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Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand?

08-03-2015 , 05:28 PM
Comments on every street appreciated. This is the kind of spot in stud8 where I'm still struggling to figure out whether I'm generally overvaluing my hand.

Seat 1: Ks
Seat 2: 5s
Seat 3: (vacant)
Seat 4: Qc
Seat 5: Js
Seat 6: (vacant)
Seat 7: 5h
Seat 8 (Hero): 8h (7h5d)

3rd Street: Seat 7 elects to complete for $5. Hero calls. Seat 2 raises to $10. Seat 4 calls. Seat 7 raises to $15. Hero calls. Seat 2 raises to $20 to cap it. Seat 4 calls. Seat 7 calls. Hero calls.

4th Street:
Seat 2: (xx)5sQs
Seat 4: (xx)QcAd
Seat 7: (xx)5h7d
Seat 8 (hero) (7h5d)8h5c

Seat 4 checks. Seat 7 bets $5. Everyone calls.

5th Street:
Seat 2: (xx)5sQs2d
Seat 4: (xx)QcAd4c
Seat 7: (xx)5h7d6d
Seat 8 (hero) (7h5d)8h5c4d

Seat 4 checks. Seat 8 bets $10. Everyone calls.

6th Street:
Seat 2: (xx)5sQs2dKh
Seat 4: (xx)QcAd4c9c
Seat 7: (xx)5h7d6d3h
Seat 8 (hero) (7h5d)8h5c4d6s

Seat 4 checks. Seat 7 bets $10. Everyone calls.

7th Street:
Seat 2: (xx)5sQs2dKh(x)
Seat 4: (xx)QcAd4c9c(x)
Seat 7: (xx)5h7d6d3h(x)
Seat 8 (hero) (7h5d)8h5c4d6s(7s)

Seat 4 checks. Seat 7 checks. Hero bets $10.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-03-2015 , 06:31 PM
Typo: on 5th Street, it was Seat 7 who bet $10 with everyone calling, consistent with the other streets (except 7th Street).
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-03-2015 , 06:54 PM
I like the whole hand as played.

I assume the question of over-valuing pertains to the starting hand. Sixes, Fours and Nines being live makes Third street worth suffering all the action and from there you hand keeps improving.

There are some lineups where you can raise Fourth and get some folds from the hands falling dead in fear of a jam, but without player reads I think calling and accepting your improvement passively/inexpensively is fine.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 12:56 AM
Isn't 6th a tad MUBSY? Are you worried that 4 seat is going to c/r w/ clubs?

------------------

I'd rather have a live pair to try that 4th street raise. Every time I try it though they all call anyway so I've pretty much given up on it.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 01:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
I like the whole hand as played.

I assume the question of over-valuing pertains to the starting hand. Sixes, Fours and Nines being live makes Third street worth suffering all the action and from there you hand keeps improving.

There are some lineups where you can raise Fourth and get some folds from the hands falling dead in fear of a jam, but without player reads I think calling and accepting your improvement passively/inexpensively is fine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Beale
Isn't 6th a tad MUBSY? Are you worried that 4 seat is going to c/r w/ clubs?

------------------

I'd rather have a live pair to try that 4th street raise. Every time I try it though they all call anyway so I've pretty much given up on it.
Thanks very much for the input so far, guys. electrical, yes, I've been most curious about third street and how comfortable we are generally sticking in capped bets in this spot. My thoughts were the same as what you've identified: all of our key cards for making a straight are live and our hand is generally going to play well multiway especially with a 9 being a disguisedly good card.

Another key thing I was curious about was how strongly to play our hand on 6th once we make a straight. Howard, you're right, I was most worried about clubs (Seat 4), especially with another Q being shown by Seat 2 and the tiny amount of clubs which have appeared elsewhere. I'm still not sure whether the caution in just calling was more +EV than raising and hoping for the best. Given Seat 7's board, I definitely think that a good villain is going to be checking clubs a lot anticipating a good jam spot. I suppose if we take this line, we have to fold if Seat 4 sets up the jam.

Re: potentially raising fourth street, I like the logic, but in practice I've noticed the same as Howard that people just never fold in such spots on this site.

I'm also pretty curious about 7th. Once checked to, is this a mandatory bet?
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 01:28 AM
Id raise sixth for value, hoping one of the others comes along drawing near dead. You only need one to call and you could be free rolling for half.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 03:03 AM
If you raise Six you could lose both the incomplete low and the Queen fearing a reraise/cap. If you flat they'll most likely both overcall, which puts the same amount of money in the pot as if one of them calls, with the potential for one of them to make something and allow you to raise or jam the river.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 04:02 AM
I'm raising Six for sure
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 05:58 AM
It is better to fold 3rd after calling one bet and it is 2 more bets back to you and may get jammed. The 8h(7h5x) isn't that good, the other players have better hands, and there is no point in getting involved in a jammed pot.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:21 AM
Yeah, I fold 3rd quickly.

Only other st that's close is 6th. Depending on gameflow, I like a raise I think. NH.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 07:18 AM
Lol what

Not folding Third, you have nearly 3 straight, 2 flush, and low draw
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 09:12 AM
Lol 'nearly'.

All said draws are not great. You like your hand once it's two more bets back to you? I don't.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 01:34 PM
OP's cards are all live in a 4 way pot. I fling in the chips and take my chances.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 02:06 PM
Unless at least one of the villains is a monkey, I do not. Maybe I'm a nit.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
I'm also pretty curious about 7th. Once checked to, is this a mandatory bet?
It is for me bec a check from seat 7 means that he's caught 2 pair along the way and whiffed the river or maybe he started w/ KK, say, and whiffed also and we have the low locked up almost always and I'd be expecting to scoop.


