4-way table atm. Don't remember a couple of the suits. Bring-in is 8.

I have AA|K and i raise.
K folds.
A calls.
8r bring in folds.

4th:
Villain: A 5
Me: A A | K 8

villain bets, i call.

5th:
Villain: A 5 8
Me: A A | K 8 T

villain bets. what's your guys' plan here if you know villain to be a standard reg?
how does your plan change if you know villain will play paint cards in the hole?

thanks

Against standard: keep clicking call, lead 6th if he bricks and you make 2 pair. Vs a big fish: raise and then start clicking call if reraised.

hmm, thanks. suppose you both brick 6th, are you just trying to c/c 6th and 7th too with just one pair aces?

Super boring hand from heroes prospective, but yeah just have to call and be really bored with the outcome like always.

Or just make 2 pair at some point and never get less than half.

yeah my standard's always been to just call down aside from really nasty boards. but i've never really known the math or fundamentals at least, if anyone could explain?

also assuming we're unimproved by 6th, which cards can villain catch that'll make us fold?

you got a dead ace and two dead eights. time to look at the trash pile. starting on 4th.

you dont want to be giving a free roll and calling down with one dead pair.

hm

seems like a couple consider it standard to call down, while ray feels it's a muck. does that mean it's actually fairly close either way? if someone could help with the math of it, i'd love to see it as i don't have a great grasp of the fundamentals here. just one of those spots i guess i've always taken for granted. i'd really like to figure out where i'm truly at from a technical standpoint.

myself, mostly i've generally just called down in these spots. but i took a lot of time off from poker, and since returning i've played a lot more conservatively and have looked to avoid getting free-rolled with compromised outs, as ray mentioned. feels like this is a really common spot that i should know the math behind, but don't.

thanks for the replies, btw, guys.

look, imo there are two problems for your hand here: equity and playability.

as long as you are not up against an uberfish that plays hands like 99A or 2TA vs your K door you are not really ahead on 4th and 5th. equitywise you are on the better side of a flip at best. but the real trouble is: if villain is competent he knows exactly where both of you stand. he can play accordingly and charge you the max (or min) on the big bets streets. the dead cards are also not in our favor, bc the cards you need to pair are dead and, conversly, the cards villain needs to have a worse paired hand are dead, too. and even in the best case scenario (you improve on 6th and villain bricks) you still can't put comfortably a bet or raise in bc you might already be freerolled and really don't like to see a raise here.

so against a good player / unkown i'd strongly consider to fold 5th. against a player that i know likes to play any three cards i'm okay, but not thrilled, to call down.


as for the math you can always plug the hand in twodimes or propokertools or such sites and compare your equity vs various hands villain could have.

thanks for the take.

Yeah, i've been consistently trying to enter equities of situations like this lately. I've been finding, as you say, you're not much of a favorite as you'd like to be on 4th/5th.

What i more mean about the math, is whether i'm interpreting and applying equity decisions properly. I mean, anyone can run equities, right? And if you are like 70/30 that speaks for itself. But if i do something like this:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
A A K T 8	43.83%	103,180	422,433	369	0	0
$L $L, *s*s, *A, 22-KK| As 5s 8h	56.17%	177,198	177,198	369	419,127	0

I feel like i dunno what i'm supposed to be interpreting here. Obviously it's -EV to make this call, but not by much. And it's a lot easier to see a call when you're only putting in a bit of losing equity on 5th in a limit game.

Sorry if what i'm saying is a bit convoluted. But basically for an equity decision this close, what kind of mistake am i making if i fold vs call? And am i missing something dead obvious that makes this a standard call down for a couple of the posters in this thread? Because on the surface of this, i see a lot more reasons to fold and avoid yuck than i do to call.

On 5th, you're getting something like 3.5:1, so you only have to have ~22% equity to call. So whether you're 43.83% in your above simulation or 30% in your 70/30 scenario, it's a standard call. You might be confusing putting in money behind and -EV, because calling with 43% equity when you're 3.5:1 is definitely +EV.

^-- this is obv right. there is money in the pot, so a kinda coinflippy situation like this is a call from a pure equity point of view. but there are other things going on here, some mentioned above.

imo calling 4th and esp. calling 5th too light is one of the biggest mistake in stud8. if i call a bet on 5th in such a situation a rather small pot (2bb + ante) doubles up and i really have to fight for it. and even the best case scenario for 6th (the case A vs brick) is kinda meh to me because there is a very reasonably chance that i am fighting just for half or even be freerolled. marginal spot at best in a poker game where you can really punish villains in better spots.

tossing 5th is lighting $$ on fire. A close spot would be if you had K2 in the hole instead.

Agree with this. I would probably call down Kings vs. incompetent player and fold vs. competent. Based off the Hand, I would assume Villain is somewhat incompetent as most of his A door cards should combat your K complete and dead K with a re-raise. An even more interesting holding for Hero would be A2K. In this situation I would be more inclined to call down.