Thanks all for the responses, although they are somewhat mixed which is interesting. I fired up PPT for 3rd, 4th and 5th (below, let me know if ranges don't look right), trying to be conservative with hand ranges. Given my pot odds at the time, I need ~25% to call 3rd, 12.5% for 4th and 8.7% for 5th.
It's clear that considering just equity, calling the 2bets cold on 3rd is slightly winning, and is a no-brainer on 4th/5th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FriesWithDat
3rd => hearts are live but pairs are not. I don't like limping here at this stage of the tourney with your stack but understand with up cards behind you not wanting to raise. As played I think you can make case to fold once the 7 re-raises (you limped to peel for cheap and it didn't work out). You still have rest of Stud level and Stud 8 level upcoming to find a better spot before things get expensive with Holdem and O8 blinds.
4th => catching deuce doesn't help too much here since one is already dead. Agree villain is playing Q in hole or better pretty face up ... and don't think another deuce or Q helps you very much based on action... only another heart keeps things interesting for you. I think this is an auto-fold at this stage of the tournament, especially when raised.
5th => this is a fold, price has gone up and your hand hasn't improved very much if at all since 3rd.
6th and 7th => as played seems standard
I think tournament considerations are worth factoring in if it's close, but after running the numbers I don't think any decision apart from 3rd is close now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey
I would have played every street the same as you shrug
It feels pretty naughty cold-calling 2 bets 2 streets in a row though doesn't it? It's normally something you're told to avoid in the split pot games, never really had one of these spots before in stud hi though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips
I'm folding the second time around on 3rd, but not at any other stages.
This lines up pretty nicely with the equities below. Do you agree with the ranges and if so, do you still fold 3rd for other considerations?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchOnDaRocks
I think 4th is a fold, while you are getting an overlay in terms of pot odds versus your equity there’s more to it than that
There’s reverse implied odds, two pair more than likely going to be payoff hand
And there’s also equity realization.
Fire up propokertools, input ranges, and see how often you will probably want to continue on 5th. You probably aren’t going to like what you see.
Fair point about reverse implied odds, but with regards to equity realisation - given how narrow and defined both opponents ranges are, would it not be less of a problem? It's hard to get bluffed off my equity if their hands are pretty face up. Also from 5th onwards it doesn't seem likely that I'll be squeezed again either (and if I do, I'll probs be drawing dead anyway).
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
*QQc, ccQc, [TT-AA]Qc | 24.02% | 144,066 | 87 |
[KK-AA]7d | 48.89% | 293,321 | 22 |
2hQh9h | 27.09% | 162,518 | 81 |
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
QQQc5d, AQQc5d, 5QQc5d | 33.89% | 203,343 | 2 |
[KK-AA]7d4c | 43.49% | 260,925 | 0 |
2hQh9h2s | 22.62% | 135,730 | 2 |
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
QQQc5d3h, AQQc5d3h, 5QQc5d3h | 40.40% | 242,404 | 0 |
[KK-AA]7d4cTs | 43.14% | 258,861 | 0 |
2hQh9h2sKd | 16.46% | 98,735 | 0 |
Last edited by Codfish60; 01-08-2022 at 07:56 PM.