--------------------

A little nitty, Rich, but I know what you're saying.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-04-2015 , 09:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichGangi
Lol 'nearly'.

All said draws are not great. You like your hand once it's two more bets back to you? I don't.
Folding is conservative but fine before you call any bets. I prefer to play these spots against average or worse competition. With anything in the pot pre, we're getting our share of the pot and can continue profitably once we enter:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: k j
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
8h 7h 5d22.81% 43,241129,1661,247127,2872,561
$L$L, QQ-AA/5s26.47% 53,502107,2281,116195,3553,640
$L$L, Ah*h, QQ-AA/5h26.13% 51,696105,4401,128192,9553,665
99-AA, *c*c, *q/qc24.59% 32,241256,399449,326126
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-05-2015 , 08:49 PM
For me 3rd is an easy fold the first time around. You have a very marginal hand and are in the worst position, with so many to act behind you. As played I might fold it the second time around as well, I hate paying 3 more bets here and then being pot-stuck for any weak draws you have later in the hand.

I would typically raise 6th street here, but I like some of the arguments for calling so I'm not sure about that now.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-26-2015 , 10:40 AM
OP doesn't include ante/bring in structure, but unless they are exactly zero I don't really see the argument for folding 3rd at any point. the game is 6 handed, there are 3 paints on board, all of our gin cards are live, we have a non-razzy type hand that can easily scoop, and the bring-in OPEN completed. i want to play pots with players like these.

how is this even close to a debate?

Last edited by HeyItsMeMikey; 08-26-2015 at 10:46 AM.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
08-27-2015 , 09:14 PM
How is this even a close debate, indeed, Mikey? (How am I losing at poker?!)

OK, readless, a 5h completes instead of the typical bring-in. That alone is a bit concerning, since there remains a 5s and an 8h still left to act behind him. Its not like the 5h is completing into KKJT9 or some similar high-only board. Therefore, the 5h is not on a steal; he has a hand.

Why call in the first place.? Sure, you can attempt to justify a lose call with a bad hand, but where’s the incentive? The 5h is basically saying, “I have a good hand.” Could 8h7h5d be a better hand than that hand? Almost never. But I have a straight draw! No, you need a 6, so you are drawing to the worst possible low, and need a 6 for a straight. Sounds like you are behind, and without a six, you’re not catching up. You have no money invested in this pot. The fact that the 9 and 4 are live is inconsequential if there’s no six. So, you are trying to attempt to justify a call with a weak high hand, and a weak low hand — on what, the hopes of a 6 AND another card? Seems especially gambly in the face of a complete from the best card in Stud-8-or-better.
OK, so you made a stupid call. Now what? Well, the other best-Stud-Eight card raised the best card’s complete. And the other best card, who initially took an unusually aggressive action with his best card now re-raises. How can you call here?
I’m never raising Sixth Street because I’m scared that any decent player with a made club flush will always check to the seemingly-obviously made low, and expect to get at least two bets in on that street. Betting here will usually result in you facing a raise in a terrible spot.
Even for me, a player who struggles with value-smashing himself in the face on the river, this is not a bet. Once seat 2 peels through sixth street, he has a better low draw or high draw than you. Seat 7 could have a better low than you based simply on his board. Seat 4 likely has a draw to clubs or broadway - neither of which are calling you unless you are beat.
Your hand would typically be worth a river bet when checked to, but here, with big hands expecting seat 7 to bet frequently, a bet here is more risky, especially when facing multiple hands that seem to be drawing to beat you in both directions, and that seem not to be able to call if they miss those draws.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
09-03-2015 , 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
7th Street:
Seat 2: (xx)5sQs2dKh(x)
Seat 4: (xx)QcAd4c9c(x)
Seat 7: (xx)5h7d6d3h(x)
Seat 8 (hero) (7h5d)8h5c4d6s(7s)

Seat 4 checks. Seat 7 checks. Hero bets $10.
What do we know ?
You have the worst possible low...I can't see thinking otherwise
However, you have a good high hand. I'd bet, because seat 4 checks with 3 clubs showing and chances are he didn't get there with his flush draw. For him checking with a flush would be a bad play on his part, IMO.
I would guess seat 7 has a better low than you and seat 2 has nothing.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
09-11-2015 , 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty 2.0
Lol what

Not folding Third, you have nearly 3 straight, 2 flush, and low draw
bad low, our "2 flush" is an 8-high flush pipe dream, and a backdoor straight that needs help really f.. bad. It's not like we have an OESD we need to make a gutshot first.
and all this in a capped pot pre?

I think some people are being results oriented when we spiked that 6.

just seems too stationy imo
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
09-11-2015 , 07:43 PM
as played 3rd st is fine
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
09-16-2015 , 06:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
For me 3rd is an easy fold the first time around. You have a very marginal hand and are in the worst position, with so many to act behind you.
It's 6-handed and there's only one low left to act.

I don't know, I put money into the pot nearly every time save for some weird dynamic or some exceptionally good players yet to act. May be a leak of mine.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
09-16-2015 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeyItsMeMikey
OP doesn't include ante/bring in structure
Sorry, ante $1.25, bring in $2.50. Thanks to all who have posted itt.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote
09-19-2015 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
Sorry, ante $1.25, bring in $2.50. Thanks to all who have posted itt.
In that case folding is absolutely out of the question. Don't think it's really even close.
Stud8, 5-10 American Site Spot: Am I Overvaluing My Hand? Quote

      
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