Does cold 3-betting from the bringin work? - Stud Poker

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Other Poker Games Stud

Does cold 3-betting from the bringin work?

Post Reply Subscribe

...

06-24-2015 , 09:12 PM

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Seven Card Stud

Ben Sulsky is the bring in with the 2

, and Chris Klodnicki completes with the 9

. Jean-Robert Bellande shows the 7

, and he raises.

Sulsky then reraises. Chris Klodnicki thinks for a few moments, then mucks his cards. Bellande folds as well, and Sulsky wins the pot on third street.

Ben Sulsky - 245,000
Chris Klodnicki - 2,400,000
Jean-Robert Bellande - 710,000

This is from Stud high in the $50K 10-game. There are 16 players left, close to the bubble, with low stack to bet ratios, so people may fold more.

I assume Sulsky had the best hand, but surprised he could get the folds to easily.

Quote

06-25-2015 , 12:47 AM

CarlosChadha

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

Seven Card Stud

Ben Sulsky is the bring in with the 2

, and Chris Klodnicki completes with the 9

. Jean-Robert Bellande shows the 7

The 7c should always have the chip EV to call for one more bet in a pot that had over 6 bets. But as you mentioned ICM means that the chips that he losses (the majority of the time when up against a big pair) will be worth less than the chips he gains when he sucks out. You'd never get a fold if this was not near the bubble.

Quote

06-25-2015 , 06:43 PM

ceegee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6,551

JRB likely was re-stealing here, and had the worst of it, but curious if he should be folding to the 3-bet.

Quote

06-25-2015 , 09:29 PM

CarlosChadha

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceegee

JRB likely was re-stealing here, and had the worst of it, but curious if he should be folding to the 3-bet.

I took a look at the coverage and saw that they were paying top 12, so with 16 left they are not THAT close to the bubble. I think that JRB was either reraising more than game theory optimal and correctly folded to the 3 bet because his hand was super weak or he was reraising close to an optimal amount and made a too tight fold to the 3bet, even when taking into account ICM.

Quote

06-26-2015 , 02:42 AM

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Actually, there were 14 players left 12 paying, so on the bubble. Sulsky was very short, but Bellande was also short. Both recovered and made the final table. Bellande is HU now. Klodnicki was the big stack on the bubble with a high card showing, so was probably completing with anything. Bellande probably new this and was restealing light, but got caught.

Quote

06-26-2015 , 05:26 PM

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

you dont know if he had the best hand, if his stack was low and he was trying to pick a spot to race. easily he could have 22A here or three decent clubs.

Quote

06-27-2015 , 07:28 PM

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray Zee

you dont know if he had the best hand, if his stack was low and he was trying to pick a spot to race. easily he could have 22A here or three decent clubs.

Given the folds on 3rd street, he probably had the best hand, even if it was 22A or whatever, whether or not he thought it was best when he 3-bet.

Quote

06-28-2015 , 07:09 PM

Davdob

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,068

Just using 2 A 2 as a pretty good hand for Sulsky, and probably about the middle of his range, Bellande has the street equity to call off with ATC. Seems like it had to be a very conservative play to save chips for the bubble.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
* *	7c	43.99%	263,899
2 A	2	56.01%	336,076

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...