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Stud high - guy pairs door - fold?

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02-12-2017 , 01:33 PM

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Poker Stars $0.20/$0.40 Limit Stud $0.04 Ante - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

3rd Street: (1.2 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 6

____Seat 1 brings in for $0.08____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8

____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9

____Seat 3 completes____Seat 3 calls
Seat 4: xx xx K

____Seat 4 folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9

____Seat 5 folds
Hero: K

___Hero raises

4th Street: (5.6 SB) (2 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 9

____Seat 3 checks
Hero: K

___Hero checks

5th Street: (2.8 BB) (2 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 9

____Seat 3 bets
Hero: K

___Hero folds

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02-12-2017 , 08:53 PM

doylebrunson1337

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 562

the chance of him hittin trips on 4th are 5,8823529411764705882352941176471%. Id bet 4th.

By looking at all door cards on 3rd Villain is completing a paired nine if he has it and maybe even cap it.

edit: I am putting him on a flush draw and ur ahead on 5th then.

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02-15-2017 , 02:24 PM

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,546

Yeah, I'm betting 4th. He can easily have something like low clubs, and you're giving him license to steal by checking.

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02-21-2017 , 10:07 AM

tiger415

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,264

without looking at dead cards,

There's 1275 combos in total given 9c:
(51 * 50 /2)

There's 66 combos of flush draws:
(12 * 11 /2)

There's 75 combos of 22-AA (excluding 99):
(6 combos of 22 to AA)

There's 144 combos of 9s (excluding 99):
(3 combos of 9 * 48 combos of 2-A)

There's 3 combos of 99.

seems like snap check on 4th.
peel 5th and peel 6th if villain doesn't improve.
fold river UI

here's hero's equity on 5th vs. 2p (qq or worse):

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-qq / 9c9hjc	58.36%	350,176	0
kh4dkd5h3d	41.64%	249,824	0

and hero's equity on 5th vs. 2p or better:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-aa, 9* / 9c9hjc	77.30%	463,829	0
kh4dkd5h3d	22.70%	136,171	0

Last edited by tiger415; 02-21-2017 at 10:20 AM.

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02-21-2017 , 10:21 AM

tiger415

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,264

now when i factor in dead cards:

vs. 2p (qq or worse):

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 6

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-qq / 9c9hjc	55.78%	334,688	0
kh4dkd5h3d	44.22%	265,312	0

vs. 2p or better:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 6

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-aa, 9* / 9c9hjc	73.56%	441,337	0
kh4dkd5h3d	26.44%	158,663	0

assuming u'll call 3 bets to river:
(3 BB/(2.8 BB + 2*3 BB) = 3/8.8 = 34%)

seems like u'll need 34% on 5th. Villain's range is probably weighed less towards trips since he didn't donk on 4th, so it's probably a peel.

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02-21-2017 , 08:18 PM

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Fold after the suspicious check on 4th.

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