Both villain's seem aggro and semi-competent. My main questions are:

-Is the 3rd st. raise correct or should I be overcalling?
-5th st. check is standard, right? Seat 4 has three 3's or a strong draw way to often to bet, amirite?
-What is the optimal line on 7th st? Any value in a bet?


Full Tilt Poker $20/$40 Limit Stud $3 Ante - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

3rd Street: (0.75 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 8____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8____Seat 2 completes____Seat 2 calls
Hero: Q J A___Hero raises
Seat 4: xx xx 3____Seat 4 brings in for $6____Seat 4 calls
Seat 5: xx xx K____Seat 5 folds

4th Street: (6.75 SB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 8 6____Seat 2 calls
Hero: Q J A 4___Hero calls
Seat 4: xx xx 3 3____Seat 4 bets

5th Street: (4.875 BB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 8 6 6____Seat 2 checks
Hero: Q J A 4 4___Hero checks
Seat 4: xx xx 3 3 2____Seat 4 checks

6th Street: (4.875 BB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 8 6 6 J____Seat 2 checks____Seat 2 calls
Hero: Q J A 4 4 3___Hero bets
Seat 4: xx xx 3 3 2 5____Seat 4 calls

7th Street: (7.875 BB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 8 6 6 J xx____Seat 2 checks
Hero: Q J A 4 4 3 J___Hero checks???

3rd should be standard, you have a good hand HU against his range and should balance your reraises when you actually have Aces.

I bet 5th to try and represent Aces up, which is a consistent hand with your previous play and would have them drawing pretty thin with a lot of their ranges. If seat 4 folds, you gain position and can control the hand, vbetting all the way if improved and taking free cards or bluffing if you don't. I don't think Seat 4 should have trips here all that often, not many semi-competent players at this level take two to the face with split 3s on 3rd. This means you have plenty of outs almost always.

7th looks like a fairly standard vbet to me.

Edit: Oops, missed Seat 4 called 6th, then a valuebet is a lot thinner. Thought it was HU.

You don't say whether he single or double bets 4th but either way, I fold.

He bet $20

Wow, really? I figured, getting 9ish-to-1 and closing the action I needed to peel cause most of my flush and straight outs were still live (only the K dead) and pairing any of the A, Q, J (all live) would give me a draw to better two pair.

Like Noir_Desir said, a decent opponent won't have a set of 3's much here.

yeah bet river, prob one of those spots where u are never gonna get raised unless he got a boat. and he easily has like eights->tens up a lot

Firstly, 33 might have a set. Second, the other guy called (looks like he hit good and he also knows the 33 might be a set though most likely two pair AND he knows you might have split AA). What have you got apart from your runner, runner dreams? How much value is their in calling this bet?

After doing some twodimesing I'd estimate my equity is around 20%. I gave seat 2 8's and 6's which is imo his most likely hand by far and I tried a variety of scenarios for seat 4 including wired J's up, wired 7's up, 3-to-a-straightflush with a pair and set of 3's with an Ace kicker. I weighted them all equally, which might be a mistake. Best case was about 28% and worst 13.5%.

So how much equity do I need to continue?

Someone more technical may be able to answer that for you but you are gonna have to call a lot of bets before you find out who has what.

<-Mutters something about reverse implied odds but never really thought about them that hard.->

fold 4th, bet 7th for sure

Assume it cost you 2 bb to see river from 4th (1 sb on 4th + 2 bb 50% and 1 bb 50%) so its 7.5 to 2. you need over 20% equity. This assume pretty much that you never make a bad call on river. Really u need closer to 30% probably 28%.

But he folds 5th if he doesn't improve significantly, so i don't think that number applies here.

Def fold 4th. As played bet the riv for sure.

I really think that if I catch an A on 5th that I will be ahead of their ranges (as long as they don't visibly improve). A Queen or Jack might be closer but still a pretty good out. A set of 3's has to be discounted seriously from seat 4's range. He will bet his open pair regardless of what he has in the hole. And if seat 2 really caught good like a flushdraw I think he's raising 4th 100% of the time. If he has two pair I think he raises always as well to try to squeeze me out of the huge pot (I got confused with 4th and 5th st. when I said I put him on 8's and 6's in my earlier post).

Any club will give me a very strong draw too that I would want to continue with. So that's 12 very strong outs for me with 6 more for somewhat more marginal draws. The tricky spots will be when I catch a K, T or 4 but I'll just have to evaluate the situation when that happens.

But even if I only count on my 12 strong outs that's gotta be more than enough to peel one off getting 8.75:1. When you bloat the pot this much you can't play 100% fit-fold on in my opinion cause you will just get run over by the aggression at these stakes.

If i brick off or if I catch marginally and they catch well it's an easy bailout on 5th.

I like a fold on 4th.

he practically has to have 2 pair on 4th, fold

as played clear vbet, mostly because bet/fold > c/c

Yeah, it's a fold on fourth. But imho, I prob. fold third for a raise. Three high cards is strong if you can be the one raising, in large part because it lets you take control of the play and possibly steal the antes bring in there, or induce a fold on a later street. Once opponent raises, you have less chance of this, although if you do play I definitely like raising > calling.

There's little value in calling a completion with your hand because when you break off on 4th (which will happen a lot) unless your plan was to donk any turn card, you'll be forced to fold when he bets ( which I can only imagine a good-thinking stud player will do esp. if this was HU). By being the aggressor on 3rd (which is how I think these types of broadway/Ace door hands play best), you can c-bet on the turn and put doubt/fear in your opponents mind...and if he's doesn't get too attached to his hands or if he plays on the weak side, then you can give him the chance to fold a small-med. pair on the big bet streets, or if he started w/a straight/flush draw, then if he breaks off, he won't be able to bluff you out of the hand (which is obv. the best hand) when you check it to him on the future streets UI.

As played, I fold 4th.

Bet the river. If he raises, you should be able to get away from your hand esp. given your Ace door.

this + a lower two pair is likely and will probably call. Plus, given you clubs better hands are unlikely to raise.