Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Stud Discussions of various forms of stud poker.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-12-2017, 01:33 PM   #1
LUCIUS VARENUS
Soldier of Minbet
 
LUCIUS VARENUS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Arboretum, Nottingham
Posts: 10,124
Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

Poker Stars $0.20/$0.40 Limit Stud $0.04 Ante - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

3rd Street: (1.2 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 6____Seat 1 brings in for $0.08____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9____Seat 3 completes____Seat 3 calls
Seat 4: xx xx K____Seat 4 folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9____Seat 5 folds
Hero: K 4 K___Hero raises

4th Street: (5.6 SB) (2 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 9 9____Seat 3 checks
Hero: K 4 K 5___Hero checks

5th Street: (2.8 BB) (2 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 9 9 J____Seat 3 bets
Hero: K 4 K 5 3___Hero folds
LUCIUS VARENUS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2017, 08:53 PM   #2
doylebrunson1337
grinder
 
doylebrunson1337's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Micros 4-ever
Posts: 509
Re: Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

the chance of him hittin trips on 4th are 5,8823529411764705882352941176471%. Id bet 4th.

By looking at all door cards on 3rd Villain is completing a paired nine if he has it and maybe even cap it.

edit: I am putting him on a flush draw and ur ahead on 5th then.
doylebrunson1337 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 02:24 PM   #3
RichGangi
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RichGangi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Unearned income my a**!
Posts: 7,136
Re: Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

Yeah, I'm betting 4th. He can easily have something like low clubs, and you're giving him license to steal by checking.
RichGangi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 10:07 AM   #4
tiger415
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: bay area
Posts: 1,102
Re: Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

without looking at dead cards,

There's 1275 combos in total given 9c:
(51 * 50 /2)

There's 66 combos of flush draws:
(12 * 11 /2)

There's 75 combos of 22-AA (excluding 99):
(6 combos of 22 to AA)

There's 144 combos of 9s (excluding 99):
(3 combos of 9 * 48 combos of 2-A)

There's 3 combos of 99.

seems like snap check on 4th.
peel 5th and peel 6th if villain doesn't improve.
fold river UI

here's hero's equity on 5th vs. 2p (qq or worse):
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
22-qq / 9c9hjc58.36% 350,1760
kh4dkd5h3d41.64% 249,8240

and hero's equity on 5th vs. 2p or better:
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
22-aa, 9* / 9c9hjc77.30% 463,8290
kh4dkd5h3d22.70% 136,1710

Last edited by tiger415; 02-21-2017 at 10:20 AM.
tiger415 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 10:21 AM   #5
tiger415
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: bay area
Posts: 1,102
Re: Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

now when i factor in dead cards:

vs. 2p (qq or worse):
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 68k9
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
22-qq / 9c9hjc55.78% 334,6880
kh4dkd5h3d44.22% 265,3120

vs. 2p or better:
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 68k9
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
22-aa, 9* / 9c9hjc73.56% 441,3370
kh4dkd5h3d26.44% 158,6630

assuming u'll call 3 bets to river:
(3 BB/(2.8 BB + 2*3 BB) = 3/8.8 = 34%)

seems like u'll need 34% on 5th. Villain's range is probably weighed less towards trips since he didn't donk on 4th, so it's probably a peel.
tiger415 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 08:18 PM   #6
betgo
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
betgo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 28,374
Re: Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

Fold after the suspicious check on 4th.
betgo is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:32 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online