Here's where I had his range:
4 low cards definitely, no question, the top of that range would be OESD with 3 flush...which is actually what he had.
here's what propokertools says (actual hands):
| Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
|---|
| Ac, 8h, 2h, 8c | 51.59% | 232,495 | 309,509 | 142 | 120,468 | 198 |
| 4s, 5h, 3s, 6s | 48.41% | 213,389 | 290,349 | 142 | 124,511 | 198 |
so I was thinking I was behind, when actually I'm marginally ahead.
3rd was a 4 way limped pot. Entering 4th and facing villians open I figured a raise would push out the other two, which it did.
Villians reraise was unexpected. I do have an overpair and I would have expected villian to respect that and just call. Thats why I said I thought he was willing to play for stacks, the only thing that stopped him at that point was being limited to pot size.
My plan was: get to heads up, and push him off his hand on 5th if he caught a brick, when he would have enough stack left (had he just called on 4th) to not be pot-committed.
But with his raise, can I really push him off with a brick on 5th when he has so little behind? My thought was I have a better chance pushing him off here, given that if he catches 5th, his low is made and he may have a straight as well, so Im buried.