https://replayer.runitup.com/hands/194242a69b

Stud noob here looking for a line check in a shitty spot, mostly from 3rd-5th street. This was from a $55 HORSE on Pokerstars, part of a tournament series so lots of rec players in the field. Villain 1 with Q door seemed fairly straight forward, villain with the 7 is a long time high stakes NLHE mtt player, no idea how good he is at mixed.

3rd - I feel like given position and how live my flush draw is, limp/calling seemed to be the only option. However I face 2 bets cold from a 7 which is odd, especially with 2 aces dead. I feel most people with the smaller door there would trap rolled up imo so it seems to be either 3 flush or KK/1 combo of AA.
4th - can we justify calling in the middle after bet/3bet when we have the pair to go with the live 3 flush? I feel like this was possibly a fold.
5th - given size of pot are we ever folding here getting 10:1? I thought this was more of a fold than 4th.

Flame away!

3rd => hearts are live but pairs are not. I don't like limping here at this stage of the tourney with your stack but understand with up cards behind you not wanting to raise. As played I think you can make case to fold once the 7 re-raises (you limped to peel for cheap and it didn't work out). You still have rest of Stud level and Stud 8 level upcoming to find a better spot before things get expensive with Holdem and O8 blinds.

4th => catching deuce doesn't help too much here since one is already dead. Agree villain is playing Q in hole or better pretty face up ... and don't think another deuce or Q helps you very much based on action... only another heart keeps things interesting for you. I think this is an auto-fold at this stage of the tournament, especially when raised.

5th => this is a fold, price has gone up and your hand hasn't improved very much if at all since 3rd.

6th and 7th => as played seems standard

I would have played every street the same as you shrug

I'm folding the second time around on 3rd, but not at any other stages.

I think 4th is a fold, while you are getting an overlay in terms of pot odds versus your equity there’s more to it than that

There’s reverse implied odds, two pair more than likely going to be payoff hand

And there’s also equity realization.

Fire up propokertools, input ranges, and see how often you will probably want to continue on 5th. You probably aren’t going to like what you see.

Thanks all for the responses, although they are somewhat mixed which is interesting. I fired up PPT for 3rd, 4th and 5th (below, let me know if ranges don't look right), trying to be conservative with hand ranges. Given my pot odds at the time, I need ~25% to call 3rd, 12.5% for 4th and 8.7% for 5th.

It's clear that considering just equity, calling the 2bets cold on 3rd is slightly winning, and is a no-brainer on 4th/5th.

I think tournament considerations are worth factoring in if it's close, but after running the numbers I don't think any decision apart from 3rd is close now.

It feels pretty naughty cold-calling 2 bets 2 streets in a row though doesn't it? It's normally something you're told to avoid in the split pot games, never really had one of these spots before in stud hi though.

This lines up pretty nicely with the equities below. Do you agree with the ranges and if so, do you still fold 3rd for other considerations?

Fair point about reverse implied odds, but with regards to equity realisation - given how narrow and defined both opponents ranges are, would it not be less of a problem? It's hard to get bluffed off my equity if their hands are pretty face up. Also from 5th onwards it doesn't seem likely that I'll be squeezed again either (and if I do, I'll probs be drawing dead anyway).

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: A 5 J A 2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
*QQc, ccQc, [TT-AA]Qc	24.02%	144,066	87
[KK-AA]7d	48.89%	293,321	22
2hQh9h	27.09%	162,518	81

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: A 5 J A 2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QQQc5d, AQQc5d, 5QQc5d	33.89%	203,343	2
[KK-AA]7d4c	43.49%	260,925	0
2hQh9h2s	22.62%	135,730	2

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: A 5 J A 2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QQQc5d3h, AQQc5d3h, 5QQc5d3h	40.40%	242,404	0
[KK-AA]7d4cTs	43.14%	258,861	0
2hQh9h2sKd	16.46%	98,735	0

Cool, IÂ’d add aces to the first guy and rolled up sevens possibility for the 7 up.

In this example on 5th you caught a king which gives you more outs against the queens up which you are often up against.

But other times when you catch say a 6c you probably have around 10% equity

My recommendation is to put your hand in the first row and then hit the Graph HvR and see how it looks on the next street.

Maybe people would say they continue on regardless of which I would disagree. But if you are folding on 5th or 6th you should look ahead

We havenÂ’t even looked it from the tournament perspective where the chips you win are worth less than those that you lose but thereÂ’s that too. I didnÂ’t bring that up before because I think itÂ’s a fold in a cash game or at most a very slim EV spot. But in a tournament full of weak players thereÂ’s an even greater cost to dumping pile of chips

Oh I don’t know why my post has the As in it? Sorry but I don’t feel like editing lol

On 4th if you look ahead to 5th street, 50% of the time you will have around 13% equity or less. And that street might get jammed as well. I don't just look at equity, I try and think ahead to next street and how often I will continue, how often I can have these guys smashed when getting lucky, reverse vs implied odds etc etc

That's why i think it's a poor choice of deployment of chips

I do believe 3rd is a clear continue though.

I ran it and the graph looks like the latter half of a rollercoaster. I had never used the HvR function before but I will use it more often, cheers.

nice, it's great to look at, I use it alot for PLO too mostly when determining what hands I should be calling three bets with

Tough hand all around, Honestly raising 3rd wouldn't be worst play,hearts are clean two aces out, granted your Q is out but not the worst raise. As played ughhhhhhhhh your hand reeks of hearts as played I mean utterly reeks of flush draw,with occasional rolled up. Might not be a bad time to fold. Thouigh with the raise on 3rd from the Q and you ahving a Q you can take out rolled Qs from his hand 99.9999% of time. there is two aces out so the Q should be raising there with a lot of hands Flush draws,straight-broadway hands, pocket pairs you will even see Q 10 9 -- Q K 9 two suited raised there a lot. Maybe even Q 10 8 from an aggressive player. Not in love with the call on 3rd as played at this point but I get it..

4th got stuck in middle sucks, but you have to call the way it went down. You can also upgrade the Q to possible trip 5s at this point, could also be raising naked queens, it does happen, a very aggressiv player could be checkrasing pair of 5s with three to a flush, but highly unlikely in a tournament, plus takes a special type of maniac aggressive player for that

5th Now this couild get creative if and only IF your opponents make laydowns.. That is a big IF. you hit the K, if you are going to call 5th, you could check raise it.. I mean your hand would reek of rolled ups if you did that. or some flush draw that backed into kings up. Im telling ya, naked queens or naked aces could fold there, I know the pot is big, but Damn you would look like rolled nines or backdoor kings up. I knwo the pot is big, but I would sigh fold there, people just aren't capable of pulling bluffs like that, I know it is limit but if you had trips there, only hand that can call is two pair or trips

6th and 7th as played , your call on 6th is only option