I started with split tens with an 8 in the whole. Older guy raises with a jack, I call and we're hu. He bets all the way to 6th street where I pair my 8. He bets, I raise knowing that at that point my 2 pair is winning. On 7th street do you bet out (I had a K on my board) for a value bet or check and make a crying call if he bets?

Is he calling with 1 pair?

Yes. He'd call. I knew on sixth that I was ahead hence the raise. Just in case he pairs another card on seventh I didn't wanna lose 2 bets if he raised. I also figured by raising 6th street it was equivalent to calling 6 and 7 streets

Assuming he has 1 pair to start, how often will he have 2 pair on the river? If you called 100% of the time, would that be better or worse than check-calling?

Edit: presuming he had just 1 pair on 6th also

How was it his bet on 6th and yours on 7th?

If he started with a split pair you cannot know if he paired his kicker. If he started with a pocket pair you cannot know if he's made trips. You can make inferences based on the liveness of his board cards, but that's the best you can do.

If you're not showing a pair you should bet for value most of the time. You're going to call if he bets, you've shown aggression so he's unlikely to raise and he may not bet hands you beat. All that argues for a value bet on the river.

A more interesting question is whether you should fold if he raises or not. That depends on hands you've seen him show down and how he played them. If he's an uncreative nit then folding to a river raise is usually best, although the pot will be big enough that you only need a very small possible number of bluff raises (or worse hands raising mistakenly) to make calling correct.

I believe he was high on 6th and checked dark on 7th. So essentially by checking 7th I missed a value bet

-If u know he will call with 1pair at the end u have to bet...
-If u know he got only 1pair at 6th u have definitly bet on 7th...

With your check on 7th u missed a bet , miss a bet is lose a bet.

I prefer check/call the 7th , if i think he play a draw (flush or straight) , because if i bet , he will not call if he miss , but he will raise if he hit , no value to betting against draws...

I think knowing the stakes and live or online is really important to making a decision in this spot.

Live 20-40 club game

So a real game. I used the multi-quote so ppl won't have to scroll up.

You've got (10-8) 10-K-?-8. He has a board of J-?-?-? and you are sure you're ahead on 6th. You give no reads, no history, no playing style except for what we take 'older guy' to mean although you say he'll call w/ 1 pair. I'd really, really like to have a better read. W/O that I'd say bet. Your problem will be what do you do if he raises? Pot's decently large. I wouldn't be critical if others say c/c is better or that it's a disaster if it gets checked through and your hand is good.

And if you check and he bets I know that I'm not ever folding and don't consider it a crying call.

How do you "know" your two pair is good on 6th?

He must have an A or K up, since he acted first on 6th street. If your image is an aggressive player, I'd lean toward betting 7th. If you have a two-flush with one of the flush cards as your door-card, I'd lean toward betting. Otherwise, I would lean toward check-calling or bet-folding. Check-call versus aggressives; bet-fold versus passives.

You ever read a guys soul? It was one of those reads

Simple answer, then: Soul read the river also.

I did but pussed out and it went check check. I was good. Missing the seventh street bet tilted me cause he woulda called.

Sorry but if you checked then soul = unread

*Grunch*

He cannot bet all the way into you if you have a K on board, unless you c/r 6th?

Either way, sure seems like a value bet to me, bet/fold the river.

Is there a percentage of the time that you call a river raise here, just to keep him off you? Or do you wait for a better situation?

Pot odds u gotta call a river raise no matter what at 20-40. Just incase although he is a pretty straight forward player

You have to be wary of someone who can make a play on you, but part of being a winner at limit games is folding for a single bet when the pot odds are good but not good enough. Is this one of those times? That actually largely depends on how good your opponent is, and what his viewpoint of you is.

If he believes you can not fold 2 pair then you must fold 2 pair.

Given the description of this player and pot size, it's just not enough. Do you do it a second time? Well, you did it once, so that moves the line more to calling. But more importantly you have to watch out for the observant player who might do it in a later hand.

It works both ways vs the observant player as I'm sure you are only betting two pair here, so I can make an easy one-pair fold.

Most players (and posters) here tend to over analyze what standard-ish players do. They just look down and see "oh, I made 3-jacks, raise" and dont really think anything other than level 0.

Pot is not big enough, there is very little chance your hand is good vs a river raise here.

My objection to the bet/fold line is that when it comes to the fold part hardly anybody actually can do it. I can do it, other ppl in this forum can do it, but most players (from my observation) can't and they just groan/curse/hate life and call. And if they DO b/f they often spend the rest of the session wondering if they should have taken a different line. For that I look to myself and the bit of tilt it causes and I suppose that others have the same problem. I'm conflicted in this case: I want the extra bet, checking may induce villain to make a bet w/ a worse hand, but what I most want is to show my hand and see if it's good. On balance I think most players would be better off w/ a c/c.

Agreed. Just tough to lay down. Looking back, he can only raise with a 3rd jack. If he hits 2 pair he really only can call