I was an observer in this hand - Commerce 20/40 game. Seat 5 plays a ton of stud, and is for the most part solid, but he plays crazy hours. He can be prone to overplaying his hands. This hand took place on a Saturday. He had been playing non-stop since some time on Thursday. He had converted a real nice stack of $4K plus into maybe $1,000 by then. I am presenting this hand from his perspective.

Seat 3 is a pro, who has been playing for decades. These two guys play against each other all the time. I think Seat 3 is by far the better player. In my time playing against him, I have not seen him do anything stupid or get out of line.

These two ended-up heads up on this hand.

Seat 5: JJJ
Seat 3: xx 4

Seat 1 brings-in. Folds to Seat 3 who completes. Seat 5 raises. Everyone else folds. A raise war ensues. Seat 3 stops raising after six bets go in.

Fourth Street:

Seat 5: JJJ7
Seat 3: xx 48

Seat 5 bets. Seat 3 calls.

Fifth Street

Seat 5: JJJ79
Seat 3: xx 48A

Seat 3 bets. What is Seat 5's play? Aces and Jacks are live.

seat 3 should have 444 or aa4

i've not looked at a ppt sim like this before but i'm guessing jjj isnt far ahead of that range if it even is

i'm guessing as well there's more combos of 444 after this 5th than aa4 but idk if that is a worthwhile consideration

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i think if I were seat 5 i would just call and hope to fill, and then pay that man his maney if i don't

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Probably flat and raise 6th

I'm putting in a raise somewhere. Either 5th or 6th. 6th sounds good. If I get 3bet and he has trip aces, so be it.

I think I prefer raising now? Issue is that we risk accidentally pairing our board and missing the raise completely.

Seat 3 should have exactly AA for HC, and now trip aces. Call down mode. The six bets on 3rd means Seat 3 played this hand poorly, or Seat 5 is a total maniac.

Raising 5th looks so strong that I am hesitant, we are likely far ahead and I don't want to kill action if villain is bluffing or way overplaying his hand

Given your descriptions in OP, S5 should reraise now. He's at the very top of his range and S3 probably isn't giving him that much credit. If S3 reraises, time to slow down.

Cool hand btw. I love you guys!

Call down unless he fills. Seat 3s range on third is rolled 4s, large pairs (specifically AA) and maybe some small quantity of 456s or 4AKs, which should be heavily discounted when it is six bets on third. Given he doesn't raise 4th, but donks 5th, ranges can be narrowed to the stronger part of that range. Raiding and reopening the betting here would be a disaster. If seat 5 wants to raise unimproved, he should wait until 7th when he opponent won't know if he filled or not.

Seat 5 called.

Sixth street:

Seat 5: JJJ793
Seat 3: xx 48A8

Seat 3 bets. What is seat 5's play now?

Call and fold river if you don't fill, or prob crying call at that point.

Raise

Can't beat 444 anymore...I guess now I would just call and call river UI or raise if I fill. Betting if checked to on 7, obviously.

What are you putting villain on?

2 pair most of the time

Do you really need a simulator to tell you how we are doing against a range of 444 and AAA? Hint: there are the same number of combos of each.

This whole thread is amazing, really shows how fastplaying always makes sense, super solid guy jams it up and people still want to raise him.

Where we are in our range only matters for how often we need to call down. If the guys board was AAAA and you had rolled up would you keep raising because you are at the top of your range?

yeah brain fart ldo

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You're crazy.

OP, if you don't have an estimate, cool, but how often do you see six bets on 3rd in this game?

How often have you seen seat 3 make it five bets on 3rd?

The only reason I ask is that if seat three has been playing live a long time, he may have a wider 3rd-street-jam range, but I'm pretty sure seat five's options are call or fold, and I'm really not sure about fold.

I almost never see six bets on third in this game. There is one maniac that does it once in a while, sometimes with nothing. He was not in this session.

I have never seen seat 3 do this, in maybe 30 hours where I have been at the table with him.

Would seat 3 ever do this with a A24hhh type hand?

Cool. I haven't played the C 20/40 since the 90s. These 3rd street jams were more popular in the past.

I was assuming that since Seat 5 was playing 48 hrs he may have been cranked, and that seat 3 would have known this and could have jammed light -- either to isolate, to show down cheaply, or to draw cheaply.

I probably shouldn't comment on these live-game threads since it's almost impossible to figure them out without being there, and for me, hard to figure even if I'm there.

This is like, the basics of poker, but when someone raises it's for a reason and you gain new information each bet, so at a certain point you have to say, "gee guess he has JJJ and AA4 is gonna need to catch up". Or something to that effect. It's a huge leak to not take your opponents raises seriously against at all sober opponents.

I mean, how many bets does it take?