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 06-13-2012, 01:19 AM #1 veteran     Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: muck with a capital F Posts: 2,761 Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw If it is HU, and you are drawing to only a low on 6th street. How many bets does the pot need to be in order to call? Hero has 2c 3c 4c 5d Jh 9s Villain has xxKKKK When villain bets. What odds does hero need to get to make the call? How would you let dead cards effect this decision? Cheers
 06-13-2012, 03:01 AM #2 journeyman     Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 382 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw Take number of live unpairing low cards, divide by total number of unseen cards, multiply by 100 and divide by 2 (since we're drawing to half the pot) and that is your pot equity expressed as a percentage. So in this case, we're about 38% to make the hand, putting our equity at 19%, so we need a little more than 4:1 to call, so the pot would have to be over 4 BBs. Now if there were say, 3 dead As and 3 dead 6s on 3rd street, we would need over 6:1 to call, although we might extrapolate that the downcards are more likely to be high cards if those players folded 3rd.
 06-13-2012, 04:34 AM #3 grinder   Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 583 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw in your case the pot should have to be 0.84BB(assuming you fold 7th ui) on 6th if aces and sixes are live outs for hi (and all other low outs are live)
06-13-2012, 10:01 AM   #4
journeyman

Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 382
Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kaspydonk in your case the pot should have to be 0.84BB(assuming you fold 7th ui) on 6th if aces and sixes are live outs for hi (and all other low outs are live)
Hero has no outs to beat quads for high

06-13-2012, 12:54 PM   #5
veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: muck with a capital F
Posts: 2,761
Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Donk Quixote so the pot would have to be over 4 BBs.

Thanks. This is what I was looking for. Just knowing the general answer without trying to calculate everything every time (probably using my fingers). I can adjust this a bit depending what cards I have seen.

Cheers

 06-13-2012, 04:46 PM #6 grinder   Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 583 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw right didnt see villains hand.in that case ~3.27BB potsize on 6th
 06-13-2012, 11:34 PM #7 veteran     Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: muck with a capital F Posts: 2,761 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw What if it was same situation, but on 5th street instead of 6th. What odds would you need to call a bet knowing you have 2 streets to hopefully chop? When do you just give up? Example Hero 2348J Villain XXKKK
 06-14-2012, 08:32 AM #8 banned     Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,482 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw http://propokertools.com/simulations throw it in there and then do the math. you can enter dead cards to make it more precise. lets give villain hidden pair of 9's so that all lows are live. then you have ~20% equity, if there are 2\$ in the pot and a 1\$ bet you have to call, you lose money doing that. 3\$ in the pot and 1\$ to call, you break-even and so on. in a high-game, you'd lose 4 times 1\$ and win 4\$ the 5th time. here you brick ~62.5% and split 37.5% time. 2348J vs 99KKK has ~31% equity, but if you are not on 6th street, you have to look at the playability of your hand, the earlier the street, the more important is the playabilty and the less important are the effective odds. he knows you go low and when he cant be beaten for the high, you obv have bad playability. please correct me, if im wrong with my math-part, quite some time ago, that i did that. Last edited by HU4holes; 06-14-2012 at 08:54 AM.
 06-15-2012, 10:51 AM #9 Soldier of Minbet     Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: DOMUS CLAMANTIUM Posts: 9,197 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw when you are looking at quads on board it is time to throw away a low draw
06-15-2012, 01:31 PM   #10

Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 822
Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS when you are looking at quads on board it is time to throw away a low draw
If the quads are low cards, maybe. Otherwise the pot is pretty much guaranteed to be big enough.

 06-19-2012, 12:23 AM #11 Soldier of Minbet     Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: DOMUS CLAMANTIUM Posts: 9,197 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw there is no point calling to try to get your money back. play to scoop. we fold queens when we are looking at three low wheel cards. so we fold wheel cards when we are looking at quads. what's the difference?
 06-19-2012, 04:15 AM #12 adept   Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 822 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw Now you're just trolling. Nice try. Anyway, the pot needs to be 3.26BB against KKKK and 5BB against 8888 (before considering that his hole cards are likely to be low as well). Last edited by Vempele; 06-19-2012 at 04:24 AM.
 06-19-2012, 09:29 AM #13 Soldier of Minbet     Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: DOMUS CLAMANTIUM Posts: 9,197 Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw no i'm not trolling mate. to win at eight or better you dont call to get your money back or lose it all anyway, i never see quads on board when i got a low draw because i would've folded looking at three of them
06-19-2012, 10:03 AM   #14
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Recliner of Rage
Posts: 5,125
Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS no i'm not trolling mate. to win at eight or better you dont call to get your money back or lose it all anyway, i never see quads on board when i got a low draw because i would've folded looking at three of them
You have to see the river no matter what if it's capped on 3rd and you have a live low draw on 4th. It doesn't matter whose money it was, it's in the pot now.

06-19-2012, 04:16 PM   #15

Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 822
Re: Stud/8 odds needed to call 6th street low draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS no i'm not trolling mate. to win at eight or better you dont call to get your money back or lose it all
You don't just get your money back, you also get half of what's already in the pot. 2378Q rainbow hits 60% of the time against **KKK. 40% of the time, you lose 2BB. The other 60% of the time, you win 0.5P. 0.6*0.5P = 0.4*2BB -> P = 0.8/0.3 = 2.67BB. The pot needs to be 2.67BB before villain's bet on 5th for you to call down. That's just a few antes, a completion on 3rd and a bet on 4th.

(237 selected as starting hand because I didn't want any backdoor straights or trup aa).

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