He is well ahead of your range. A bet will also result in your folding about 30% of the time when you have 3 bricks or whatever.

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: K 4 8 T Q J

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
6 7 8 K	58.97%	353,772	154
* * 4 K	41.03%	246,074	154

Oh, so he had the bottom of the range I put him on.

I think you are vastly overrating how important immediate odds are here to defend. You are looking at showdown equity. Your odds to call down are a lost worse than 4.1:1 and your implied odds are terrible

Another interesting question is what edges are worth bets in medium-late stage limit tournaments where BBs are so hard to come buy?

A previous poster said 45% was now value town. Where do we draw the line?

I'd check a Jack, now a Ten seems pretty close and when we consider that Jason should know that you're almost always check-calling 7th after betting 6th (in theory), I think he won't auto bluff his bricks on 7th and that isn't great for us. It's hard to know how frequently he will bluff though, and in general this ambiguity is bad for Bart here when two big bets here represent such a high % of Bart's stack. In a vast majority of run-outs, Bart won't be able to value bet twice, in which case keeping this spot as a +1 bet or -1 bet spot total on 6th+7th in a "close enough" to neutral EV (slightly +ev) is the way to go, IMO.

Also, it's important to analyze the value winning that extra 30k bet has on our chances to get 6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, and win the tournament compared to the negative effect of losing the additional bet that would leave us with a fraction of what the next shortest stack has.


Side note: if we catch a 3 or 5 here (obviously we bet) I would fire on 7th unimproved since these two cards are the most likely cards to have paired us on 6th and the cards Jason should be most likely to hero call you on the end if he finishes with a T, J or Q.

If you catch A or 8 then I'd bet 6th and check 7th unimproved.

"I think he won't auto bluff his bricks on 7th and that isn't great for us".
It actually is good for us. We don't want him to bluff that frequently and force us to put one of our last 2-3 remaining bets in to hero call him.