Quote:
Originally Posted by C17H21NO4
look, imo there are two problems for your hand here: equity and playability.
as long as you are not up against an uberfish that plays hands like 99A or 2TA vs your K door you are not really ahead on 4th and 5th. equitywise you are on the better side of a flip at best. but the real trouble is: if villain is competent he knows exactly where both of you stand. he can play accordingly and charge you the max (or min) on the big bets streets. the dead cards are also not in our favor, bc the cards you need to pair are dead and, conversly, the cards villain needs to have a worse paired hand are dead, too. and even in the best case scenario (you improve on 6th and villain bricks) you still can't put comfortably a bet or raise in bc you might already be freerolled and really don't like to see a raise here.
so against a good player / unkown i'd strongly consider to fold 5th. against a player that i know likes to play any three cards i'm okay, but not thrilled, to call down.
as for the math you can always plug the hand in twodimes or propokertools or such sites and compare your equity vs various hands villain could have.
thanks for the take.
Yeah, i've been consistently trying to enter equities of situations like this lately. I've been finding, as you say, you're not much of a favorite as you'd like to be on 4th/5th.
What i more mean about the math, is whether i'm interpreting and applying equity decisions properly. I mean, anyone can run equities, right? And if you are like 70/30 that speaks for itself. But if i do something like this:
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
A A K T 8 | 43.83% | 103,180 | 422,433 | 369 | 0 | 0 |
$L $L, *s*s, *A, 22-KK| As 5s 8h | 56.17% | 177,198 | 177,198 | 369 | 419,127 | 0 |
I feel like i dunno what i'm supposed to be interpreting here. Obviously it's -EV to make this call, but not by much. And it's a lot easier to see a call when you're only putting in a bit of losing equity on 5th in a limit game.
Sorry if what i'm saying is a bit convoluted. But basically for an equity decision this close, what kind of mistake am i making if i fold vs call? And am i missing something dead obvious that makes this a standard call down for a couple of the posters in this thread? Because on the surface of this, i see a lot more reasons to fold and avoid yuck than i do to call.