This is the same villain from the other thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/20...round-1217785/). This hand 18 of the razz round of HU 8-game.

1) This kinda relates to question 2) from the other thread. Villain raises my made J with a draw to a 6. Is this ever correct for value? I'm also assuming this could work as a bluff on later streets if he picks up well but against my board, I could also be drawing to a 6 right?

2) Is 7th always a check? Is this villain dependent?

3) An obvious fold if he bets 7th?

Poker Stars Limit Razz Tournament - t50/t100 Limit + t10 - 2 players

Seat 1: t835 M = 8.79
Hero (): t2165 M = 22.79

3rd Street: (0.4 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 6____Seat 1 brings in for $15____Seat 1 calls
Hero: 3 T 4___Hero completes

4th Street: (2.4 SB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 6 K____Seat 1 calls
Hero: 3 T 4 6___Hero bets

5th Street: (2.2 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 6 K 3____Seat 1 raises
Hero: 3 T 4 6 J___Hero bets___Hero calls

6th Street: (6.2 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 6 K 3 Q____Seat 1 calls
Hero: 3 T 4 6 J 9___Hero bets

7th Street: (8.2 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 6 K 3 Q xx____Seat 1 checks
Hero: 3 T 4 6 J 9 K___Hero checks

1) A draw to a 6 is a good favorite over a made J, yes. It'll usually be a favorite over a made rough 8. The general rule is that the best draw on 5th is usually the favorite.

2) 7th is a check unless you think you can get him to fold better. He probably won't call with worse.

3) Depends on the player. Without some pretty good reads I check-call.

+1

The only way villain calls with worse on 7th is if villain catches precisely a J, and there are only three of those left in the deck. You'd never be in the hand at that point if you couldn't beat a Q low already, so villain should be folding if he bricks the last street. So betting 7th here would be pretty terrible, since it's highly improbable villain ever folds better, like a 10 or a 9, given how many bets have already gone in the pot.

The better draw is always the favorite if the made hand is a T or worse, including 432AK vs. T532A and 8765K vs. T932A. Against a made 9 it's more complicated. 842AK is a 51% favorite over (7-7-98A), which is a 51% favorite over 7654K, which is a 57% favorite against 842AK. 762AK is a 50.3% favorite over (5-5-976), which is a 51.6% favorite over 6543K, which is a 54.8% favorite over 762AK. You need a wheel draw against a 975. 432AK is a flip against (5-5-96A).

A made 8 is always the favorite HU, barring dead cards. How close it is depends on the cards you can't see - 87654 is better than 8732A against 432AK.

QQJ87 vs. A2333 or A23KK is a flip (the stronger hand has 50.05%); if the second Q were a J or the 87 a 76, the 4-card hand would be the favorite.

3-way, any 8 is a dog to two smoother draws, it just occurs less often with 8532A than 87654.

Meh, it's a HUHU pot, there are a lot of ways for hero to get to the river and not be able to beat a Q. Really depends on game flow.

Even choosing 3 random cards from the deck for our downcards, it's exceedingly probable we have a J or better, no? Not to mention the fact that we've been pretty enthusiastic about our hand the whole way? I mean, of course you're sometimes right, but I think it's pretty rare that we don't have a J here.

Yeah it's a lot less likely than I would have thought, maybe 6%. Doesn't mean you won't get looked up but Q should not expect to be good much.

Okay, that makes me feel better. From your other posts, I'd usually expect I'm wrong if you disagree with me.

why are u betting 5th?

good question

He probably didn't know his made J was a massive underdog to any reasonable draw (and that this villain would find it in himself to raise for value), hence question 1. 5th is an easy check/fold, particularly since this villain is certainly capable of checking back if paired.

Yeah I spent the last half an hour pondering why I should've checked instead of bet 5th, so instead let the PPT do the talking. Now I know why. lol. I guess the Kc on 4th kinda got me excited into thinking I'm ahead. That must be some sort cognitive bias or fallacy working there. Another leak plugged. Thanks for spotting that guys.

I found out that from 6th that it was a coinflip.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.16 Professional)
Razz, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 2s4d/6dKc3s
PLAYER_2 3cTd/4h6sJh
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Lo %	Ties Lo %	Wins Lo Count	Ties Lo Count
2s4d/6dKc3s	72.7593%	72.1405%	1.2377%	432843	7426
3cTd/4h6sJh	27.2407%	26.6218%	1.2377%	159731	7426

Not always, although you have to look hard to find exceptions, and they're close. For instance, 654AT is a slight favorite over 65325, even though 6532 is a slightly better four card hand than 654A.

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

671,580 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
654AT	50.42%	338,586	81
65325	49.58%	332,913	81

Shouldn't really affect the way you play it, since such cases are rare and are virtual coinflips.

after villain flats 4th and 3rd and more than likely doesnt pair the 3 id c/f in this sng