Poker Stars $20/$40 Limit Stud $4 Ante - 3 players - View hand 1834999
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

3rd Street: (0.6 SB)
Hero: 8 2 A ___Hero completes
Seat 2: xx xx Q ____Seat 2 brings in for $6____Seat 2 calls
Seat 3: xx xx K ____Seat 3 folds

4th Street: (2.6 SB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 2 A A ___Hero bets
Seat 2: xx xx Q 9 ____Seat 2 calls

5th Street: (3.3 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 2 A A 7 ___Hero checks___Hero calls
Seat 2: xx xx Q 9 Q ____Seat 2 bets

6th Street: (5.3 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 2 A A 7 9 ___Hero checks
Seat 2: xx xx Q 9 Q 3 ____Seat 2 checks

7th Street: (5.3 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 2 A A 7 9 7 ___Hero checks___Hero raises
Seat 2: xx xx Q 9 Q 3 xx____Seat 2 bets____Seat 2 calls

Bet double on 4th to clarify.

Looking back, assuming I used PPT correct, ch/k 5th is just bad.
Since I dont think we have any FE, should we just ch/f?

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
82AA7	28.16%	168,967	0
JT, AA, 9*, Q*	Q9Q	71.84%	431,033

As played, once we get to 7th, should we just put in the bet or what do you guys think of a c/r in this spot?

games are going to get tougher because of you. too many good questions. i'd like to hear good answers too.

i think you played it fine except 7th.i would just c/c.
since he checked 6th hes turning his hand face up so his most likely hand is qq+sd.
i doubt he will call with worse then trips or a straight but bet 2pair and sometimes bluff himself but all this is again read dependent.

Looking back to your simulation i think you can eliminate q*

Also is he really calling 4th with a pair of 9s against open aces?

Why would calling it with a pair of Qs be any better?

I was tacitly agreeing that I didn't think QQ was in his range, and adding that I didn't see why a pair of 9s was either.

This is wide-ish range for your opponent is wide but probably more what your sim should look like:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8h2h|AsAd7s	32.38%	194,278	0
22-AA, 9+9+, Q* |Qs9hQh	67.62%	405,722	0

So he's basically continuing with all 2-pair, obv trips and straight combos.

Oops. My thought as well. Actually pretty hard to construct a non silly call on 4th for villain here though.

My range for villain is AA,QQ,99,Q9,JT. We have 30% equity: 49% against JT (which he has 59% of the time) and 2% against the rest of the range. We need 32% to call down blind, but that's not a problem as we can fold 6th a lot (any 8-K if we don't improve, 8,Q,K if we don't make trup aa).

The problem is, we need to have a very good idea about what he does with JT and he needs to be doing it wrong. If he checks back 100%, easy call. If he barrels both streets 100%, call...but why would he do that? If we read his mind and find out he'll barrel 6/16 combos (making us nearly indifferent to calling or folding 6th), we should fold (and quit the game because he's a superuser and a reverse mind reader). There's probably a large range of percentages where we can't profitably call even if we know his strategy.

I would be really surprised if he didn't start with JT or AA (but heavily weighted by math and play to JT).

most times its best to fold here after he hits his doorcard.

Don't like c/c on Fifth. Either lead or c/f. You should lead to get value from JT, KJ preserve the dynamic for when we spike later or c/f if he ever plays split QQ like this on Third. If you check you're telling him to value bet his 2pr correctly or put in a bet with his straight draw holding good equity on Fourth, then give himself a free card on Fifth. Don't like the check on Fifth if you don't intend to fold.

c/r on river is pretty fancy and unlikely to make money. If you've bet the whole way you can bet the river because villain has decided to hang on with two pair sometimes and when he has us beat it's still hard to raise your board. As played here I don't know what to do but I'm pretty sure c/r isn't it.

5th is very iffy, I'm not even sure I like the c/r here on 7th. Villain is bad himself, and/or he thought you are extremely bad to actually be betting 7th there with Qs up.

Pretty sure this is the kind of spot where reads on the opponent's tendencies would help in getting input? Otherwise 5th through 7th stuff just won't do much...

Yea, messed up a bit, this is more like it