you having the greatest equity going to 7th street and the expectation that Seat 1 is going to call as light as QQ

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